• Edmonton going back to QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson in a must-win game: He has the third-highest big-time throw rate at 5.3% while also having the second-lowest turnover-worthy play rate at 3.3%.
• CB Garry Peters is in the midst of another dominant season for BC: His 0.44 yards per coverage snap allowed average is the lowest among any corner or halfback
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
EDMONTON ELKS VS. WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
The Elks suffered a tough loss to the Blue Bombers last week, giving them just their second loss in seven games. This immediate rematch now becomes a near must-win for them. An Elks loss could put them five points out of a playoff spot with just three games remaining. That could effectively end their season, barring a whole host of things going right for them down the stretch. The Elks will need to find a way to slow down Winnipeg RB Brady Oliveira (89.6 season grade), who rushed for 134 yards last week with a ridiculous 5.9 yards after contact per carry average. The Bombers are sure to lean heavily on Oliveira once again as they look to clinch a playoff spot with a victory. If Edmonton can limit his effectiveness, however, the Elks can potentially take advantage of a struggling Zach Collaros (73.2) and Winnipeg’s ineffective passing game and delay The Bombers’ celebration.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR EUGENE LEWIS, EDMONTON VS. CB TERRELL BONDS, WINNIPEG
Lewis had a great 31-yard touchdown grab last week after Winnipeg busted coverage on a flea flicker, but other than that he was effectively shut down. He had just one other catch for 15 yards on a second-and-long against soft coverage. Bonds did a great job, as he’s done all season. The boundary corner has nine forced incompletions this year, tied for sixth-most in the CFL. While Lewis has been good this season, he hasn’t quite been his dominant self. His 68.9 receiving grade ranks ninth, and he’s averaging an 11th-best 1.53 yards per route run. If Edmonton wants to come out of this game with a win, Lewis will have to have a superstar performance.
PLAYER TO WATCH: QB MCLEOD BETHEL-THOMPSON, EDMONTON
After taking a backseat to QB Tre Ford last week, Bethel-Thompson will be getting back in the driver’s seat for this one. While Ford offers far more of a rushing threat when he’s out there, MBT has been the better quarterback this season. Bethel-Thompson’s 90.3 passing grade ranks third in the CFL. He has the third-highest big-time throw rate at 5.3% while also having the second-lowest turnover-worthy play rate at 3.3%. Right now, MBT gives Edmonton the best chance to win, and he’ll need to have one of his most impressive games yet to keep Edmonton in the playoff hunt with a win this weekend.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS VS. BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS
Hamilton completed the season series sweep against the Toronto Argonauts last week and has now won three straight games. That sweep could loom large, as the Tiger-Cats are only two games back of Toronto for that final playoff spot in the East. A win here would put a ton of pressure on Toronto down the stretch. Hamilton’s late-season surge has been led by QB Bo Levi Mitchell, who is playing phenomenally as of late. Over the past five games, Mitchell has 11 big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play in addition to a 90.5 overall grade during that span. A strong pass rush from EDGE Mathieu Betts (13 pressures in three games since his return) and EDGE Sione Teuhema (38 total pressures this season, 10th most) could be huge in leading the Lions to victory. A win here for B.C. pushes them to just a half-game away from a playoff berth.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR SHEMAR BRIDGES, HAMILTON VS. CB GARRY PETERS, BRITISH COLUMBIA
Bridges is arguably the favorite for the CFL's Most Outstanding Rookie, and for good reason. The young receiver ranks second in receptions (79) and fourth in yards (906). His 23 explosive receptions rank fifth, and he’s averaging a 10th-best 2.54 yards per route run. Cue Peters, who is the CFL's most physical boundary corner. Peters has allowed just 20 catches for 223 yards this season with an interception and 10 forced incompletions. His 0.44 yards per coverage snap allowed average is the lowest among any corner or halfback. It’s been hard to slow down Bridges all season, but Peters can completely take him out of the game. If he can, that could spell doom for the Hamilton offense and their chances to win this game.
PLAYER TO WATCH: QB BO LEVI MITCHELL, HAMILTON
There isn’t a QB playing better than Mitchell has been for the past five weeks. While he didn’t have the greatest start to the year, Mitchell has been instrumental in helping Hamilton fight back into the playoff race. Since Week 11, Mitchell has 11 big-time throws against just one turnover-worthy play. He leads the league with a 12.4-yard average depth of target. All this is contributing to Mitchell’s impressive 89.7 passing grade over that span. More importantly, Hamilton is 3-2 over that span (with three wins in a row) and making a late-season playoff push. If Mitchell can have another big game, and Hamilton wins, look for him to rocket into the Most Outstanding Player discussion.
OTTAWA REDBLACKS VS. SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS
The Redblacks have been one of the best stories in the league this season, as they've already doubled their win total from a year ago. However, two straight losses have left them searching for answers as they try to hang on to second place in the East. After an injury to starting QB Dru Brown, the Redblacks will turn to veteran Jeremiah Masoli this week. Masoli has been solid this season, putting up a 73.5 overall grade in his limited playtime. Will that be enough against such a good Saskatchewan defense? The Roughriders won their first game since Week 7 last week and will be looking to add to that to keep a hold on that final playoff spot. With both Edmonton and Hamilton nipping at their heels, they’ll need QB Trevor Harris (91.5 passing grade) to continue his strong play. If he does, it could be enough to lead them to victory.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: LT DRAKE CENTERS, OTTAWA VS. ED ANTHONY LANIER II, SASKATCHEWAN
With starting LT Dino Boyd out for multiple weeks, the all-important left tackle position falls to Centers, who has struggled when he’s played this season. He’s lost nearly 18% of his pass-blocking snaps this season, and his 94.3 pass-blocking efficiency score is the second-lowest mark among any offensive lineman this season. Across from him, it looks like Lanier will return to action for the first time since Week 8. The versatile defensive lineman had 24 total pressures at the time of his injury, fifth-most in the CFL. His 6.4 pass-rushing productivity score was a top-10 mark. This could be a great matchup for Lanier to return and pick up right where he left off.
PLAYER TO WATCH: HB ROLAN MILLIGAN, SASKATCHEWAN
When you’re being talked about as a legitimate candidate for Most Outstanding Player as a defender, you know you’re having a good season. Milligan has been fantastic for Saskatchewan, leading the league with six interceptions and ranking second with 11 forced incompletions. He’s also had four dropped interceptions, so that first number could be even higher. His 85.3 coverage grade ranks fourth in the CFL. On top of his impressive defensive ability, Milligan has made 18 special teams tackles and a 91.1 special teams grade, both of which rank fourth in the league.
MONTREAL ALOUETTES VS. TORONTO ARGONAUTS
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Argonauts, who have both never won more than two games in a row and never lost more than two games in a row. They’ll have impressive performances, like beating the B.C. Lions 33-17 two weeks ago, and then followed that up with duds, like losing to Hamilton 33-31 last week. They don’t have the consistency of a year ago when they were the No. 1 team. Meanwhile, Montreal is the model of consistency this season. The league’s No. 1 team ended its two-game winless streak with a dominant defensive performance last week and will be looking to lock up the No. 1 seed in the CFL playoffs with a win this weekend. Montreal QB Cody Fajardo is playing his best football, ranking second in big-time throw percentage (5.3%) while having the league's lowest turnover-worthy play rate (2.4%). A big game from him could be enough to propel Montreal to that win.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: LG PIER OLIVIER-LESTAGE, MONTREAL VS. DI JAKE CERESNA, TORONTO
This is truly a best-vs-best matchup and one that could entirely shape the outcome of the game. On one side there’s Lestage, arguably the best lineman in the CFL. Lestage has allowed just nine pressures on 509 pass-blocking snaps this season. That 1.8% pressure allowed percentage is the lowest in the league. Across from him will often be Ceresna, one of the best pass rushers in Canada. Ceresna’s 82.4 pass-rushing grade ranks fifth in the CFL. His 14.2% pass rush win rate ranks fourth, and his 42 total pressures are the sixth-most in the league. If he can find a way to do what nobody has done and get past Lestage to pressure Montreal’s passing offense, it could be enough to lead Toronto to victory.
PLAYER TO WATCH: LB TYRICE BEVERETTE, MONTREAL
Another defender in the running for Most Outstanding Player gets the highlight here. Beverette has been incredibly impressive all season long for Montreal. He’s the leader of their defense and is asked to do anything and everything for the Alouettes. Beverette leads the league in defensive snaps (841) and is grading above average in run defense, pass rush, and coverage. He has the second-most tackles (112) with one of the lowest missed-tackle rates among linebackers. Beverette also leads the entire league with a special teams grade of 91.8. At this point, if Montreal asked Beverette to play on offense it would not be a surprise if he excelled there too. That’s how good Beverette has been at all phases of football this season.
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