• PFF Greenline has a fair line of 3.4 in favor of Oregon State. Bet the Beavers -2.5.
• A $20 bet on Oregon State -2.5 (-110) could return $38.18.
Boise State @ Oregon State
The market opened at Oregon State -4, but there was resistance moving the line through the key number of three and settling at -2.5. The push through three has created some value against the move, as PFF has a fair line of 3.4 in favor of Oregon State. Given that one of the more valuable numbers is now on our side, we're taking Oregon State to cover. We would expect Oregon State to cover this line 54.8% of the time.
Boise State’s offensive line struggled last season, allowing a sack or a hit on 12.3% of passing snaps, ranking 7th worst in the FBS. Good news for Boise State fans is that they have a new-look line this season, when three of the five positions are expected to feature players, including RT Cade Beresford, who transferred from Washington State. Beresford posted an 87.9 grade in pass protection, allowing only one pressure in 249 snaps last season, and he should be an immediate upgrade.
But even if the Broncos’ offensive line manages to keep QB Hank Bachmeier on his feet, they have a new problem to deal with: no Khalil Shakir. The standout receiver led the team with 119 targets last season, amassing almost 1,200 yards, 2.84 yards per route and an impressive 58 first downs on 79 catches. Stefan Cobbs will be the guy this year, but can he keep drives alive like Shakir did last year? On the other side of things, there is real buzz around the Oregon State camp that they have their best defense in years, making for an intriguing matchup when Boise State has possession.
As for Oregon State, not much will change. They will protect the football. QB Chance Nolan won the starting job and is improving all the time, but he will not be asked to do too much. There is potential that he will run the ball more this year — and they have four or five running backs deserving of carries — but it looks set to be Deshaun Fenwick and Trey Lowe mixing it up while freshman Damien Martinez fills in the gaps.
Boise State has potential to be the better team come the end of the season, but the Broncos have a lot of questions to answer early on. With home-field advantage and a sturdier foundation, Oregon State is a deserved favorite heading into the season opener.
Best Bet: Oregon State -2.5
PFF Greenline is a betting model that uses the wealth of data that PFF collects to predict within a game of football the likelihood of outcomes, which are then compared to the betting market’s assessment of those same outcomes in an attempt to find ‘value’ bets, or in simpler terms, find bets with outcomes that are more likely to occur than the betting odds suggest.
Since its inception, Greenline has steadily increased in profitability, with last season producing the best figures yet. When betting lines that Greenline determined had a 2% or greater edge, the NCAA model posted a record of 21-16 on spreads (56.76%), a record of 91-63 on totals (59.09%) and a record of 44-59 on money lines (42.72%) at average odds of +160, equal to an expected 38.46% success rate. Betting every 2%+ value bet during 2021 would have produced a return on investment of 11.64%.
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