- Head coach: Lincoln Riley (third season)
- 2023 record: 8-5 (Won Holiday Bowl)
- PFF power ranking: 23rd
- Chance to win Big Ten: 4%
- Strength of schedule: 1st
- Projected win total: 6.6
- FanDuel win total: 7.5
- 2024 recruiting rank (On3): No. 1 nationally, No. 3 in the Big Ten
USC has College Football Playoff hopes in 2023 as it returned a Heisman Trophy winner (Caleb Williams) and one of the nation’s best offensive minds in head coach Lincoln Riley. While that side of the ball remained very strong, it was the defense that was the Trojans’ undoing.
USC allowed 34.4 points per game last year, the sixth most in the Power Five. The Trojans made improvements this offseason, hiring a rising star at defensive coordinator in UCLA’s D’Anton Lynn and adding several key transfers. The offense should still be very good even after losing Williams, its leading rusher (MarShawn Lloyd), top two receivers and two starting offensive linemen to the NFL.
The question is: How much improvement will the defense make as USC debuts in the Big Ten and battles the most difficult schedule in the country?
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Biggest Strength: High-upside skill players on offense
While Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams is no longer with the program, head Lincoln Riley always seems to produce elite play on offense. His offenses have placed among the Power Five’s top 10 in EPA per play every year since he became Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator in 2015. USC added a very good running back in the transfer portal in Mississippi State’s Woody Marks. While quarterback Miller Moss and the receiving corps are inexperienced, they’ve shown high-end flashes.
Biggest Weakness: How quickly will the defense improve?
While his offenses have been elite, defense has been the bane of Riley’s existence. His defenses at USC finished 118th and 123rd in EPA per play in his two years there. There’s some reason for optimism on that side of the ball, namely the hire of former UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. In his first year running the defense, the Bruins finished eighth in expected points allowed per play after placing 111th the prior season. Trojans fans are hoping he can turn around their defense just as quickly.
2023 Team Overview
Offense |
||||
| EPA per play | Yards per play | Successful play rate | Explosive run play rate | Explosive pass play rate |
| 0.179 | 7.3 | 40.1% | 23.6% | 18.3% |
| 9th | 3rd | 12th | 1st | 22nd |
Defense |
||||
| EPA allowed per play | Yards allowed per play | Successful play rate allowed | Explosive run rate allowed | Explosive pass rate allowed |
| 0.102 | 6.2 | 36.7% | 17.2% | 15.0% |
| 119th | T-109th | 101st | 106th | T-86th |
Three Notable Transfer Portal Additions
- RB Woody Marks (Mississippi State): 82.0 PFF grade
- S Akili Arnold (Oregon State): 80.3 PFF grade
- S Kamari Ramsey (UCLA): 79.4 PFF grade
Three Notable Transfer Portal Losses
- CB Domani Jackson (Alabama): 60.7 PFF grade
- WR Dorian Singer (Utah): 62.9 PFF grade
- WR Mario Williams (Tulane): 66.6 PFF grade
Quarterback Spotlight: Miller Moss
2023 Grade: 90.7
Key Stat: Six passing touchdowns, 89.3 passing grade in first career start (Holiday Bowl vs. Louisville)
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