Rose Bowl Game: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines preview

2TBE8M3 Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy reacts to a video replay during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Ohio State, Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023, in Ann Arbor, Mich. Michigan won 30-24. (AP Photo/David Dermer)

• Watch out for Terrion Arnold: Most teams typically target Arnold over Kool-Aid McKinstry, but that doesn’t mean it works out any better for them. Arnold actually has the higher coverage grade and has recorded five more interceptions.

• Michigan LB Michael Barrett could play a big role: Barrett not only boasts the second-highest overall grade in the FBS, but he also has the highest pass-rushing grade at his position, with 17 pressures to his name this season.

• Dig into the numbers for yourself: PFF's Premium Stats is the most in-depth collection of NFL and NCAA player performance data. Subscribe today to get full access!

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

Alabama Player to watch: CB Terrion Arnold (90.0 PFF Grade)

Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry are top cornerback prospects on PFF's 2024 NFL Draft big board. Most teams typically choose to target Arnold over McKinstry, but that doesn’t mean it works out any better for them — Arnold actually has the higher coverage grade and has recorded five more interceptions. When opposing quarterbacks do target Arnold, they are putting up a measly 51.3 passer rating.

Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry: Coverage statistics in 2023
Terrion Arnold PFF Metric Kool-Aid McKinstry
71 Targets 37
38 Receptions 17
53.5% Comp. % 45.9%
5 Interceptions 0
13 Total forced incompletions 10
5.9 Coverage snaps per target 11.6
11.0 Coverage snaps per reception allowed 25.3
51.3 Passer rating allowed 70.0
86.3 Coverage grade 86.9

Player to watch for Michigan: LB Michael Barrett (81.5)

Michigan’s linebackers will have to step up to keep Milroe in check. Barrett not only boasts the second-highest overall grade in the FBS, but he also has the highest pass-rushing grade at his position, with 17 pressures to his name this season.

Keys to an Alabama victory

The Tide’s pass rush will need to get to J.J. McCarthy, who has faced pressure on only 29.9% of his dropbacks this season. The Michigan quarterback is one of the best in the country from a clean pocket and boasts a 90.1 clean-pocket passing grade this season. However, that mark drops to 71.2 under pressure.

If Alabama can get out to an early lead and rattle McCarthy, it will be tough for Michigan to come back, as they have not been in that position all season and struggle playing from behind when they’re forced to throw the ball.

Keys to a Michigan victory

This Michigan team ranks seventh in run-play percentage at 55.3%, and that typically works against 99% of teams because of their big men up front. That doesn’t necessarily bode well against Alabama, who can match their physicality.

Blake Corum can only do so much against this front seven, so the Wolverines will need J.J. McCarthy to step up and prove that he’s a first-round-caliber quarterback.

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