• Texas–Texas A&M: The Longhorns and Aggies reignite their previously dormant rivalry with the winner meeting Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
• South Carolina–Clemson: Both the Gamecocks and the Tigers aren’t dead yet in the College Football Playoff race.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 32 minutes
We’ve officially made it to the final weekend of the college football regular season and yet the College Football Playoff couldn’t be murkier.
With so many upsets last week, the playoff picture remains wide open with less than two weeks before Selection Sunday. Because of that, there are still so many critical games for determining the final 12 teams.
So, we will be previewing 11 games for the first time all season. Here are the playoff implications, matchups to watch and predictions for the biggest games of Week 14.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 25 Colorado Buffaloes (Friday, 12 PM EST on ABC)
Playoff implications: Colorado needs to win and receive some help to get to the Big 12 Championship Game
After losing to Kansas on Saturday, Colorado no longer controls its own destiny in the Big 12 and, by proxy, the College Football Playoff race.
In order to make the Big 12 title game and have a chance to automatically qualify for a playoff spot, the Buffaloes need to beat Oklahoma State and hope that two of Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU lose. If only BYU goes down, Colorado can still book a trip to Dallas if Texas Tech beats West Virginia.
Matchup to watch when Colorado has the ball (Dalton): Will Colorado continue to be so one-dimensional despite Oklahoma State’s porous run defense?
With Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter, and their plethora of weapons in tow, Colorado is obviously going to operate with a pass-first mentality on offense. However, every team needs balance, and the Buffaloes have been nearly unstoppable when they find some semblance of a running game.
Colorado has won all five games where it rushed for at least 100 yards, scoring 36 points per game in the process. When the Buffaloes haven’t eclipsed 100 rushing yards, their record is 3-3 while scoring 28 points or less in those three losses. Certainly, the lack of a consistent run game isn’t the only reason they’ve lost those games, but their lack of ability to control possession can be a problem.
They could have an opportunity to re-establish their ground game against an Oklahoma State outfit that ranks dead last in the Power Four in run-defense grade. The Cowboys have also missed the most tackles in run defense in the Power Four while allowing an outrageous 5.8 yards per designed carry.
Colorado would be wise to give running backs Isaiah Augustave, Dallan Hayden, and the rest of its running backs a fair chance to succeed against a vulnerable run defense.
Matchup to watch when Oklahoma State has the ball (Max): How does Colorado’s run-defense respond against Ollie Gordon II?
One of the biggest reasons for Colorado’s success this season has been the massive improvement from its run defense. The Buffaloes are currently 41st in team run-defense grade after placing 122nd last year.
That all unraveled this past Saturday against Kansas. The Jayhawks ran for 332 yards on Colorado, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. It’s the most rushing yards the Buffaloes have allowed under head coach Deion Sanders, even more than anything last year’s porous defense allowed.
They’ll need to bounce back this week against Oklahoma State and Ollie Gordon II. While it’s been an extremely disappointing season for the reigning Doak Walker Award winner, he is coming off his two best performances of the season against TCU (121 rushing yards) and Texas Tech (156 rushing yards). With a true freshman in Maealiuaki Smith under center, the Cowboys are likely going to need to rely on Gordon in this game.
Predictions
Dalton: Colorado 42, Oklahoma State 24
Colorado plays before the rest of its Big 12 competition, so the Buffaloes should still be motivated to play despite losing control of their destiny. Their offense should have plenty of chances to put up points and pick up a ninth win, which should be considered a success regardless of their playoff fate.
Max: Colorado 42, Oklahoma State 21
Shedeur Sanders has a big day against a struggling Oklahoma State defense and Colorado bounces back from its loss to Kansas. The Buffaloes must then hope further chaos occurs in the Big 12 on Saturday to send them to the title game.
No. 15 South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 12 Clemson Tigers (12 PM ET on ESPN)
Playoff implications: Both are still fighting for an at-large bid
Neither Clemson nor South Carolina is in the playoff at the moment, but that can certainly change. They’re currently two of the first four teams out and the winner of this game might only need one of the current at-large teams to slip up in order to take advantage.
Of the two, Clemson is more likely to receive the bid as the higher-ranked team with two losses while South Carolina has three. There’s also a chance that the Tigers could receive an automatic qualifier as the ACC Champion. While this game won’t affect whether Clemson plays for the ACC title, a Miami loss to Syracuse would send the Tigers to Charlotte to take on SMU.
The Gamecocks have been red-hot recently, winning their last five games after starting 3-3 on the season. It might prove tough for South Carolina to jump Alabama and Ole Miss for an at-large spot though, considering they also lost three games and each beat the Gamecocks earlier this season. If South Carolina can beat Clemson though, there is a chance it can sneak into the 12-team field with further chaos at the top.
Matchup to watch when South Carolina has the ball (Dalton): Will the Gamecocks continue their elite production after the catch?
During their five-game winning streak, the Gamecocks' passing game has improved across the board. LaNorris Sellers is making better decisions, especially under pressure, their screen game has become a dynamic component of their offense, and they’ve created yards after the catch at an elite level.
That last part is the most intriguing when you consider that through their first seven games, the Gamecocks ranked 105th in the country with just 5.2 yards after catch per reception. Over the last four weeks, that number has risen 9.7 yards, which leads the FBS in that span.
Along with Sellers getting the ball to the proper place on time, receiving threats like Dalevon Campbell, Joshua Simon, and Raheim Sanders have taken advantage of this newfound approach by creating explosive plays with the ball in their hands.
As a result, South Carolina’s pass catchers have forced the most missed tackles in the nation over the past four weeks while creating the seventh-highest rate of explosive plays. All of this will be a factor against a Clemson defense that has been slightly below average at preventing yards after the catch this season.
Matchup to watch when Clemson has the ball (Max): Can Clemson establish the run?
South Carolina’s pass defense has been impenetrable this season. The Gamecocks are third in the FBS in defensive grade on passing plays (92.8), placing second in pass-rushing grade and seventh in coverage grade. While Cade Klubnik has improved dramatically this season (86.7 passing grade compared to 63.9 in 2023), it’s unlikely that Clemson can win this game off his arm alone.
The Tigers might be able to find some success with their run game. While South Carolina’s run defense is by no means a true weakness (37th in EPA per run), it is the one area where opposing offenses have found some success. The Gamecocks had their worst performance in a close win over Missouri two weeks ago, allowing Nate Noel to run for 150 yards with 78 coming before contact.
It should be noted that Missouri is seventh among FBS teams in run-blocking grade while Clemson is just 68th. But between Phil Mafah and Klubnik, Clemson’s run game can still be dangerous. Mafah’s fourth among ACC tailbacks with 1,012 rushing yards while Klubnik is third among the conference’s quarterbacks with 460 yards on the ground.
If Clemson can establish the run on early downs, it puts less pressure on Klubnik to have the game of his life against an elite pass rush and secondary.
Predictions
Dalton: South Carolina 28, Clemson 20
Clemson has yet to prove they can beat an elite opponent, and the Gamecocks are playing like one right now. South Carolina rides their dominant defense and newly balanced offense to a victory.
Max: South Carolina 27, Clemson 17
The Tigers struggle to get anything going on the Gamecocks’ defense and South Carolina concludes its regular season with its sixth-straight victory.
Michigan Wolverines at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12 PM ET on FOX)
Playoff implications: Ohio State is already in, but it needs to beat Michigan to secure a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game
Ohio State has essentially already clinched a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes sport a 10-1 record with two victories over likely playoff teams in Penn State and Indiana while their only loss was on the road to top-ranked Oregon, a game that was decided by just one point.
This game is still critical though for determining what seed Ohio State obtains. If it wins, it secures a trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game in a rematch with Oregon. If the Buckeyes win that, they’ll most likely be the No. 1 team entering the College Football Playoff. Even with a second loss to the Ducks, Ohio State would likely still be the No. 5 seed, which could mean it’d need to just beat the Big 12 champion and Boise State to reach the final four.
Losing to the Wolverines doesn’t just mean the Buckeyes will have lost four straight to archrival Michigan since the early 1990s, it’ll also likely mean Ohio State concedes the spot in the Big Ten title game to either Penn State or Indiana and the Buckeyes would drop down in the playoff seeding to a less advantageous position.
Matchup to watch when Michigan has the ball (Dalton): Michigan’s rushing attack vs. Ohio State’s run defense
Among Power Four teams, only Iowa has thrown for fewer yards per game this year than Michigan. The Wolverines rank outside the top 80 in passing grade, pass-blocking grade and receiving grade. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that they are going to deviate from their usual ground-and-pound strategy.
In Michigan’s six wins this season, the Wolverines have averaged 212 rushing yards. In their five losses, they have averaged 122. If they can slow the pace down and allow their defense to create turnovers, they stand a chance to beat anybody.
They face a tall order in Ohio State, which currently owns the fifth-best run defense grade in the nation. The Buckeyes also rank sixth in the nation allowing just 3.9 yards per carry while also allowing less than one yard per carry before contact.
Five of the Buckeyes’ starters currently own a run-defense grade above 80.0. Safety Lathan Ransom ranks fourth among players at his position. Linebacker Cody Simon ranks inside the top 15 at his.
The biggest challenge, though, comes at the first level, where JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer and Tyleik Williams are all outstanding players against the run. Together, they form a defensive line that trails only eight other teams in run defense grade.
Michigan’s offensive line has been more workmanlike than dominant, especially in Big Ten play. As a unit, it ranks 78th in the FBS in run-blocking grade this season and just 92nd since Week 5. The Wolverines have won the last three meetings by being the more physical team. They’ll need to do it again in order to extend that streak.
Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Max): Ohio State’s offensive line against Michigan’s defensive line
A 6-5 record for Michigan should be seen as a failure considering the Wolverines are coming off a national championship and three-straight Big Ten titles. Even so, there’s one reason this season hasn’t been a complete dumpster fire: their defensive line.
Where Michigan ranks in each grading category
| Category | PFF Grade (FBS Rank) |
| Pass Rush | 90.7 (1st) |
| Run Defense | 93.6 (3rd) |
| Passing | 55.1 (122nd) |
| Rushing | 81.2 (67th) |
| Receiving | 64.3 (105th) |
| Pass Blocking | 66.5 (85th) |
| Run Blocking | 64.4 (56th) |
| Coverage | 76.5 (81st) |
Michigan’s defensive line is the second-highest-graded in the nation (91.6), trailing only Ole Miss. All four of the Wolverines’ defensive line starters are on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board with two first-round prospects (Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant).
Ohio State’s offensive line is easily the biggest question mark with its team after two of its best starters (left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin) went down with season-ending injuries. Since Week 7 when Simmons got hurt, the Buckeyes’ 60.7 offensive line grade is just 104th in the nation.
If Michigan is going to keep this game close at all, it’ll be because its elite defensive line wreaks havoc on a beat-up Ohio State front five.
Predictions
Dalton: Ohio State 35, Michigan 13
With all due respect to the defending national champions, including their 50-point performance last week, I’m not sure how the Wolverines are going to score against an Ohio State squad allowing less than nine points per game aside from their loss to Oregon.
Max: Ohio State 34, Michigan 10
Ohio State’s defense is playing like the best in America right now while Michigan’s offense doesn’t have anything going for them, especially if star tight end Colston Loveland is out. Unless the Wolverines’ defense has a similarly elite performance, the Buckeyes will win their first game over Michigan since the COVID 2020 season in dominant fashion.
No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers at Vanderbilt Commodores (12 PM ET on ESPN)
Playoff implications: Win or go home for Tennessee
The Volunteers’ playoff chances were looking slim entering this past weekend. Tennessee was 8-2 and was behind other two-loss SEC teams like Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M in terms of playoff chances. All three were upset on Saturday, putting the Volunteers firmly into the 12-team field.
If Tennessee can win on the road over a dangerous Vanderbilt team, it’ll pretty much lock up an at-large spot. If the Volunteers are upset, the door is wide open for those on the outside looking in to steal their spot.
Matchup to watch when Tennessee has the ball (Dalton): Nico Iamaleava vs. Vanderbilt’s linebackers
At the center of Nico Iamaleava’s improvement over the past several weeks is his newfound comfort in throwing passes into the intermediate range downfield. Since Week 8, 111 FBS quarterbacks have thrown at least 20 intermediate passes. Iamaleava leads that group with a 93.9 passing grade on those throws.
Iamaleava’s ability to fire slants, seams, and curls into zone coverage windows is crucial to the success of a Tennessee passing game that wants to control linebackers and safeties in order to create deep shots as opposed to forcing them.
Vanderbilt’s safeties are arguably its greatest asset on defense. De’Rickey Wright and CJ Taylor do a nice job of preventing deep shots for the most part. Where the Commodores struggle is at linebacker. Their linebackers rank 109th in coverage grade as a unit this season. They have struggled to defend in their intermediate zones, especially when they don’t get a productive pass rush up front.
Between Tennessee’s productive run game and its passing schemes that naturally put linebackers in conflict, the Volunteers have an opportunity to exploit Vanderbilt’s greatest weakness in coverage. The deep shots may come in due time in this game, but Iamaleava would be well served to continue his hot streak attacking these intermediate windows when they open.
Matchup to watch when Vanderbilt has the ball (Max): Vanderbilt’s offensive line against Tennessee’s defensive line
With Diego Pavia and an improved receiving corps leading the way, Vanderbilt’s passing game has taken a massive leap from last season. The Commodores are 17th in EPA per pass after placing 100th in 2023.
The one area where Vanderbilt still struggles is along its offensive line. The Commodores have the eighth-worst pass-blocking grade in the nation (49.8) and third worst in the Power Four. Vanderbilt allows a pressure 40.6% of its dropbacks, the seventh-highest rate in college football. Pavia has just a 56.1 passing grade under pressure as well compared to a 90.6 mark when kept clean. That offensive line is a major reason why the Commodores are just 113th in rushing yards per attempt as well (4.3).
That could be a major issue against Tennessee’s defensive front, which has been the biggest reason for the Volunteers success this season. Tennessee allows just 3.6 yards per carry, tied for the fewest in the country with Oklahoma. The Volunteers’ 81.9 pass-rushing grade and 37.4% pressure rate are each top-20 marks in the FBS as well. Edge defender James Pearce Jr. is a projected top-15 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft while defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott is a top-50 prospect on PFF’s big board.
Predictions
Dalton: Tennessee 27, Vanderbilt 17
Tennessee’s terrific defensive line against Vanderbilt’s wilting offensive line is a serious mismatch. If the two quarterbacks continue to play the way they have over the past month, this should be a clean win for the Volunteers.
Max: Tennessee 31, Vanderbilt 17
Tennessee’s defensive front dominates Vanderbilt while Nico Iamaleava and Dylan Sampson find success against a below-average Commodore defense. The Volunteers win the game and clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff.
No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans (3:30 PM ET on CBS)
Playoff implications: Notre Dame hosts a game if it wins, possibly eliminated with a loss
Since the Fighting Irish don’t play in a conference, they’re forced to fight for one of the seven at-large spots in the College Football Playoff. It also means Notre Dame won’t have a conference title game to further pad its resume, making Saturday’s game against USC the final game for the Fighting Irish to impress the playoff committee.
It’s likely that a 10-2 Notre Dame would still make the 12-team field, but it’s not guaranteed. The Fighting Irish’s loss to Northern Illinois is worse than any other playoff contender but they do have two nice wins in No. 20 Texas A&M and Army to make up for it. Beating USC would guarantee a home game for Notre Dame in the first round, while a loss would push the Fighting Irish to the brink of being eliminated altogether.
Matchup to watch when USC has the ball (Dalton): Will Jayden Maiava avoid big mistakes?
USC’s gameplan is likely to include a heavy dose of Woody Marks in the run game as well as its high volume of screens. If they find themselves in obvious passing situations, they are going to need Jayden Maiava, who took over the starting quarterback job from Miller Moss, to protect the football.
As the starter at UNLV last season, Maiava committed 24 turnover-worthy plays, the fourth-most in the nation, despite barely playing in the team's first two games. His 5.9% turnover-worthy play rate was the highest of any player with at least 250 pass attempts.
Those mistakes don’t show up in his traditional stat line because he ranked second in the nation with 11 interceptions dropped by the defense. He committed three turnover-worthy plays in his first start against Nebraska two weeks ago but avoided trouble last week against UCLA.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame leads the nation in takeaways with 26. The Fighting Irish have intercepted 15 passes this season, including four from Nagurski Award-winning safety Xavier Watts. Those plays on the ball are a big reason that the Fighting Irish rank second in the nation in coverage grade.
Maiava’s ball security will be a primary barometer to gauge whether or not the Trojans can stay in this game.
Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball (Max): Can USC contain Notre Dame’s elite rushing attack?
The Fighting Irish’s offense is centered around their fantastic ground game. Only Miami (FL) has a higher rushing grade and averages more EPA per run than Notre Dame among Power Four schools and the Fighting Irish are fifth in that same group with a 75.8 run-blocking grade. Notre Dame is second in the Power Four in yards per carry (6.3) and three different players have tallied at least 500 rushing yards this year: running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price alongside quarterback Riley Leonard.
Meanwhile, USC’s just 89th in the country in run-defense grade (76.9) this season. The Trojans have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards just twice this season, against Utah State and Maryland. USC’s missing some key players in its front seven currently with edge defender Anthony Lucas done for the season with a lower-body injury while defensive tackle Bear Alexander and linebacker Eric Gentry both opted out of the remainder of the season. The Trojans have not faced a rushing attack as potent as Notre Dame’s either, so stopping the run should be the point of emphasis for USC this week.
Predictions
Dalton: Notre Dame 28, USC 19
Notre Dame’s defense should be fine if it contains Woody Marks in the run game and makes open-field tackles on the outside. If the Fighting Irish force Maiava into making mistakes, they could run away with this win.
Max: Notre Dame 31, USC 20
The Fighting Irish’s dominant run game leads them to victory while Notre Dame’s stingy defense holds Lincoln Riley’s Trojans in check. The Fighting Irish put the finishing touches on their playoff resume with an 11-1 record and will host a first-round playoff game.
No. 6 Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Syracuse Orange (3:30 PM ET on ESPN)
Playoff implications: Win or potentially go home for Miami
Saturday is pretty simple for the Hurricanes. With a win over Syracuse, Miami clinches a spot in the ACC Championship Game next week against SMU. If the Hurricanes win there, they’ll receive a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. Even if they lose to SMU, it’s hard to envision an 11-2 Miami team being left out completely.
If Miami loses to the Orange this week, Clemson will head to the ACC title game in its place. Then, the 10-2 Hurricanes would be fighting for an at-large spot, potentially against a 9-3 SEC team like Alabama. It’s no guarantee that Miami would win that argument, making this game essentially a must-win to keep its season going.
Matchup to watch when Miami (FL) has the ball (Dalton): Cam Ward and Xavier Restrepo vs. Syracuse’s coverage unit
Multiple factors should work to Miami’s advantage in the passing game.
First, Syracuse blitzes quarterbacks at the 12th-lowest rate in the country. Cam Ward’s 90.7 passing grade when he isn’t blitzed, and he leads the Power Four in big-time throws in such situations. Ward is also dangerous when afforded time in the pocket. On pass plays that last longer than 2.5 seconds, Ward’s 91.3 overall grade is the third-best in the nation. Syracuse has struggled to defend that late in the play, ranking 116th in the country in coverage grade.
Second, the Orange have struggled to defend in the slot this season, which poses a matchup nightmare against Xavier Restrepo. He leads the Power 4 with 894 slot receiving yards and his 85.1 slot receiving grade ranks seventh among that same group. Meanwhile, Syracuse ranks 94th in slot coverage grade this season and has allowed 22 explosive receptions to slot receivers this year.
Lastly, Syracuse runs a top-15 rate of single-high coverages this season. That should work in Restrepo's favor, as he ranks third in the Power Four in receiving grade and yards against single-high defenses this season.
Matchup to watch when Syracuse has the ball (Max): Can Syracuse’s offensive line hold up long enough to give Kyle McCord and its playmakers a chance?
Syracuse has had a lot of success with its aerial attack this season. The Orange are 18th in EPA per pass, tied for ninth in receiving grade and quarterback Kyle McCord leads the FBS with 3,924 passing yards while pacing the Power Four with 27 big-time throws.
The one area where Syracuse has had some issues is with its offensive line, placing 50th in pass-blocking grade this year (73.6). The Orange are 25th in pressure rate allowed (25.2%), but a lot of that has to do with McCord getting rid of the football at the ninth-fastest rate in the FBS (2.41 seconds).
He’ll likely need to continue getting rid of the ball quickly against Miami. The Hurricanes’ defensive line is fourth in the FBS in grade as a unit (87.8), trailing only Ole Miss and Michigan in the Power Four. Miami has generated a pressure on 40.6% of opposing dropbacks, the fifth-highest-rate in America.
If Syracuse’s offensive line holds up against this elite front, there is an opportunity for McCord and his talented stable of weapons to make some big plays down the field. Since Week 4, the Hurricanes are just 87th in coverage grade.
Predictions
This game has all the makings of a shootout, but Miami’s advantages through the air and on the defensive line make the difference as it extends it season for another week.
McCord does his best to keep the Orange in this game, but he can’t outduel a likely Heisman finalist in Cam Ward. The Hurricanes punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game and likely to the College Football Playoff with a win over Syracuse.
Auburn Tigers at No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide (3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Playoff implications: Alabama’s not dead yet
Many considered the Crimson Tide’s playoff hopes to be finished after they suffered their third loss of the season to Oklahoma on Saturday. In reality, Alabama is still alive in the playoff race, it just needs a little bit of help.
If any of the current at-large teams slip up this week, that opens the door for the Crimson Tide to sneak back into the field. First, they must beat archrival Auburn in the Iron Bowl, a school that just took down then-No. 15 Texas A&M on Saturday.
Matchup to watch when Auburn has the ball (Dalton): Will Jarquez Hunter continue to carry the Tigers’ offense?
Auburn found some success in the passing game last week against Texas A&M, which got them off to a good start in that game. However, the engine of their offense is running back Jarquez Hunter, who has been running wild of late.
Over the Tigers’ past four games, Hunter has rushed for 560 yards and earned an 86.7 rushing grade. Both of those figures rank third in the Power Four in that span. His 21 explosive runs rank second behind UCF’s RJ Harvey in that same group.
Hunter will surely be the focus for an Alabama defense that just allowed a season-high 255 rushing yards in its loss to Oklahoma. Despite winning the past two meetings versus the Tigers, Alabama has allowed 611 rushing yards over their past two games against them.
The Crimson Tide will be further compromised without star linebacker Deontae Lawson, who suffered a season-ending injury last week. Lawson’s 83.7 run defense grade is the third-best on the team and 16th-best among Power Four linebackers.
Alabama’s run defense has been more inconsistent this season than the surface-level numbers may imply. The Crimson Tide will need to rebound from last week’s loss to stop a hot Auburn rushing attack.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Max): Can Auburn force Jalen Milroe to win as a dropback passer?
Alabama had its worst offensive performance in over 20 years against Oklahoma this past weekend. The Crimson Tide scored just three points on the Sooners, tied for their fewest since 2000.
Oklahoma completely took away Alabama’s rushing attack in that game, allowing the Crimson Tide to rush for just 75 yards and 2.6 yards per attempt. Each of those figures are the lowest for Alabama all season while the latter is its worst over the last two years. The Sooners held the usually dynamic Jalen Milroe to just 12 rushing yards on 14 attempts, forcing Alabama and Milroe to beat them in pure dropback situations.
Not only could the Crimson Tide not do that, they had their worst EPA per pass performance of the PFF College era (-0.562). Taking away Milroe’s legs has been the recipe for opposing defensive success all year. It’s no coincidence that his three lowest rushing totals of the season coincided with Alabama’s three losses.
Jalen Milroe’s fewest rushing yards this season
| Game | Rushing yards | Result |
| Oklahoma | 12 | Lost 24-3 |
| Vanderbilt | 20 | Lost 40-35 |
| Tennesssee | 34 | Lost 24-17 |
Auburn’s run defense has been the team’s biggest strength all year, placing fifth in yards per attempt allowed (3.9) and 10th in run-defense grade (92.0). The Tigers have had some issues with mobile quarterbacks before though, allowing three opposing signal-callers to run for 75-plus yards on them (Taylen Green, Marcel Reed and Michael Hawkins Jr.). If they shore that up against Miroe, the Tigers could pull off the upset and go bowing.
Predictions
Alabama won this game last year on a hail mary despite Auburn completing only five passes. Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell dominated the game, but they are both now in the NFL. The Tigers will make Milroe beat them with his arm. If he can’t do it consistently, they could finish the job this time.
Milroe and Alabama’s offense have a nice bounceback performance against Auburn while the Tigers struggle to get much going against the Crimson Tide’s strong defense.
No. 16 Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats (3:30 PM ET on FOX)
Playoff implications: Arizona State most likely just needs to win to make the Big 12 Championship Game
After finishing 3-9 in each of the last two seasons, nobody considered the Sun Devils as a serious Big 12 contender in their first year as a member of the conference. With a 9-2 record and two-straight wins over ranked opponents in Kansas State and BYU, that’s precisely what Arizona State has become.
The Sun Devils don’t completely control their own destiny in the conference, but it’s close enough. The only scenario where Arizona State won’t make the Big 12 Championship Game even with a win on Saturday is if Colorado beats Oklahoma State, Iowa State beats Kansas State, Houston beats BYU, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU. Since the odds of that exact combination occurring are incredibly low (1% chance according to PFF’s betting tools), it’s safe to assume that the Sun Devils will play for the Big 12 title and a playoff spot if they take care of business on the road against rival Arizona.
Matchup to watch when Arizona has the ball (Dalton): Will the Sun Devils exact revenge on Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan?
Last season, Noah Fifita used this matchup to rack up a career-high 527 passing yards and five touchdowns – 266 of those yards and a touchdown went in Tetairoa McMillan's direction, as the pair tore up the Sun Devils’ coverage in every way imaginable.
Much has changed for the Wildcats this season, but Fifita and McMillan remain the primary threats to Arizona State’s Big 12 title contention. The difference this season is that the Sun Devils have made massive improvements in coverage. Last year, Arizona State ranked 117th in the FBS. So far this year, they rank 44th and have improved as the season has progressed.
Substantially better play at safety has been a catalyst for the Sun Devils' success. Xavion Alford, who hadn’t played in a game since 2021, currently owns an 88.2 coverage grade while New Mexico State transfer Myles Rowser has also been a solid addition. Arizona State safeties earned the second-lowest coverage grade in the nation last season. The Sun Devils place inside the top 20 this year.
As a unit, they’ve done a far better job this season at preventing shots downfield, which will be crucial in this matchup. Fifita completed 11 of his 18 passes thrown beyond 10 air yards in this game last season, racking up 326 yards and three big-time throws in the process.
If the Sun Devils continue to play as well as they have in coverage, they can exact revenge for last year’s 59-23 bludgeoning.
Matchup to watch when Arizona State has the ball (Max): Can Arizona slow down Cam Skattebo?
Cam Skattebo has been a workhorse for Arizona State’s offense this season. Among FBS running backs, he’s second in first down/touchdown carries (77), second in receiving yards (460), fourth in forced missed tackles on runs (72) and seventh in yards after contact (840). He’s quite simply one of the best all-around tailbacks in college football and one who refuses to go down easily.
That could present a lot of problems for Arizona, whose 70.4 run-defense grade is just 110th in the nation. The Wildcats have allowed 1,167 yards after contact this year (80th in the FBS). Arizona hasn’t allowed a running back to tally 50-plus receiving yards yet this year, but it also hasn’t faced a running back quite as dangerous in that aspect as Skattebo.
Slowing down No. 4 is priority No. 1 for the Wildcats.
Predictions
Dalton: Arizona State 34, Arizona 24
The Wildcats have played a bit better on offense lately, but they are not as complete a team as Arizona State. I expect another big day for Cam Skattebo and Jordyn Tyson as the Sun Devils continue their magical ride.
Max: Arizona State 34, Arizona 21
Cam Skattebo should find a lot of success against a vulnerable Arizona run defense. The Sun Devils win their fifth straight and all but lock up a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
No. 3 Texas Longhorns at No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Playoff implications: Winner goes to the SEC Championship Game, Texas A&M is out with a loss
With all of the upsets this past Saturday, it’s pretty safe to assume that Texas (10-1) won’t miss the playoff even with a loss to Texas A&M on Saturday. However, a loss on Saturday would mean that the Longhorns won’t play for the SEC Championship against Georgia, the only school that beat them so far. Because of that, Texas wouldn’t receive a first-round bye in the playoff and might not even host a first-round game, especially considering its best win is over Florida who’s 6-5 on the season.
After losing to Auburn in quadruple overtime, Texas A&M has no room for error with an 8-3 record. Not only do the Aggies need to beat Texas to make the SEC title game and keep their season alive, they also likely must beat Georgia to guarantee themselves a spot in the playoff.
Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Dalton): Do the Aggies have enough in the backfield left to ride their running game?
The loss of star running back Le’Veon Moss has unsurprisingly hurt the Aggies’ rushing attack. Two of the team’s five lowest rushing totals have come in their two recent losses to South Carolina and Auburn.
Moss’ replacement Amari Daniels has amassed 248 yards on 44 carries over the past three games, but more than half of that yardage has been generated on two carries, one of which was a 71-yard touchdown versus New Mexico State. The Aggies have averaged just 3.5 yards per designed carry in their two recent losses.
Daniels, along with quarterback Marcel Reed, will be in the spotlight as they square off with Texas’ top-graded defense. That ranking, though, is a bit skewed toward the Longhorns’ production when defending the pass. They rank 34th in run defense grade this season, a good placement but not quite where they were last year with T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II in tow.
Texas A&M will want to avoid obvious passing situations as much as possible so as to not put pressure on the young Reed to carry them as he tried to last week.
Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball (Max): Texas’ offensive line against Texas A&M’s defensive line
This is the most must-see matchup in the most must-see game of Week 14.
While the play of quarterback Quinn Ewers has been up and down, he has had the pleasure of having one of the best offensive lines in college football blocking for him. The Longhorns’ 94.2 pass-blocking grade is the best in America by over four points while their 70.0 run-blocking grade is 11th in the Power Four. The offensive line’s 86.0 grade is second to only Iowa among Power Four units. Ewers has just a 43.9 passing grade under pressure, making the play of Texas’ front five critical to its offensive success.
They should have their hands full against the Aggies’ defensive front. Texas A&M has generated 195 pressures this season, a top-20 mark in the FBS. The Aggies are also 13th in the nation with a 91.5 team run-defense grade.
In particular, Texas’ tackle duo of Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cameron Williams against Texas A&M’s edge duo of Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart will be ian ncredible tape study, especially for draft purposes. In fact, all four of those players currently rank as first-round prospects in PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board.
Predictions
Dalton: Texas 27, Texas A&M 21
Kyle Field will be rocking, but the Longhorns’ defense will get the job done as long as Quinn Ewers avoids any backbreaking mistakes.
Texas A&M’s passing game struggles to get anything going against Texas’ suffocating defense while the Longhorns offensive line holds up just enough for Ewers to find his talented stable of weapons against what’s been a below-average secondary. Texas wins and sets up a rematch with Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
No. 24 Kansas State Wildcats at No. 18 Iowa State Cyclones (7:30 PM ET on FOX)
Playoff implications: Iowa State most likely just needs to win to make the Big 12 Championship Game
With both BYU and Colorado losing this past Saturday, Iowa State is in a great position to play in its second Big 12 title game in program history and consequently for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The only scenario where the Cyclones don’t make the Big 12 Championship Game even with a win is if Colorado wins, Arizona State wins, BYU loses and West Virginia loses. Iowa State must first beat Kansas State though, a top-25 team in the recent PFF ranking.
Matchup to watch when Iowa State has the ball (Dalton): Can Kansas State defend the middle of the field?
One of the themes all season for Iowa State’s offense has been their production over the middle of the field. When targeting the middle-third of the field, they’ve been the nation’s fourth-highest graded offense while also ranking inside the top 12 in successful play rate and explosive play rate.
Rocco Becht has been one of the nation’s best passers when targeting this area of the field. His 91.0 passing grade in those scenarios is the 10th-best in the FBS. Of course, it helps that he has two elite options who have produced all season in this area as well.
Jaylin Noel ranks second among Power Four wide receivers, behind Tetairoa McMillan, with a 91.6 receiving grade over the middle third of the field. He also has gained the third-most yards on those targets among that same group. Jayden Higgins isn’t far behind, ranking ninth in receiving grade and 25th in yards.
When opposing defenses have limited these opportunities, the Cyclones have found themselves in close games. Kansas State‘s problem is that defending this area of the field is arguably the primary weakness of their defense.
The Wildcats sit in 101st place in coverage grade when defending the middle third of the field. They also rank outside the top 100 in yards allowed per play on such passes. Effective middle-of-the-field throwers like Shedeur Sanders, Jake Retzlaff, and Sam Leavitt have caused them problems this season.
Becht and the Cyclones fit right in with that group as a unit that could give the Wildcats’ secondary a serious challenge.
Matchup to watch when Kansas State has the ball (Max): Kansas State’s rushing attack against Iowa State’s struggling run defense
Iowa State’s 3-3-5 defensive scheme is inherently designed to limit the opposition’s ability to spread the field in the passing game with three linebackers and five defensive backs on the field. On the flip side, it also leaves the Cyclones shorthanded in the run game with only three defensive linemen on the field. It also doesn’t help that their star run defender, linebacker Caleb Bacon, has played just five snaps this year due to a lower-leg injury. Iowa State is just 120th in run-defense grade this season and 114th in yards per attempt allowed (5.6).
This is about as bad of a matchup as there can be for the Cyclones’ defense, as Kansas State’s offense is centered around its rushing attack. The Wildcats average 6.3 yards per carry this season, the sixth most in America. DJ Giddens is tied for eighth among FBS running backs with 817 yards after contact while Avery Johnson is third among Power Four quarterbacks with 25 runs of 10-plus yards.
Iowa State did an excellent job last week of shutting down Utah’s ground game in its 31-28 victory with just 109 rushing yards allowed. If the Cyclones can do the same this week, Johnson could have a lot of issues in obvious passing situations against this secondary (10th in coverage grade).
Predictions
Dalton: Kansas State 30, Iowa State 27
Iowa State won this game by a touchdown last year due to playing the most efficient level of offense imaginable. If the Cyclones' run defense is up to the challenge, they can win, but I’ll lean toward Kansas State’s ability to control possession.
Max: Kansas State 35, Iowa State 34
This is a bad matchup for both defenses. With Rocco Becht playing inconsistent football all season, I have more faith in Kansas State’s ground-game to be the more dominant unit than Iowa State’s aerial attack. The Wildcats win in a nail-biter and the BYU/Colorado faithful rejoice.
Houston Cougars at No. 19 BYU Cougars (10:15 PM ET on ESPN)
Playoff implications: BYU needs to win and receive some help to get to the Big 12 Championship Game
The Cougars started the season 9-0 and looked like they were set to lock up a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. BYU then had a nightmarish last two weeks though, losing to both Kansas and Arizona State.
The Cougars are still alive in the Big 12 title race and thus the College Football Playoff race, but they no longer control their own destiny. In order to play in the Big 12 Championship Game next week, BYU needs to beat Houston and either Arizona State or Iowa State to lose.
Matchup to watch when Houston has the ball (Dalton): Zeon Chriss vs. BYU’s run defense
Houston has struggled to throw the football no matter who its quarterback has been this season. Only two Power Four teams possess a lower passing grade than the Cougars. It stands to reason that they win games when they run the ball effectively.
Since inserting former Louisiana quarterback Zeon Chriss as the starting quarterback, Houston’s record is 3-3. Chriss has also led the team with 70 carries, 380 rushing yards, and 18 missed tackles forced in that span.
The Cougars average nearly 220 rushing yards in their four wins and just over 120 in their seven losses. With Chriss installed as their quarterback, they’ve found success between the tackles averaging 5.9 yards per carry on such runs. That places them inside the top 30 in the FBS since Week 6.
BYU has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards between the tackles in the FBS this season. Improvement from players such as linebacker Harrison Taggart and edge defender Logan Lutui have allowed them to field a more stout unit after allowing nearly 6.0 yards per carry between the tackles last season.
If that improvement sticks for one more game, Houston could quickly run out of offensive options.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Max): Can BYU finish drives?
The Cougars have had some major issues once they get inside the 20-yard line. In BYU’s 17-13 loss to Kansas, the Cougars had four trips to the red zone and only six points to show for it. Simply kicking four field goals would’ve resulted in a victory for the Cougars. BYU’s 65.1 offensive grade in the red zone is just 92nd in the nation while its 59% touchdown percentage is 87th.
There’s an opportunity to get right this week against Houston, whose 53.9 red-zone defensive grade is the worst in college football. The Cougars have allowed points on 86% of red-zone drives (109th) and a touchdown on 65.5% of them (92nd).
BYU’s inability to finish drives has been the biggest issue with its offense all year, but Houston’s defense has been even worse at standing tall when it matters most.
Predictions
BYU has lost two heartbreakers in a row, and their struggles can be tied heavily to red zone inefficiencies. Houston is the lowest-graded red zone defense in the nation. BYU bounces back with its season on the line.
BYU bounces back from back-to-back losses with a commanding victory over Houston. If either Arizona State or Iowa State loses, the Cougars’ Big 12 championship dreams and playoff aspirations remain alive.
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