• Tennessee–Oklahoma: Two top-15 teams meet in Oklahoma’s first conference game as an SEC team.
• Utah–Oklahoma State: The winner of this top-15 matchup will become the favorite in a wide-open Big 12 conference.
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Estimated Reading Time: 20 minutes
Week 3 was pretty tame by college football’s standards. Only two ranked teams lost, and they came to other higher-ranked teams. Week 4 promises to be far more enticing with four games between top-25 teams, the most of any slate so far this season.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for six of the biggest games this weekend.
No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini at No. 22 Nebraska Cornhuskers (Friday, 8 PM EST on FOX)
Storyline to know: First ranked game between these two programs in nearly 40 years
Friday’s meeting between Illinois and Nebraska is the 22nd all-time between the two programs. It’s also the second instance where both the Fighting Illini and Cornhuskers entered the game inside the top 25 — the first since 1985.
Illinois is ranked for the first time in two years and has its first 3-0 start since the 2011 season. Nebraska is in the top 25 for the first time in five years with its first 3-0 start since 2016. The winner of this game continues its ascension while the loser gets a bucket of ice water poured onto its hot start.
Matchup to watch when Illinois has the ball (Dalton): Can Illinois’ new offensive tackles sustain their early season success?
Any preseason optimism for the Fighting Illini this year had to be paired with expectations of improvement for an offensive line that struggled mightily last season. Simply put, it was a subpar group in 2023 and their entire offense felt the effects.
Illinois Offensive line 2023
| Overall Grade | T-82nd |
| Run Blocking Grade | T-45th |
| Pass Blocking Grade | T-117th |
| Sacks Allowed | T-121st |
While it was a decent run-blocking unit, the Illinois offensive line was dysfunctional in pass protection last season, which disrupted the flow of their entire offense and eventually caused an injury to quarterback Luke Altmyer.
The same interior group remains this season, but both starting offensive tackles graduated, leaving questions about what the solution would be. The Fighting Illini have found that solution in two transfers. They added left tackle J.C. Davis, who ranked third in overall grade among offensive tackles last season, from New Mexico. They also acquired right tackle Melvin Priestly from Grambling State, and the results have been stunning this year.
Davis has been a consistent presence so far, posting a 71.4 overall grade and allowing just two pressures through three games. Priestly has been a revelation as he currently ranks sixth in the nation in overall grade and fifth in run blocking grade. These two players have set the tone for the rest of the offense to succeed.
Luke Altmyer is a good quarterback with huge splits between his clean and pressured performance. The better his protection is, the more he will succeed. Illinois is currently averaging five yards per carry in the run game. These new offensive tackles have allowed them to balance their offense. They’ll need that production and balance as they square off with Ty Robinson and Nebraska’s stout defensive front.
Matchup to watch when Nebraska has the ball (Max): Dylan Raiola against his toughest test yet
Dylan Raiola has impressed through the first three games of his collegiate career. The former five-star recruit’s 76.4 passing grade leads all true freshmen in the country. While he’s capable of making any throw in the playbook, it’s his maturity that has stood out the most so far. Raiola’s 1.1% turnover-worthy play rate this year is second among Big Ten quarterbacks to only Dillon Gabriel.
He’ll now face a defense that has forced plenty of mistakes from opposing signal-callers. Quarterbacks against Illinois have just a 46.5 passing grade this season with one big-time throw and nine turnover-worthy plays. Kansas’ Jalon Daniels, who entered the season as a top-five quarterback on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board, committed four turnover-worthy plays against the Illini on his way to a 44.9 passing grade. Each of those marks was the worst he’s had since the 2020 season when he was a true freshman. Illinois runs Cover 1 at the second-highest rate in the Power Four (55.5%), meaning the Fighting Illini will be daring Raiola and his receivers to beat them one-on-one. So far this season, Raiola has just a 47.2 passing grade against man coverage.
Predictions
Illinois has the defense to make Raiola uncomfortable in this game, but the Fighting Illini won’t get enough from its offense to ultimately pull off the upset.
Dalton: Nebraska 19, Illinois 16
This game features two teams who are incredibly similar. It could very well come down to the final seconds. Dylan Raiola’s poise makes the difference in a tight game.
No. 11 USC Trojans at No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (3:30 PM EST on CBS)
Storyline to know: Two programs that lost first-round quarterbacks and are handling it very differently
Both USC (Caleb Williams) and Michigan (J.J. McCarthy) saw their quarterbacks get selected within the first 10 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft.
For Lincoln Riley and the Trojans, it’s business as usual. Since Riley became a head coach in 2017, every one of his five quarterbacks has gone on to be drafted into the NFL. Three of them were Heisman winners (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Williams) while four are currently starting in the league (Mayfield, Murray, Williams and Jalen Hurts). Williams’ replacement, Miller Moss, is currently fourth among FBS signal-callers with a 90.8 PFF grade.
Meanwhile, Michigan is having far more difficulty replacing its star quarterback. Davis Warren has already thrown six interceptions, tied for the most in the Power Four. He was benched this past weekend following a 58.3 passing grade against Arkansas State. His replacement, Alex Orji, only has seven career passing attempts and will make his first career start against the Trojans this weekend.
Matchup to watch when Michigan has the ball (Dalton): Michigan’s run game vs. USC’s defensive front
Through three games, Michigan has not been able to find its footing in the passing game. The Wolverines' rushing attack looked better last week, as it totaled 309 yards versus Arkansas State. Now, that Michigan is making the switch to Alex Orji as its starting quarterback, the Wolverines will likely to lean into the run game even more.
The Trojans’ defensive front will face its biggest test yet under defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. The Trojans have shown improvement so far this season. Last year, USC ranked 60th in the Power Five in EPA allowed per designed rush. This year, the Trojans are up to 35th. They posted a solid 77.6 run-defense grade a few weeks ago against LSU and its excellent offensive line.
USC isn’t necessarily getting an outstanding individual performance from its front seven, but the Trojans have a deep group of players capable of producing at an adequate level. Expect them to use a heavier dosage of the five-man front that Lynn was successful with during his time at UCLA.
Matchup to watch when USC has the ball (Max): Can Michigan cover USC’s receivers well enough for the defensive line to get home?
Michigan entered the season with my No. 2 defensive line in college football and honestly had a strong case to be at the top. The Wolverines’ pair of defensive tackles, Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, are currently top-15 prospects on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board while Graham is No. 1 overall.
The best way to neutralize a terrific defensive line is to never let them even have a chance at getting after the quarterback. Miller Moss’ 2.21-second average time to throw is currently the third-fastest in America, a stark contrast to the style of play USC was used to under Williams. Instead of trying to make magic happen outside of structure as his predecessor did, Moss is running Riley’s offense with precise timing and accuracy. Michigan is going to need its defensive backs to cover USC’s receivers long enough to allow Graham, Grant and the Wolverines’ other pass-rushers to get home. While cornerback Will Johnson is a superstar, Michigan is still just 79th in the country with a 73.4 coverage grade.
Predictions
Michigan’s uncertainty under center is too much to overcome offensively while Moss can quickly and accurately deliver to USC’s deep stable of weapons.
Steve Sarkisian laid the foundation for beating Michigan’s defense — play with tempo and avoid Will Johnson. The Trojans find enough points to beat a one-dimensional Michigan squad.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 19 Louisville Cardinals (3:30 PM EST on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: Louisville’s first true test
We have always been high on the Cardinals, dating back to the preseason. Louisville was the No. 17 team in our preseason top-25 even though it started the year unranked in the AP poll. The Cardinals are 14th in our latest ranking, five spots ahead of where they are for the Associated Press.
While Louisville has looked impressive in its first two games, even we will admit it’s hard to take any victory laps yet due to its level of competition. The Cardinals beat Austin Peay (an FCS school) and Jacksonville State, who’s currently 0-3 after additional losses to Coastal Carolina and Eastern Michigan. Not only is Georgia Tech the first Power Four school that Louisville is facing, the Yellow Jackets also sport a 3-1 record and were ranked just a couple weeks ago.
Matchup to watch when Louisville has the ball (Dalton): Tyler Shough’s deep ball versus Georgia Tech’s secondary
Despite heavy turnover that saw Louisville lose its starting quarterback, top two running backs and top receiver, the formula remains the same — run the ball, use a lot of play action and take deep shots downfield. Through two games, albeit against lesser competition, that plan has worked.
Louisville currently leads the nation with a 92.4 rushing grade. The good news for Georgia Tech is that it has improved dramatically in run defense, earning a top-20 grade in that facet so far this season. The other two parts of the equation could be an issue for the Yellow Jackets.
Since the start of last season, Georgia Tech ranks 96th in the nation in coverage grade against deep passes. The Yellow Jackets also rank 73rd in coverage grade against play-action in that same time frame.
Tyler Shough is currently holding the fourth-highest play action rate and the 15th-best deep passing grade in the FBS. This week will pose a bigger challenge than the Cardinals’ first two games, but Georgia Tech is vulnerable enough in the secondary, specifically at safety, for Shough to have success.
Matchup to watch when Georgia Tech has the ball (Max): How does Louisville handle Haynes King this year?
The bread-and-butter of the Yellow Jackets’ offense is its option run game with running back Jamal Haynes and quarterback Haynes King. Georgia Tech runs the ball on 52% of its plays this season while averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. While the threat of King’s mobility and a dynamic running back like Haynes would theoretically force a defense to commit more defenders in the box, King still must be respected as a passer as he currently owns an 84.7 passing grade.
Louisville had some difficulty defending Georgia Tech last year in a 39-34 victory. The Yellow Jackets had 17 plays in that game that went for at least 10 yards, tied for the most Louisville allowed in a game all of last season. Georgia Tech utilized every blade of grass it could in the loss, as King finished with a combined 366 yards of total offense. The Cardinals are currently fourth in the nation with a 91.8 run-defense grade but has yet to face an offense as dynamic as the Yellow Jackets have.
Predictions
Max: Louisville 31, Georgia Tech 27
Haynes King and Georgia Tech give Louisville all it can handle, but the Cardinals are able to survive their first trial of the season.
Dalton: Louisville 34, Georgia Tech 31
Ashton Gillotte and the Cardinals’ defense make just enough plays in crunch time to escape with a win.
No. 12 Utah Utes at No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys (4 PM EST on FOX)
Storyline to know: The winner becomes the new favorite in the Big 12
Utah and Oklahoma State are two of the three Big 12 teams that are currently in the top-15 of the AP poll. Kansas State is sandwiched directly between them. The Utes are the current betting favorite to win the conference at (+250) while the Cowboys aren’t too far behind in third at (+475), according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
The winner of this game will surely be the Big 12’s highest-ranked team and the favorite to win the conference, while the loser will suffer a major setback in what’s the most wide-open Power Four conference.
Matchup to watch when Oklahoma State has the ball (Dalton): How long can Alan Bowman and the receivers carry the Cowboys’ offense?
Star running back Ollie Gordon II has yet to get untracked this season as opponents prepare to slow down Oklahoma State’s running game. In response, quarterback Alan Bowman got off to a very good start and led the Cowboys to three straight wins.
Can they continue that formula against a Utah defense whose coverage is their best attribute?
Bowman, along with receivers De’Zhaun Stribling, Rashod Owens, and Brennan Presley, are experts in the quick passing game. Bowman had the 13th-fastest average time in the FBS last season and currently holds the 8th-fastest this season. Only five passers this season have completed more passes in under 2.5 seconds than Bowman. Bowman has thrown eight of his nine touchdowns in under 2.5 seconds, tied for the most in the FBS.
Utah counters with three talented cornerbacks in Zemaiah Vaughn, Elijah Davis and Smith Snowden. Since the start of last season, Utah owns the 12th-best EPA per pass allowed in the Power Five on throws released under 2.5 seconds. The Utes' ability to succeed using a high rate of single-high coverage allows them to defend short passes as well as stop the run.
If Utah does win the battle in coverage, then Oklahoma State will need to rely on Ollie Gordon II, who is struggling so far this year. He currently is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and his longest run of the year went for 12 yards. The Cowboys could struggle to win this game if their offense continues to be one-dimensional.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Max): Is Cameron Rising healthy enough to take advantage of a vulnerable Oklahoma State defense?
Utah quarterback Cameron Rising missed this past week’s game against Utah State due to an injury to his ring finger on his throwing hand. Wide receiver Dorian Singer said that Rising will return against Oklahoma State, though it’s unknown how much this injury will affect him.
If Rising is at or near 100 percent, Utah could take advantage of what’s been a subpar pass-defense for the Cowboys. They’re currently the sixth-worst Power Four team in coverage grade (60.6) while allowing 7.6 yards per pass (10th worst).
Predictions
Max: Utah 28, Oklahoma State 27
This game comes down to the health of Rising’s right ring finger. If his injury is significantly affecting his passing ability, I like Oklahoma State’s chances. If not, the Utes pull out the victory.
Dalton: Utah 30, Oklahoma State 26
Ollie Gordon II is struggling. Collin Oliver is out. The Cowboys home field advantage won’t be enough to hold off a more well-rounded Utah team, assuming Rising is healthy.
No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (7:30 PM EST on ABC)
Storyline to know: Can Oklahoma show some signs of life offensively against a red-hot Tennessee team?
Oklahoma hasn’t had the best start to its season despite its 3-0 record, specifically on offense. The Sooners currently have the second-lowest offensive grade in the Power Four (61.8), ahead of only UCLA. They’re the Power Four’s worst team in receiving grade and run-blocking grade while being below average in passing grade (48th), rushing grade (55th) and pass-blocking grade (43rd).
Tennessee, meanwhile, has outscored its opponents by 63.7 points per game, including a 41-point victory over then-No. 24 NC State. The Volunteers have only given up 13 points all season and have one of the 10 highest-graded defenses in the country so far. Oklahoma’s first conference game as a member of the SEC will show just how much concern there should be for its offense.
Matchup to watch when Oklahoma has the ball (Dalton): Oklahoma’s offensive line vs. Tennessee’s suddenly deep defensive line
Oklahoma’s offensive line was expected to be a work in progress this season considering it was replacing the entire 2023 unit. Injuries and ineffectiveness have created real concern for the Sooners up front.
Oklahoma’s offensive line is currently the lowest-graded unit in the Power Five. It has been a bit below average in pass protection but owns the third-lowest run-blocking grade in the Power Four. Facing Tulane last week, Oklahoma had just one of their five projected starters playing the position they were expected to play.
Conversely, Tennessee’s defensive line has thrived so far this season despite James Pearce Jr. getting off to a pedestrian start. As a unit, it has posted the eighth-best overall grade in the nation. It suddenly has a deep rotation of players with different skill sets. Omari Thomas and Dominic Bailey have done a nice job rushing the passer. Tyre West and Joshua Josephs have excelled in the run game.
Tennessee has found depth on its defensive line. If Pearce gets going as well, the Vols become even more dangerous. Even if he doesn’t, Oklahoma will have its hands full blocking a deep rotation of productive players.
Matchup to watch when Tennessee has the ball (Max): Can Oklahoma limit the big plays from Nico Iamaleava?
Running back Dylan Sampson has been the star of Tennessee’s offense so far this season. The junior’s 7.9 yards per carry are fifth among all tailbacks in the country. However, he’ll have a tough test on Saturday night since Oklahoma’s defense is outstanding at defending the run. The Sooners are currently second among FBS teams in run-defense grade (92.5) and allow just three yards per attempt.
In all likelihood, the Volunteers will need quarterback Nico Iamaleava to carry the offense in order to pull off the road win. The redshirt freshman has been able to rest on his laurels after an elite performance in Week 1, posting just a 56.0 passing grade in the past two weeks with two big-time throws and the first three turnover-worthy plays of his career. He’ll need to be sharper against an Oklahoma defense that’s surrendered just a 58.4 grade from opposing quarterbacks this season. Those signal-callers have just one big-time throw and five turnover-worthy plays against the Sooners so far.
Predictions
Max: Tennessee 31, Oklahoma 20
Oklahoma’s offense struggles to find its footing once again while Nico Iamaleava makes enough plays for Tennessee to pull off another ranked win.
Dalton: Tennessee 45, Oklahoma 23
Oklahoma is dealing with a ton of injuries and hasn’t looked particularly impressive. There are too many matchups in this game that favor the Volunteers. Tennessee rolls.
No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats at BYU Cougars (10:30 PM EST on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Is BYU a Big 12 contender?
The Cougars have been one of the bigger surprises in college football so far. BYU entered the season with a win total set at just 4.5 and is already 3-0 to start the season with wins over Southern Illinois, SMU and Wyoming.
BYU now has a chance to prove its legitimacy against a Kansas State team that just dominated No. 20 Arizona this past weekend. If the Cougars pull off the upset, they’ll surely enter the top-25 and enter themselves into a wide-open Big 12 race.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Dalton): Will Kansas State bring pressure against Jake Retzlaff?
BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff has certainly improved this season after seeing limited action in 2023. He has an interesting matchup this week against the Wildcats, who rarely put extra pressure on opposing passers. If that trend holds, it should work to Retzlaff’s advantage.
Jake Retzlaff vs. non-blitzes, 2024
| Passing Grade | 90.5 (T-9th) |
| Yards per Attempt | 9.6 (T-20th) |
| Pass TDs | 5 (T-10th) |
| Adot | 12.4 yards (11th) |
When he is given time to operate in the pocket, Retzlaff is willing and able to take vertical shots downfield. His best attribute is his ability to attack down the middle when he is clean.
The interesting part of this matchup is that Kansas State is not a team that traditionally blitzes very much. The Wildcats carried the ninth-lowest blitz rate in the Power Four on pass plays last season and the fourth-lowest this season.
If the Wildcats decide to break that tendency and send more pressure, it will be incumbent upon Retzlaff to make fewer mistakes. So far in his BYU career, Retzlaff has earned just a 36.0 passing grade, making one big-time throw and committing nine turnover-worthy plays in the process. There’s a severe drop-off in his accuracy and decision-making when he feels extra pressure coming his way.
Retzlaff is also the Cougars’ leading rusher, so almost the entirety of their offense is on his shoulders. If he stays poised under pressure, the Cougars will have a chance to pull off a big upset.
Matchup to watch when Kansas State has the ball (Max): Can BYU get Kansas State into obvious passing situations?
Kansas State’s offense is predicated on its three-headed monster in its run game. Kansas State is currently tied for fifth in the country with 7.3 yards per attempt while it’s second in the country with 28% of its runs going for at least 10 yards. Avery Johnson is fourth among Power Four quarterbacks with 200 rushing yards on the season while DJ Giddens is 10th among running backs with 324 yards. Defenses also must account for the electric Dylan Edwards, who has 9 forced missed tackles on just 15 carries so far.
BYU currently has a top-25 run-defense grade in the nation, allowing 4.2 yards per attempt. However, the Cougars have allowed 213 rushing yards from quarterbacks through three games this season, which could be a significant issue against Avery Johnson.
Predictions
Max: Kansas State 31, BYU 17
Avery Johnson’s legs once again lead the Wildcats to victory while BYU comes crashing down to earth with its first loss of the season.
Dalton: Kansas State 35, BYU 20
The Wildcats’ running game is a serious problem for opposing defenses. Retzlaff would have to play a perfect game to pull off an upset. Kansas State wins its first official Big 12 game of the season.
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