A home base for PFF’s 2023 NFL mock drafts, which include analysis of individual draft prospects entering the draft, trade scenarios and NFL team needs.
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TREVOR SIKKEMA (APRIL 26)
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS (VIA CHI): QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA
It’s Bryce in the end, and it should have been Bryce all along.
2. HOUSTON TEXANS: EDGE WILL ANDERSON JR., ALABAMA
I think the Texans want a quarterback, but I think they’re feeling ambitious enough to have their cake (the top defensive player in the draft) at No. 2 and eat it, too (stay aggressive for a quarterback using No. 12 in a potential trade up). Anderson was the far more productive player compared to Tyree Wilson.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: OT PARIS JOHNSON JR., OHIO STATE
Things have been heating up behind the scenes for Arizona to take Johnson as the top offensive tackle in the class at No. 3. They’d love to trade down, but it has been rumored no one is close to the price they want (likely a first next year). If they stay here, my best bet is PJJ, though Illinois' Devon Witherspoon is also in play.
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MIKE RENNER (APRIL 19)
* = Mock trade
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS: QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA
You won’t find too many evaluators who don’t have Young as QB1 in the class. He truly doesn't have any bad tape to point to from his two seasons as Alabama's starter that would give evaluators pause about his size becoming an issue in the NFL. He’s the culture changer that the Panthers need.
2. DETROIT LIONS (VIA HOU): QB C.J. STROUD, OHIO STATE
The Lions saw how “safe” top-10 picks can be with Jeffrey Okudah. This time they aren’t missing out on their possible Justin Herbert. And if the Texans already have their eyes on next year’s quarterback class it may not take much draft capital to move up from the sixth overall pick. Stroud’s addition gives the Lions the flexibility to move on from Jared Goff’s $32 million cap hits in 2024 to go all-in on a Super Bowl window.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: EDGE WILL ANDERSON JR., ALABAMA
The Cardinals get usurped as the trade-up spot in this draft and have to “settle” for a blue-chip edge prospect in Anderson. Valuable positions should be the theme of this Cardinals draft for an utterly depleted roster.
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BRAD SPIELBERGER (APRIL 27)
* = Mock trade
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS (VIA CHI): QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA
Carolina traded up to No. 1 overall with the Chicago Bears to once and for all land its next franchise quarterback a dozen years after taking Cam Newton with the top pick in 2011. Bryce Young can hopefully lead them to a Super Bowl like Newton did back in 2015.
2. HOUSTON TEXANS: EDGE WILL ANDERSON JR., ALABAMA
With rampant speculation in the weeks leading up to the draft about a quarterback or Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson at No. 2, we go with the safe choice here in college football’s top edge rusher of the past several years.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: OT PARIS JOHNSON JR., OHIO STATE
Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is reportedly a fan of the Ohio State tackle, and Arizona uses its first pick to ensure he’s protected upon returning from his torn ACL. Head coach Jonathan Gannon can use later picks to build up a defense in need of major reinforcements and in the meantime perhaps scheme around the lack of talent.
Johnson’s 85.5 run-blocking grade on outside zone runs in 2022 ranked sixth among FBS tackles, and that was at a new position on the other side of the offensive line. If he can get more consistent and continue to develop in both facets, he’s the exact type of tackle Chicago’s new brass covets.
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GORDON McGUINNESS (MARCH 13)
* = Mock trade
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS (VIA CHI): QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: An offensive coordinator will have to do some things to scheme around Young's height, but it's a small price to pay for everything else he brings to the table.
Moving down makes too much sense for the Bears, and if the Panthers want to guarantee a shot at Bryce Young, who produced PFF passing grades above 90.0 in each of the past two seasons, they need to get to No. 1 overall. I suspect, in the end, the pick here will be Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, but if it were up to me, I’d go with Young.
2. HOUSTON TEXANS: QB C.J. STROUD, OHIO STATE
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: As a passer, Stroud is nothing like the other two first-round quarterbacks who came out of Ohio State before him. And that bodes well for his NFL prospects.
Many thought that the Texans would wind up moving up to No. 1, but the Bears were able to land a huge haul by moving down to No. 9 with Carolina. The Texans shouldn’t feel too disheartened though, with Stroud producing 27 and 29 big-time throws in each of the past two seasons.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: ED WILL ANDERSON, ALABAMA
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Elite production and elite tools. That's an easy combination to draft highly.
This could be another trade-down spot with someone looking to move up for a quarterback, but if the Cardinals stay at No. 3, they can land the top edge defender in the class. Anderson racked up 37 sacks, 36 hits and 134 hurries from 1,223 pass-rushing snaps in college.
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STEVE PALAZZOLO
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS (VIA CHI): QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA
Big board rank: 1
Big board analysis: Young is flat-out the best playmaker at the quarterback position in the draft class. He can get you a bucket. Young earned a 92.2 grade in 2021 when he won the Heisman, and he followed it up with a 91.5 in 2022.
2. HOUSTON TEXANS: QB C.J. STROUD, OHIO STATE
Big board rank: 5
Big board analysis: Stroud put a stamp on his college tenure in a big way with the second-highest-graded game of his career against Georgia in the College Football Playoff. He has the accuracy and anticipation to thrive in the NFL.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: ED WILL ANDERSON JR., ALABAMA
Big board rank: 3
Big board analysis: Anderson had as productive a three-year career as we’ve seen from a defensive lineman. He picked up 207 pressures over that span. He’s an explosive and fluid 6-foot-4, 243-pound blue-chip edge.
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SAM MONSON (APRIL 10)
* = Mock trade
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS (VIA CHI): QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON, FLORIDA
I think Bryce Young is the best quarterback prospect in this draft, but if I’m Carolina, I’ve already traded up from No. 9 overall to make this move. I need a huge payoff. I am confident that Young will be a solid NFL quarterback, but will his limitations prevent him from becoming a great one? I don’t know.
Richardson’s elite athleticism and rushing threat give him a very high floor and enough breathing room to improve as a passer — specifically to fix his accuracy. He actually works through progressions and reads defenses well; he just can’t reliably connect with his target. If my coaching staff thinks that’s fixable, Richardson is the biggest potential home run.
2. HOUSTON TEXANS: QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA
This is a jackpot scenario for Houston, with the best prospect in the draft slipping to the pick they wouldn't have owned if they had lost a meaningless late-season game to maintain control of the No. 1 overall selection. Young’s size is scary, but he plays with the best anticipation of any quarterback in this draft and targets the middle of the field more often than much taller players, such as C.J. Stroud.
3. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (VIA ARI): QB WILL LEVIS, KENTUCKY
What happens from this spot onward depends entirely on how you evaluate the remaining top two quarterbacks. I buy into what Will Levis showed in 2021 in an NFL offense with better support around him, and if I’m the Colts, I can’t risk losing him to a team willing to trade to No. 3 and jump me. They flip Arizona another pick to jump one spot and snag their guy, then pray Levis jumps back up in play with a better environment around him.
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CRIS COLLINSWORTH
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS (VIA CHI): QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA
He’s the one quarterback in this class who I think is ready to play from Day 1. The one thing I worry about with him is whether his arm strength is good enough to win late in the year. While I don’t know if he can get the ball downfield enough, I think he’s really good in that 20-40-yard range.
2. HOUSTON TEXANS: QB C.J. STROUD, OHIO STATE
Even if the Texans don’t love Stroud, I’m not sure there is a non-quarterback in this class who would be worth drafting ahead of a quarterback like Stroud.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: DI JALEN CARTER, GEORGIA
If you have a great 3-tech, you can prevent the quarterback from being able to step up in the pocket, and you can make life easier on your edge defenders. If they don’t trade this pick, Carter would be my pick. He’s the superstar, physically, of this draft class.
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