- Trade: The Houston Texans traded away the No. 12 and No. 33 selections in 2023, plus a 2024 first-round pick and 2024 third-round pick for the No. 105 selection and right to take Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3 overall.
- Wrong to get fixated on one player: When you obsess over a particular player, you start sacrificing things to ensure you get that player rather than accept the reality that the chances are pretty good that the next guy on the list is as good or even better if you miss out.
- Spent too much on Anderson: If the Texans traded for the next Myles Garrett, you can make the case that the price — steep as it was — was worth it. Anything less than that (the vast majority of all possible outcomes), and they dramatically overpaid when using the alternative capital was a better allocation of resources.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
The Houston Texans sacrificed too much in their pursuit of Will Anderson Jr. in the 2023 NFL Draft, even if Anderson becomes an elite player for them.
Picking early in the NFL draft is always a potentially franchise-altering event, and that potential impact is only magnified if you’re picking early multiple times.
Drafting good players is always a goal with every selection, but it isn’t the goal, as stated by some NFL executives, particularly to the exclusion of all other considerations.
The NFL draft is a complex game, and playing that game to maximize your return and influence on winning games both in the short and long term is the ultimate goal.
With Davis Mills at quarterback to end the 2022 NFL season, the Texans needed to come out of the first round this year with a new quarterback of the future. Whether or not they had eyes on Bryce Young as the clear best prospect in this draft, they couldn’t pass up the opportunity to draft the next-best player at the most important position in the game unless everybody was in lockstep to sacrifice this upcoming season and instead target one of the top quarterbacks in next year’s draft instead.
Whether that decision came from ownership or the front office is irrelevant, once it was made, drafting a quarterback at No. 2 overall was always the correct play — they would still have Nos. 12 and 33 overall picks to select potential starters and couldn’t rely on a quarterback they liked making it to either selection.
Instead, Houston seemed to get fixated on Anderson and refused to accept leaving this draft without adding him to the team as well as C.J. Stroud.
Getting fixated on individual players is where teams get into trouble in the draft. Any analysis of draft history highlights how bad the entire league is at identifying players as a general rule. The higher the draft the better they are at it in general terms, but by and large, this is not a high-percentage play at any position, and the more draft picks you have the better chance you have of actually unearthing players that can dominate at the next level.
When you obsess over a particular player, you start sacrificing things to ensure you get that player rather than accept the reality that the chances are pretty good that the next guy on the list is as good or even better if you miss out.
Anderson was the top edge rusher on most people’s boards and arguably the one true blue-chip prospect in this draft. He was No. 1 on the consensus big board, but the next edge rusher (Tyree Wilson) came in at No. 6, just a few spots lower down.
There is a much stronger case for Anderson being a better prospect and NFL player than Wilson from evaluating their college tape and production, but history suggests that the gap between the two shouldn’t be seen as a yawning chasm, as there’s a strong possibility that even players taken later on like Myles Murphy or Will McDonald IV will end up surpassing either in the NFL.
The Texans ended up trading up from No. 12 to select Anderson as well, giving up No. 12, No. 33 and a future first-round pick (their own) to make it happen. There were also third-round selections involved going either way, but they are close enough to call it a wash for the purposes of evaluating the deal.
It’s easy to say that there is risk in giving up a future first-round selection that could end up being the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, but the Texans are actually tied with the second-worst win-total futures line after the draft. The betting market effectively expects this pick to be the No. 2 overall selection in 2024.
If that’s the case, the Texans traded three picks in the top 33 across two drafts to select one player.
Whether you focus on surplus value, as Timo Riske did here, or PFF WAR (wins above replacement) in your analysis, the conclusion is basically the same — Anderson needs to be absolutely elite in the NFL for this to even be a discussion. If the Texans traded for the next Myles Garrett, you can make the case that the price — steep as it was — was worth it. Anything less than that (the vast majority of all possible outcomes), and they dramatically overpaid when using the alternative capital was a better allocation of resources.
I like Anderson as a player, but in his college career, he didn’t hit Garrett's level, let alone project that to the NFL. Anderson’s best season at Alabama saw him post a 20.9% pass-rush win rate, almost 10 percentage points worse than the best season we saw from Chase Young. Last season, in the NFL, Garrett’s win rate was 25.6% and 10 different edge rushers exceeded that high water mark of Anderson.
Ultimately, this felt like the Texans were compulsively buying at the store. They saw a shiny new edge rusher and simply had to have it, even knowing that it wasn’t a smart financial decision. After drafting a quarterback at No. 2 overall, Houston still had two more picks in the top 33, and a first-round selection next year that is expected to be in the top five. The best strategy they could employ was to use those picks and reluctantly allow another team to draft the apple of their eye — Anderson. Instead, they mortgaged the future and put the big purchase on the credit card, knowing it would cost them down the line, but at least ensuring that they would walk out of the store with the thing they really wanted.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.