Fantasy Football: 2024 IDP bounce-back candidates

• Javon Hargrave is coming off another strong season, but it didn’t quite translate to IDP: Lower sack and tackle totals in 2023 caused a fantasy production drop for one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league.

• Jeremy Chinn is a lock to bounce back in 2024: After a nightmarish 2023, Chinn is set to start again, doing so in an ideal defense for safety production.

• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!

Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

Injuries and inefficiencies are the plagues of the fantasy football world, but for the fantasy managers who are willing to forgive and forget, several options are ready to make things right in 2024.

Listed below are seven players who fantasy managers have depended on in the past but are coming off down years. Not included are more obvious options who played fewer than 10 games in 2023, such as Matt Judon and Uchenna Nwosu Instead, we focus on players who missed some time and/or also disappointed as fantasy assets when they were on the field in 2023.

Referenced scoring uses the settings below, with a link to all point leaders for 2022 and 2023 (minimum of 100 defensive snaps) here.

PFF-Preferred IDP Scoring

DT Javon Hargrave, San Francisco 49ers

Hargrave, 31, is among the best defensive tackles in the NFL. However, his first season with the 49ers in 2023 wasn’t as strong as fantasy managers hoped after his career year in terms of sacks the season prior. Sacks play a significant part in how well defensive linemen score in IDP fantasy football. Hargrave's seven sacks in 2023 is a good number, but it wasn't quite enough to push him into that locked-in weekly starter production for IDP.

Hargrave went from 12.0 fantasy points per game in 2023 (DT14) to just 9.1 (DT28) in 2023, in large part due to the aforementioned drop-off in sacks. As discussed in detail here, sacks and sack rate are unreliable metrics to lean on year-to-year, but using a player’s expected sacks is a more stable and predictive metric.

Hargrave’s pass-rush grade and expected sacks totals in 2023 were top-10 marks at his position, yet his points per game total suffered a fair bit from that drop-off in actual sack production. His tackle numbers also declined.

Coming through and delivering those big plays more consistently will be the biggest factor in Hargrave's potential bounce back in 2024.

EDGE Za’Darius Smith, Cleveland Browns

Another older defensive lineman who is still earning some of the best marks at his position, Za’Darius Smith re-signed with the Cleveland Browns this offseason to partner up with reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett once again. Smith’s bounce-back candidacy is based entirely on his lower sack total in 2023 (5.5), which wasn’t indicative of his actual play.