Fantasy News & Analysis

Fantasy Football: Best values in Rounds 4-10 on Underdog Fantasy

2WA6R18 Arizona Cardinals' Kyler Murray plays during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts: Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts is in line for a career year. 

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray: Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray set four career highs as a rusher following his return from ACL reconstruction (ACLR) last year.

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren: Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren established himself as one of the league’s premier dual-threat running backs last year.

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes


Best ball scoring formats have made fantasy football a year-round endeavor and high-value average draft position (ADP) opportunities are already taking shape in Underdog Fantasy’s half-points per reception (half-PPR) platform. The article below breaks down three NFL players whose early May ADP should be exploited aggressively by savvy year-round drafters.

6.03, TE6 Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts should be drafted with confidence at his 6.03, TE6 Underdog Fantasy ADP thanks to improved health, positive 2023 performance indicators and significant environmental upgrades. Fantasy managers should expect Pitts to produce career-highs in all major counting statistics. Pitts’ 72.7 PFF receiving grade ranks 11th among 31 NFL tight ends with at least 45 targets

Fantasy managers understandably drafted Pitts aggressively in 2023, expecting his 2022 Grade 3 MCL tear to be fully healed. In June 2024, Pitts revealed via Instagram that his knee injury also included a PCL tear, which notoriously requires a longer time to heal. 

Despite the slow return, Pitts produced promising data points. Among qualifying NFL tight ends, Pitts finished with the deepest average depth of target (ADOT, 12.0), the third-highest deep-target rate (12.8%) and the second-highest explosive pass play rate (30.2%). His per-route efficiency was derailed by Atlanta’s errant quarterback play, finishing with the 16th-best YPRR (1.43) and the second-highest contested target rate (24.4%).

Pitts’ 2024 outlook includes a healthy knee, plus quarterback and play-calling upgrades. 

Atlanta signed free agent quarterback Kirk Cousins this offseason before drafting his heir apparent in the 2024 NFL draft’s first round, former Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Both players boast strong, reliable arms and pocket-passing profiles. Among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 275 dropbacks, Cousins’ 85.1 PFF passing grade ranks seventh, his 43.7% past-the-sticks throwing rate ranks fifth and his 80.5% adjusted completion rate ranks first. Among 34 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 370 dropbacks, Penix’s 90.5 PFF passing grade ranks fifth, his 10.7-yard ADOT ranks fourth and his 1.9% turnover-worthy-play rate ranks ninth.

Team owner Arthur Blank jettisoned head coach Arthur Smith and his run-heavy playbook this offseason, replacing him with a pair of Los Angeles Rams; former defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, now Atlanta’s head coach, and former passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach Zac Robinson, now Atlanta’s offensive coordinator. Atlanta’s 2023 offense tied for 24th in offensive plays per drive (5.8) and 31 in pass-play rate (56.1%). Both figures should rise to the Rams’ respective 2023 rates (6.2, 10th and 60.3%, 19th) this year.

Pitts should produce a career-best season in 2024.

8.02, QB10 Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is a steal at his current 8.02, QB10 ADP thanks to high-volume and high-value play-calling, a talented pass-catching corps and an elite rushing profile. Murray’s 72.4 PFF offense grade ranks 21st among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 475 offensive snaps.

Hired in 2023, Arizona’s new head coach Jonathan Gannon continued former head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s fast-paced, play-action-heavy play-calling, ranking second and 16th, respectively, in offensive plays per drive (6.8 plays) and play-action-pass rate (23.6%) with Murray under center from Weeks 10-on, following Murray’s return from ACLR. 

Murray protected the football while finding his footing, producing a second-ranked 1.8% turnover-worthy play rate, ranked among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 275 dropbacks, despite throwing to a shallow pass-catching corps.

Arizona rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and tight end Trey McBride form the best one-two pass-catching punch of Murray’s five-year career. Harrison ranked second on PFF’s 2024 big board and his 89.6 PFF receiving grade ranks fourth among 22 Power Five wide receivers with at least 100 targets in 2023. McBride broke out in year two, producing a fifth-ranked 80.5 PFF receiving grade, ranked among 31 NFL tight ends with at least 45 targets.

New starting slot receiver Greg Dortch brings elite post-catch talents to three-wide receiver sets, pairing a 9.7-yard ADOT with an eighth-ranked 6.4 yards after the catch per reception average, ranked among 103 NFL wide receivers with at least 35 targets. His 71.2 PFF receiving grade ranks 47th. 

Second-year possession wide receiver Michael Wilson will compete with inefficient (1.05 YPRR in 2023) field-stretching wide receiver Zay Jones, whose 61.5 PFF receiving grade ranks 65th among 74 NFL wide receivers with at least 60 targets. Wilson’s 68.7 PFF receiving grade ties for 59th. His 14.9 yards per reception rank 24th and his 95.0% catchable pass catch rate ranks 12th. The two form a decent No. 3 wide receiver platoon.

Murray’s ACLR showed no ill effects in the ground game; he set four career rushing highs including missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.18), missed tackles forced per scramble (0.31), yards per scramble (10.1) and first-down and/or touchdown conversion rate on scrambles (50.0%).

Fantasy managers should expect Murray to comfortably beat his QB10 ADP. 

8.06, RB26 Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers running backs Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris are being respectively drafted via 8.06, RB26 and 8.04, RB24 ADPs despite Warren’s 2023 RB24 breakout and Harris’ slide from the 2022 RB15 to the 2023 RB26. Warren established himself as an elite producer in his own right and fantasy managers should expect him to play his way into a lucrative 2025 contract in good health, behind an upgraded offensive line.

Warren and Harris’ respective rushing and receiving data among 37 NFL running backs with at least 150 rushing attempts and among 38 NFL running backs with at least 35 targets:
NFL RB Rushing & Receiving Jaylen Warren Najee Harris
PFF Rushing Grade 84.4 (No. 9) 77.2 (No. 20)
Yards/Rush Att. 5.2 (No. 1) 4.0 (No. 22)
MTF/Rush Att. 0.36 (No. 1) 0.2 (T-No. 15)
YAC/Rush Att. 3.7 (No. 2) 3.0 (No. 11)
PFF Receiving Grade 72.2 (No. 8) 58.5 (No. 27)
Target Rate 27.1 (No. 4)  16.6% (No. 28)
Yards/Route Run 1.41 (No. 6) 0.83 (T-No. 27)
MTF/Rec. 0.40 (No. 5) 0.32 (T-No. 9)
Explosive Pass Plays Rate 11.1% (No. 16) 3.2% (No. 36)

Both players are incentivized to produce career-best results, as neither man is under contract in 2025. The front office notably declined Harris’ 2025 fifth-year option this offseason, though a report indicates Harris prompted the move, hoping to sign a lucrative free agent contract next year.

Warren (25 years old) and Harris (26 years old) are both in their theoretical athletic prime, yet Warren’s body is in far better health than Harris’. Warren’s only recorded injury is a Grade 1 hamstring strain from 2022. Harris has three recorded foot injuries including a Lisfranc sprain, two ankle sprains, an elbow sprain and an unspecified abdomen injury.

Pittsburgh upgraded the offensive line via the 2024 NFL draft, selecting former Washington left tackle Troy Fautanu in the first round and former West Virginia center Zach Frazier in the second. Fautanu secured the Pac-12’s 2023 Morris Trophy, given annually to the conference’s best offensive and defensive linemen as voted by opposing players. Among 100 Power Five tackles and centers with at least 765 offensive snaps, Fautanu’s 76.7 PFF offense grade and Frazier’s 78.3 PFF offense grade both rank inside the top 25. Frazier’s 74.8 PFF run-blocking grade notably ranks 18th.

Warren is a lock to sail past his high-end RB3 ADP.

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