Fantasy Football: Biggest surprises of the 2023 season — running backs

• Kyren Williams shocks the world: 2023’s PPR RB2 in points per game came out of nowhere this year to deliver one of the biggest pleasant surprises of the season.

• Breaking out in a big way: Rachaad White not only had a breakout season but finished as the PPR RB6, putting him in elite territory.

• The decline of Najee Harris: The 2021 first-round pick took a backseat in the Steelers' backfield for much of the year, burning fantasy managers who trusted him and his top-10 running back ADP this offseason.

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Every NFL season is full of surprises, both good and bad, and 2023 was no exception. Plenty of fantasy assets emerged seemingly out of nowhere to become quality starting options, and others let us down, either due to injury, poor play and inefficiency or getting benched.

In this article, we’ll look at some of the pleasant surprises and surprise disappointments at running back from 2023, leaving out players who missed significant chunks of time due to injury.

Pleasant surprise: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

Far and away the most pleasant surprise at the running back position in 2023 was Williams' emergence as an elite fantasy running back, which happened immediately in Week 1 when he carried the ball 15 times and punched in two rushing touchdowns. Williams' efficiency right out the gate, combined with Cam Akers‘ ineffectiveness, provided the team with an easy choice of who to roll with in the backfield. Akers was traded just a few weeks later.

Despite spending a four-game stint on injured reserve, Williams totaled 1,144 yards through Week 17 (second most) and 12 rushing touchdowns (tied for fourth most). As a player who went undrafted in most leagues and was rostered in just 10.3% of ESPN leagues before Week 2 waivers ran, Williams became everything fantasy managers could want out of a running back.

Across 12 games this season, Williams never touched the ball fewer than 12 times per outing, averaging 22 touches per game on the year — an elite mark. As a result, he finished as the PPR RB5 overall and was second only to Christian McCaffrey in PPR points per game (21.3) at the position — a massive improvement from his RB91 finish and 3.8 points per game in 2022.

Pleasant surprise: Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

With all the excitement surrounding rookie De’Von Achane heading into the season, Mostert went overlooked in plenty of drafts, often being taken after his rookie teammate throughout the offseason. While Achane was great in spots this season and a surprise in his own right, it was Mostert who consistently delivered for fantasy managers as the PPR RB2 through the first 16 weeks of the season. Mostert led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns this year, adding three receiving scores.

Unfortunately, Mostert was unable to help fantasy managers finish off the year in Week 17, but the return on investment that he provided as the RB41 in ADP heading into the year was more than anyone could have hoped for. Mostert’s 17.8 PPR points per game was good for the fourth-best mark at the position, helped by the fact that he never recorded fewer than double-digit touches in 15 games this season, averaging a high-end 16.3 per game on the year.

Mostert will be 32 years old at the start of the 2024 season, but he’s also still expected to be under contract with the Miami Dolphins and will have a shot to be an age outlier for the position once again, as he comes in ranked as the RB15 in Nathan Jahnke’s early 2024 rankings.

Pleasant surprise: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

White made the list of breakout running back candidates heading into this season, and while I was higher than most on White heading into the year, delivering an overall RB6 finish in PPR scoring was much better than expected.

Drafted as the RB24 in full-PPR leagues, White was expected to be the lead back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season, but there were also concerns about whether the team would bring in competition at the position or if he’d be efficient enough to hold onto the job. White put those worries to rest by averaging 20 touches and 15.9 fantasy points per game (PPR) — both of which are excellent numbers for the position.

White was essentially a less efficient Christian McCaffrey throughout the season when looking at his involvement in the offense. Both players were the only running backs to carry the ball more than 250 times, catch at least 60 receptions, record more than 530 receiving yards and lead the position in snap share at around 80% of their team’s offensive snaps.

White found the endzone just nine times on the year compared to McCaffrey’s 21 — which is what makes McCaffrey elite — but White still delivered above expectations throughout the season and was easily one of the pleasant surprises of the year.

Pleasant surprise: Devin Singletary, Houston Texans

Dameon Pierce averaged 17 touches per game through the first eight weeks of the season but managed just one rushing touchdown and not a single top-12 PPR finish over that span. Pierce then missed time with an injury, which allowed Singletary to step in and shine the rest of the way, even finishing as the PPR RB9 from Weeks 9-17.

Singletary went on to touch the ball 18.9 times per game from Weeks 9-17, which allowed him to deliver three top-five PPR running back finishes on top of the ninth-most fantasy points by a running back. Singletary was one of the top waiver-wire additions for most fantasy rosters at the midpoint of the year, and his high-end opportunity and production were enough to include him on this list as a pleasant surprise.

Devin Singletary | Weeks 9-17

Surprise disappointment: Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

Ekeler was highlighted as 2023’s most disappointing player in PFF’s fantasy awards article, so not much more needs to be said about his poor season, outside of just a handful of weeks on the year. While Ekeler did miss three games early in the year, he ranked just 22nd in PPR points per game (13.3), which doesn’t sound so bad, but when considering that he was often the second running back drafted within the first five picks this year, it’s a poor return on investment for a player who appeared in 13 games.

Ekeler also had eight games where he finished outside of the top 20 PPR running backs — a feat that happened only twice through Week 17 last season. Another four of those down games for Ekeler were outside of the top 30 PPR running backs in those weeks, which never happened in 2022, when he finished as the PPR RB1. It's just another reason his 2023 season was a massive disappointment.

Surprise disappointment: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

While many fantasy analysts warned about the potential of Harris entering a timeshare with fellow Steelers running back Jaylen Warren — which turned out to be true for most of the year — Harris was still drafted as the ninth overall running back and finished as the PPR RB27 despite not missing a single game this season. Harris also ranked just 35th among running backs in PPR points per game (10.7).

Harris managed just three top-12 PPR finishes — and one came in Week 17, which was great for those who trusted him — but he also had seven games where he finished outside of the top 30 PPR running backs, making him one of the worst returns on investment this season.

Harris was arguably not even the best running back on his own team, as Warren finished as the PPR RB20 this season. The 2021 first-round pick struggled with inefficiency in his first two seasons in the NFL and, to his credit, was better in that regard this season, but it came at the cost of a lighter workload that ultimately ruined his 2023 value.

Najee Harris | NFL Career

Surprise disappointment: Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings

After Dalvin Cook‘s release from the Minnesota Vikings, Mattison was expected to step right into Cook’s prior workload and, if not replicate his production, at least come close to it. While Mattison had a handful of games where he was used as a workhorse running back, even delivering six top-24 PPR finishes, that was the extent of his ceiling in 2023 before he ultimately trailed off into obscurity.

Mattison’s disappointing season mostly came down to inefficiencies as a runner, averaging 3.9 yards per carry — which ranked tied for 37th among running backs. His 8.6 PPR points per game ranked just 42nd among running backs, despite his being Minnesota’s lead back for most of the first 12 weeks of the season. Mattison eventually lost that starting role to Ty Chandler coming out of the team’s Week 13 bye, the final nail in the coffin for the 20th running back drafted this offseason.

Surprise disappointment: Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers

Drafted in the same range as Mattison (RB19 in ADP), Sanders failed to live up to his strong 2022 campaign in which he finished as the PPR RB15 with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Sanders was expected to be the clear RB1 for the Carolina Panthers, and for at least the first few weeks of the year, that was true. However, much like Mattison, Sanders’ ineffectiveness as a runner on an already poor offense gave the team no choice but to seek help elsewhere on the depth chart, which allowed Chuba Hubbard’s role to increase before he ultimately overtook Sanders as the team’s lead back in Week 6.

Sanders continued to get (limited) opportunities, but the damage was done once he lost his starting job, as he not only failed to live up to his RB19 ADP but also finished as one of the most ineffective running backs of the entire season. He recorded just one touchdown on the year compared to his 13 from last year, making him a disappointment in every sense of the word.

Miles Sanders | 2023 Season