• T.J. Watt’s potential EDGE1 successor could be his own teammate: Alex Highsmith set a career-high in pass rush metrics to help his case for 2024’s EDGE1.

• Can anyone usurp Foyesade Oluokun for the LB1 throne?: There may be several candidates, but one stands above the rest in checking all the necessary boxes.

• Dominate fantasy football season with promo code PFF25: Unlock all of PFF's fantasy content and tools, including full access to the fantasy football mock draft simulator, for 25% off using promo code PFF25.

Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes

Each year, some players come out of nowhere to deliver huge fantasy seasons, especially in IDP leagues given the relative instability of NFL defenses. With that in mind, let’s focus on some of the darkhorse options that have the best shot to be the next IDPs to surprise fantasy managers in 2024.

These darkhorse options are all going outside of the top 10 at their position according to ADP collected by The IDP Show from IDP-only drafts that have been taking place regularly throughout this offseason.

Referenced scoring uses the settings below, with a link to all point leaders for 2022 and 2023 (min. 100 defensive snaps) here.

PFF-preferred IDP scoring:

EDGE DEFENDER

Before locking in our choice for the dark horse EDGE1 for 2024, it will be important to look back at the past few seasons to see the anatomy of what made up the past EDGE1 finishers in IDP.

• Both Watt and Crosby hit double-digit sacks and over 34 QB hits, putting them among the league's most productive pass-rushers. 
• Watt is exceptional at converting sacks, which goes a long way for fantasy points but is one of the harder things to replicate in the NFL.
• Tackle production was also significant with both players ranking inside the top 12 at their position in total tackles in all three seasons. Crosby led the position in 2022 (and 2023).

• To become the most productive pass-rushers in the league, the underlying pass-rush metrics have to be exceptional for the position as well.
• Expected sacks (as explained here) are our most stable and predictive metric for future sacks, so performing well in this regard is crucial for 2024 success.
• Both players also finished top 10 in PFF pass-rush grade in their EDGE1 seasons.
• Both were well above average in terms of pressure rate and win rate in each season as well (min. 250 pass-rush snaps).

With all of these criteria in mind, we can turn our attention to a top candidate to finish as the darkhorse ED1 this coming season. 

2024 Darkhorse EDGE1: Alex Highsmith, Pittsburgh Steelers

• 2024 ADP: EDGE19

Choosing T.J. Watt’s teammate as the player to surpass him this season as EDGE1 probably makes Highsmith even more of a darkhorse, but there also might not be a better fit outside of the top 10 in ADP. The Steelers deploy both Watt and Highsmith at a high rate, both on run and pass downs, as each played over 900 defensive snaps for over an 80% snap share. For Highsmith, this has allowed him to deliver at least 57 tackles in each of the past three seasons, finishing no worse than top 20 in that regard while accumulating the third-most tackles (193) at his position over that span.

Watt and Highsmith playing together has its potential advantages as well. Highsmith created five sacks with his initial pressure last season, three of which were converted by Watt. However, Watt created six sacks with his initial pressure, but Highsmith somehow didn’t benefit from any — a number we can expect to bounce back closer to the mean in 2024. 

In 2022, Highsmith delivered an overall ED10 season thanks to 12 sacks. However, in 2023, he managed just seven sacks despite setting new career highs in pass-rush grade (86.2), win rate (18.1%), pressure rate (14.6%) and, most importantly, expected sacks rank (11th). This tells us a lot more about a player’s potential for this season than just his previous sack totals, and for Highsmith specifically, with most of those numbers representing top-12 marks at the position, it says that he can get back to delivering double-digit sacks again this season. The combination of playing time, tackle production and potential for double-digit sacks makes Highsmith the clear candidate for our 2024 darkhorse ED1.

Honorable mention: Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

Edge and defensive interior players share similar traits when it comes to which ones emerge as elite IDPs each season, though, as will be highlighted below, certain differences can lead to DT1 seasons compared to our ED1 options.

• Sacks are difficult to come by for interior defenders, and as highlighted above, only Cameron Heyward of past DT1 finishers was a high-end pass-rusher over the last three years.
• Derrick Brown and Christian Wilkins made up the majority of their fantasy points as tacklers. This is often the case for defensive tackles, as they average between 75-80% of their fantasy points from tackles while edge defenders only average between 60-65% (using our preferred scoring).
• Ideally, we’ll be looking for a balance between tackles and sacks where our IDPs aren’t overly reliant on one over the other. Several of last year’s top-10 DTs delivered below 65% of their fantasy points from tackles, including DeForest Buckner, Justin Madubuike, Zach Sieler, Christian Barmore and Aaron Donald.

• 2021’s Heyward had strong tackle production, but he did more damage as a pass-rusher than each of the past two season’s DT1s, who were almost exclusively tackle-only producers.
• Both Brown and Wilkins led their position in tackles versus expected in their DT1 seasons, generating elite tackle rates that also led to position-leading tackle totals.

With an understanding that our IDP DT1 can come as a result of either strong pass-rush or tackle production, the best place to focus will be on players who can provide both avenues for success.

2024 Darkhorse DT1: Jonathan Allen, Washington Commanders

• 2024 ADP: DT13

Allen is coming off a DT11 finish in 2023, even with it being a relatively down season in terms of tackle and sack production. Considering his pass-rush metrics, playing time and ability to rack up tackles, there is plenty of reason for optimism that he can bounce back and deliver a stronger IDP season than his DT11 finish in 2023. Last year was the first year since his rookie season (when he only played five games) that he didn’t record at least 60 tackles, and his 5.5 sacks were his lowest mark of the past three seasons.

Allen has recently been one of the better pass-rushers at his position, quietly posting top-10 pass-rush grades in three-straight seasons from 2020-2022 before suffering from an uncharacteristic drop in performance across the board last season, including career-lows run-defense (37.9) and overall grade (59.7). And that’s where the bounce-back potential comes from. It also qualifies him as a darkhorse DT1 candidate as a 29-year-old volume-heavy star. Allen should benefit from a fresh start with Dan Quinn coming over as the new head coach, who just coordinated the Dallas Cowboys defense toward a top-five pressure total in the league last season.

For Allen, his pass-rush metrics provide the most encouragement, ranking 10th in win rate (15.0%) and 18th in pass-rush grade (77.6). This is what helped him rank top 12 in expected sacks for his position along with elite playing time, which should all continue into 2024. With that playing time, Allen’s tackle production can also bounce back closer to his career norm, and if he delivers on sacks as well, he has the potential to earn an overall DT1 IDP season.

Honorable mention: Javon Hargrave, San Francisco 49ers

LINEBACKER

Opportunities and tackles are king when it comes to fantasy linebacker production, and that’s represented by nearly 85% of linebacker fantasy production coming from tackles – more than any other IDP position. This is important information for fantasy managers because while not easy, predicting tackle rates is still much more stable than predicting the non-tackle box score stats (sacks, fumbles, interceptions, etc.).

Finding our next IDP LB1 is easier said than done after the same man has reigned supreme for three straight seasons now and won’t relinquish his crown easily. 

• Foyesade Oluokun has now delivered three straight LB1 seasons, doing so on two different teams while leading the league in total tackles in 2021 and 2022 in addition to leading the league in solo tackles in 2023. 
• Oluokun has always been able to add a handful of big plays to his box score, which is expected for most linebackers who play over 1,100 defensive snaps in a season.
• For the most part, in order to get to that 17.0-plus points per game mark, our future LB1 should be able to at least deliver 80% of that as a tackler with room for positive variance in those big plays to help boost his ceiling just enough.

• There are several ways to maximize tackle production, but nothing is more important than overall playing time. Being an every-down linebacker and staying healthy for a full season will give anyone who fills those requirements a chance to lead the league in tackles.
• The team that the player is on and the defensive schemes that they run play a part as well in generating more tackle-efficient opportunities for the linebacker position. Typically, the more zone-heavy a team is, the higher tackle efficiency those plays will yield for linebackers. Oluokun’s 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars were on the high end of zone coverage rates and were over 60% the previous two seasons.
• Lastly, the player also needs to be above average in tackle efficiency and in Oluokun’s case, he ranked among the top 96th percentile in tackles versus expected in the past three seasons. 

2024 Darkhorse LB1: Azeez Al-Shaair, Houston Texans

• 2024 ADP: LB15

There are plenty of potential suitors who fit the necessary criteria to become the new LB1 in 2024, some going within the top 10 in ADP. A personal favorite is Al-Shaair, now of the Texans. Al-Shaair had a strong season in 2023 – his first year as a true full-time starter – delivering 163 total tackles (fifth-most) in a defense that didn’t make it easy on him, as it was more man coverage-heavy than most. 

Al-Shaair was able to rank among the top 76th percentile in tackles versus expected last season and after ranking above average in that regard in each of the past three seasons. Al-Shaair also ranked 99th percentile in tackles versus expected against the run – where most linebacker tackles come from – which allowed him to finish as the overall LB13 on the year.

This year, Al-Shaair reunites with his former defensive coordinator and linebackers coach in San Francisco, DeMeco Ryans, who ran a zone-heavy defense in 2023 and projects as a top-five defensive scheme for linebacker tackle efficiency (as highlighted here for 2024). In 2023, 88% of Al-Shaair’s fantasy production was derived from tackles, and with some more luck in the big play department thanks to playing a full-time role, he should be fully capable of delivering his best IDP year yet.

Honorable mention: Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos

SAFETY

The safety, and defensive back positions, as a whole, tend to see a lot more turnover at the top of fantasy scoring from year to year. Still, there are some similarities between past S1s that we can learn from to try and identify the next man up for 2024.

• Antoine Winfield did it all in 2023, delivering excellent tackle numbers combined with a steady influx of big plays to push his production over the top.
• In 2022, Jalen Pitre delivered absurd tackle numbers for the position while also adding a significant amount of big plays. 
• Harrison Smith also came through with the perfect combination of tackles and big plays in 2021 to reach those S1 heights.
• Ultimately, there’s going to be a reliance on big plays to actually come through as the IDP leader for this position on the year, as an average of 20% of DB fantasy production comes from non-tackles.

• Unfortunately, predicting big plays like interceptions and sacks is a fool’s errand, so the focus has to be on the metrics that are slightly more stable.
• Tackles are our best bet to try and project, which can be helped by potential usage and alignment within the defense.
• Winfield and Pitre didn’t necessarily play a high rate of snaps close to the line of scrimmage, but they both produced so much above average in either big plays (Winfield) or tackles (Pitre) that they’re significant outliers which is always difficult to replicate.

2024 Darkhorse S1: Budda Baker, Arizona Cardinals

• 2024 ADP: S17

Baker is no stranger to high-end IDP production and wouldn’t be considered a darkhorse in the past, but after a down year and dropping in value outside the top-15 at his position, he still checks all the boxes to get back into contention as the IDP S1. Helping Baker’s case is that he’s still among the elite tacklers at the position and despite playing just 12 games, he ranked among the top 90th percentile in tackles versus expected after ranking in the 98th percentile in 2022.

Missed time and falling on the wrong side of variance in terms of big plays let him go relatively unnoticed to those who just look at past fantasy points – a poor overall year-to-year indicator. Baker only delivered 1.5% of his total fantasy production from non-tackle stats – by far the lowest mark among all safeties (min. 100 defensive snaps). For a player who plays as much and as well as Baker, that is a number that is bound to bounce back, potentially significantly.

Baker also happens to play for a defense that projects as the best usage for potential safety tackle production (as highlighted here). A healthy season from Baker doesn’t require him to do too much else from what he’s been doing in order to get back to being that IDP S1, and getting a little luck in terms of big plays won’t hurt.

Honorable mention: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns

CORNERBACK

Cornerback continues the trend set with the safeties in that defensive back production continues to be among the most unstable year-to-year thanks to a high reliance on big plays for the top scorers. However, a few similarities stand out from these past two seasons that could help us find the next CB1 in IDP.

• Both Sneed and Moore were the only corners to hit triple-digit tackles in their respective CB1 seasons, which speaks a lot to the need for tackle opportunities and efficiency.
• Both players also played well over 1,000 defensive snaps in each of these seasons, which is naturally going to create opportunities for interceptions and pass breakups because they face a ton of targets along the way.
• Meanwhile, last year’s CB1 didn’t hit 1,000 snaps (964), but did set an NFL record for most pick-sixes in a season, which is going to help and not something to try and chase for IDP managers.

• As mentioned above, the high volume of snaps is going to create a high volume of targets which leads to tackle opportunities on top of interception and pass breakup opportunities.
• Two of the past three CB1s spent the majority of their snaps lined up in the slot and added a decent chunk of around 10.5% of snaps in the box, which both help significantly for potential tackle production.

2024 Darkhorse CB1: Taron Johnson, Buffalo Bills

• 2024 ADP: CB14

While not a true every-down player, coming off the field in certain sub-packages, Johnson is still averaging close to 90% of his team's defensive snaps over the past three seasons with the large majority of those snaps coming in the slot or the box. This prime alignment has allowed Johnson to clear 90 total tackles in back-to-back seasons, ranking among the top 96th percentile in tackles versus expected in each year as well. Johnson’s elite tackling ability, combined with opportunity, is clearly among the best at the position, which is a great first step in hitting that CB1 mark.

Johnson has delivered below-average fantasy points from big plays/non-tackles in each of the past two seasons, which, as mentioned multiple times throughout this piece, is something that can spike and dip on any given season and all full-time starters have a shot to benefit from the spike, with Johnson due for one himself. 2023 was Johnson’s first year without an interception since 2019 while his passes defended were also down from 2022. His usage on blitzes has allowed him to deliver at least one sack every year of his career, except for 2022. Helping his potential further, is getting targeted more than any other Bills’ defender in each of the past two years, increasing his opportunities for the tackles and big plays needed to finish as CB1.

Honorable mention: Kyler Gordon, Chicago Bears