Fantasy Football: Evaluating 2024 IDP defensive back tackles versus expected

• Budda Baker puts together an all-time season: Baker finished second in the NFL in tackles thanks to elite efficiency that is rare for the position.

• New York Giants rookie DBs deliver an encouraging rookie year: Both Tyler Nubin and Andru Phillips finished among the top performers in tackles versus expected in Year 1.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

At the end of each NFL season, it’s easy to look at where fantasy performers finished in scoring, but understanding why they finished where they did is often more important going forward. 

For the defensive back position, tackles are important, but their ability to make big plays often separates the scoring leaders from the rest of the pack. However, big plays like interceptions, sacks, and fumbles, are also wildly unstable, so focusing more on which safeties and corners can deliver strong tackle numbers is often the best starting point for IDP.

All expected tackle figures for defensive backs are derived from a combination of each player's individual play and situation. Focusing on their alignment, run or pass situation, what type of coverage they’re in, and how many snaps they played, their efficiency is compared to their peers' larger pool.

Top performers at safety

Players of note:

• Budda Baker, Arizona Cardinals: Baker stands out above the rest, and it isn’t even close. The Cardinals' star safety delivered 3.7 tackles over expected per game, which is the highest per-game rate since 2022. Baker doing this while playing safety is arguably more impressive and allowed him to finish second in the league in total tackles, the closest a defensive back has come to leading the league since 1996 when New York Jets safety Victor Green posted 165 total tackles and led the NFL.
• Kevin Byard, Chicago Bears: Byard’s 34.6 tackles over expected would have been the best mark of the past two seasons if not for Baker. That being said, Byard has been an elite tackler at the position, as this year was the second-straight season where he’s finished among the top 95th percentile in tackles versus expected.
• DeShon Elliott, Pittsburgh Steelers: Elliott wasn’t given a consistent full-time workload in 2024, but when he was on the field, his role closer to the line of scrimmage allowed him to be one of the best tacklers on the team, which has been a somewhat inconsistent trait, as he’s fluctuated from being a positive and negative performer in tackles versus expected since 2021.
• Nick Cross, Indianapolis Colts: Cross finished second at the position in total tackles, but he ranks fourth in tackles versus expected because he earned one of the highest expected tackle totals (112.1) at the position thanks to playing 42% of his 1,156 snaps in the box as Gus Bradley’s strong safety. With Bradley now fired, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Cross regress in 2025.
• Brandon Jones, Denver Broncos: Jones has finished no worse than 84th percentile in tackles versus expected in every season since 2021. Thanks to a full-time starting role and a relatively healthy season, Jones finished with a career-high mark in tackles versus expected and total tackles, finishing with triple-digit tackles for the first time in his career.
• Brian Branch, Detroit Lions: Branch was able to build on his already impressive rookie season as he made the full-time move to safety. Branch finished 97th percentile in tackles versus as expected as a part-time nickel corner as a rookie and now 96th percentile in that regard as a safety in Year 2. Branch should be considered one of, if not, the top options at the position in dynasty right now.
• Tyler Nubin, New York Giants: Also making his case for a high ranking in dynasty, Nubin’s rookie year found him among the top 95th percentile in tackles versus expected thanks to a decent role in the box in the latter half of the year and making the most of those opportunities prior to suffering a season-ending injury in Week 14.
• Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals: Battle’s second season in the NFL, much like his first, did not allow for a consistent full-time role, but he did seem to achieve that late in the year and lock himself in for a 2025 starting role. Battle finished 97th percentile in tackles versus expected as a rookie and 88th percentile in Year 2, creating much encouragement about him heading into Year 3.

The under-performing safeties:

Players of note: 

• Calen Bullock, Houston Texans: Not all rookie safeties can perform as strongly as Tyler Nubin, and Bullock – also a 2024 Day 2 safety, posted the worst tackles versus expected at the entire position. Bullock also played in the box at a significantly lower rate than any player at his position at just 6.8%. 
• Tyrann Mathieu, New Orleans Saints: Mathieu has been one of the league’s most inefficient tacklers at the position, finishing among the bottom first percentile in tackles versus expected in back-to-back seasons. He has not finished any better than the bottom 10th percentile over the past four seasons.
• Darnell Savage, Jacksonville Jaguars: Savage is another consistent underachiever, as he's finished in the bottom second percentile in tackles versus expected in three of the past four years.
• Kamren Curl, Los Angeles Rams: Curl had been one of the more effective tacklers at the position since 2021, however, a change in scenery to Los Angeles didn’t work out in his favor, as he went from finishing no lower than 85th percentile in tackles versus expected in the past three seasons to the bottom 20th percentile in that regard in 2024. Curl is under contract with the Rams for 2025, so more of the same is possible.
• Xavier McKinney, Green Bay Packers: McKinney’s first year with the Packers led to him being one of the best free agent signings of the past offseason as he finished as a top-graded coverage player for the second-straight season. However, his IDP season could have been even better if he was able to deliver stronger tackle numbers, which he proved capable of in 2023 when he finished 90th percentile in tackles versus expected.

Interested IDP managers can view the full list of positional rankings in Tackles vs Expected for this season and dating back to 2022 here.

Top performers at cornerback

Players of note:

• Andru Phillips, New York Giants: The Giants rookie dealt with injuries and the typical inconsistent playing time when manning the nickel corner role, but when he was on the field, he was among the best tacklers at the position thanks to allowing an 82% reception rate in his coverage (second). Phillips averaged just 68% of the team's defensive snaps and missed three games on the year, finishing as just the CB24 in points per game, but if he can absorb a larger role in 2025, he’s created reason for optimism that he can be a strong IDP as well.
• Riley Moss, Denver Broncos: As we’ll see here shortly, the Broncos corners not named Pat Surtain II often had targets funneled into their coverage to avoid PFF’s top coverage defender in 2024. 
• Mike Sainristill, Washington Commanders: Another rookie corner who performed above expectations, Sainristill held a full-time starting role for the entire season. Having started the year in the slot, Sainristill was still able to maintain strong tackle numbers when he moved to the outside, posting over 90 total tackles and ranking among the top 99th percentile in tackles versus expected.
• Paulson Adebo, New Orleans Saints: Adebo suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7 while he was the overall CB1 in IDP – a ranking that he held for several weeks after he was out – in large part due to a combination of high-end tackling and big plays. No player at the position posted a higher rate of tackles over expected per game (3.1) than Adebo as he was on pace to cruise to being the CB1 of 2024. 
• Ugo Amadi, New Orleans Saints: Following the Adebo injury and as the defense in New Orleans shifted to move Alontae Taylor (61st percentile) to the outside and Amadi took over the slot role, where he thrived as an IDP. Amadi averaged 2.0 tackles over expected per game this season, spending 81% of his snaps in the slot. Amadi is a pending free agent with no guarantees of a starting role in 2025.

The under-performing cornerbacks:

Players of note:

• Pat Surtain II, Denver Broncos: While Riley Moss benefited from Surtain’s elite coverage for IDP, that same elite coverage resulted in minimal opportunities for Surtatin to put up tackles, which will be a theme here among the top under-performers at the position.
• Quinyon Mitchell, Philadelphia Eagles: Mitchell established himself as a top coverage defender in the league as a rookie, but as is often the case, that created low IDP production, specifically as a tackler. This is likely to continue into future seasons as Mitchell potentially develops and gets better.
• Derek Stingley Jr., Houston Texans: Stingley is another strong example of a good NFL cornerback being bad for IDP as Stingley allowed just a 45.8% reception rate in his coverage – the second-best mark in the league – and did not allow for many tackle opportunities.
• Trent McDuffie, Kansas City Chiefs: McDuffie’s high-end coverage kept him from racking up tackles and repeating as the top-10 IDP cornerback that he was in 2023 as he also moved to the outside as opposed to his slot-heavy role last season.

Interested IDP managers can view the full list of positional rankings in Tackles vs Expected for this season and dating back to 2022 here.