Fantasy Football: How QB situations changed after first wave of 2024 NFL free agency

• The Atlanta Falcons receive the most obvious upgrade: Landing Kirk Cousins should be considered the greatest glow-up at quarterback for any team this offseason.

• 2024 Russell Wilson is an improvement for the Pittsburgh Steelers: Wilson isn’t the same player he once was, but there is a clear difference in what he offers versus Kenny Pickett over the past two years.

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With the NFL offseason in full swing and players changing teams via trades and free agency, the most important pieces of every team — quarterbacks — have also been on the move, creating some landscape shifts within the league. Some teams have seemingly found their new quarterbacks of the future, while others are still searching. Here is where these transitioning teams stand.

Atlanta Falcons

• Kirk Cousins
• QB Situation: Improved

The upgrade to Cousins certainly came at a cost ($45M per year for four years), and even though he’ll be coming off an Achilles injury at 36 years old, he is a substantial upgrade for a team that has spent a top-10 pick on skill position players in each of the past three NFL drafts. One of the biggest issues with past quarterbacks in Atlanta, be it Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke, was some of the league-worst accuracy issues that plagued their star receiving options from being able to deliver consistently.

Catchable Pass Rate and Rank Among QBs | Since 2022; Min. 150 attempts

Cousins not only brings better accuracy to the table, but his overall grades and numbers over the past three seasons are among the best in the league, including the sixth-best wins above replacement figure, the sixth-highest passing grade (88.3) and the tied-for-seventh-best offensive grade at the position (90.4). Cousins appears to be on track to start the 2024 season, barring any setbacks, and Falcons fans should be excited about the significant upgrade to their offense in 2024 and beyond.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Russell Wilson
• QB Situation: Improved

There’s an argument to be made about how much of an improvement the Year-13 version of Wilson is over Kenny Pickett, but it’s an improvement nonetheless. Pickett has had stretches of solid quarterback play and mistake-free football early in his NFL career but hasn’t been able to generate much offense on a team that has more-than-capable playmakers at the wide receiver, tight end and running back positions.

Pickett has more than 800 NFL dropbacks and has managed just 13 passing touchdowns. The average amount of passing touchdowns over the past two years for quarterbacks with at least 800 dropbacks in the regular season is 45. Wilson comes in slightly below that average himself over the past two seasons (42), though still nearly 30 more passing touchdowns than Pickett on a little over 200 more dropbacks.

Again, this isn’t the same Russell Wilson who won the Super Bowl several years ago, having posted the three lowest seasonal passing grades of his career over the past three years in Seattle and Denver. However, Wilson brings a big-play upside that just wasn’t there with Pickett, and that could be the difference in creating more wins in tight games, which the Steelers figure to be in as they retool. Pickett’s 2022 season resulted in a 4.3% big-time throw rate, which is a career-best figure. Wilson has never posted below a 4.4% big-time-throw rate through 12 seasons in the NFL and averages 6.5%, including 5.6% this past season. While Wilson is more susceptible to turnovers than Pickett, the Steelers are clearly looking to accept that trade-off for those bigger plays and touchdown potential.

New England Patriots

• Jacoby Brissett, potentially a rookie
• QB Situation: Improved

New England decided to move on from 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones this offseason, trading him to Jacksonville after he lost his starting job late in 2023 and failed to improve upon his strong rookie season, where he led his rookie peers in passing grade (78.5).

Unfortunately, Jones declined in that regard over each of the next two seasons, ultimately leading to the team turning to 2022 fourth-round Bailey Zappe to close out this past year, which wasn’t much better. Both Jones and Zappe earned PFF passing grades in the low 50s in 2023 and ranked 40th and 41st, respectively, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks in 2023. Jones also had the league’s worst turnover-worthy-play rate (5.8%), while Zappe tied for the seventh-worst mark (4.0%).

The Patriots have the third overall pick in this year’s draft and will certainly be in position to draft a quarterback. But for now, the team has brought in the veteran journeyman Brissett to potentially bridge the gap. Brissett has played some of the best football of his career over the past three years while serving as a fill-in quarterback in Miami, Cleveland and Washington. Among 59 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks since 2021, Brissett ranks 18th in passing grade (78.4), has the 24th-best turnover-worthy-play rate (3.1%) and has delivered the third-highest percentage of air yards (60.8%) on his attempts.

Should Brissett have to play this season as the Patriots' starter, or until a potential rookie quarterback is ready, then he should be considered an upgrade over what New England had last season.

Las Vegas Raiders

• Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell
• QB Situation: TBD

The Raiders are retooling their roster, specifically on offense after Jimmy Garoppolo and Hunter Renfrow were released and Josh Jacobs signed elsewhere. With the 13th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Las Vegas may not have a shot at the top quarterbacks — though, it's not impossible — which could push Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell into a starting quarterback role in 2024.

Minshew was apparently brought in to compete with the second-year quarterback O’Connell, who started 10 games last season and appeared in 11, earning a 64.6 passing grade and throwing for 2,218 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Minshew appeared in 16 games for the Indianapolis Colts in 2023, starting in 13 of them while posting a 60.6 passing grade and throwing for 3,305 yards, 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. With comparable numbers, it should be considered a true position battle heading into camp, but it’s difficult to imagine either player being the quarterback of the future for Las Vegas.

If either were to win the starting job and then struggle at all, it would be no surprise to see the other come in and start the rest of the way. For that reason, the Raiders' quarterback situation can only be considered “in flux” at this point, with a significant question mark looming over the future.

Denver Broncos

• Jarrett Stidham, Ben DiNucci
• QB Situation: Downgrade

Sean Payton and the Broncos were clearly unhappy with what they got from Russell Wilson over the past two seasons, and so they took on a historic $85 million dead cap hit by releasing him. Even with the recent decline in Wilson’s play, it’s difficult to imagine a world where the team's current quarterbacks, Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci, are upgrades over Wilson in 2024. There is still plenty of time to add to the quarterback room, and one has to believe they will, but as of now, this should be considered a clear downgrade from the play the Broncos got in 2023.

Stidham's best career passing grade (62.8) came in 2022 with the Raiders, but he appeared in just three games and threw for 656 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. Meanwhile, DiNucci has just one NFL season under his belt, 2020, where he posted a very poor 25.5 passing grade across two games. DiNucci spent 2023 in the XFL and was better, albeit against lesser competition, posting a 74.7 passing grade and throwing for 2,954 yards, 23 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. DiNucci was the clear leader in the XFL in turnover-worthy plays (20), which is a significant red flag as he transitions back to the NFL.

The best-case scenario for the Broncos right now may be to look at drafting a quarterback, which will be complicated at 12th overall, but there could be an opportunity to move up, as suggested in Trevor Sikkema’s latest mock draft.

Minnesota Vikings

• Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens
• QB Situation: Downgrade

Kirk Cousins is officially off to Atlanta, leaving the Vikings with a significant hole at the quarterback position. Much like the Raiders and Broncos, the Vikings are picking just outside of the top 10 in this year’s draft, and ahead of both teams, so they may get the first shot at a remaining quarterback — whether it be a J.J. McCarthy or a Bo Nix. That would provide more optimism about the Vikings’ quarterback situation. For now, we’ve seen what Darnold and Mullens provide in the NFL, and it’s a clear downgrade from Cousins.

Darnold has never delivered a season-long passing grade above 67.0 and has never ranked among the 25 highest-graded quarterbacks when he’s played at least 20% of the team’s dropbacks. Mullens, similarly, hasn’t cracked that top 25 when playing qualifying snaps, which tells a tale of what the ceilings could be should the Vikings head into the year with either as the expected starter.

Considering the weapons on offense, it would be a wasted opportunity to not take a swing on another quarterback, whether in the draft or via trade, but as of now, this is an obvious downgrade from 2023 and the Cousins era.