• Banking on a big breakout season for Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The second-year wide receiver has a great opportunity in Seattle for a breakout season.
• James Conner is a great late running back target for starting lineups: For those fading the running back position, Conner provides starting potential in the sixth round.
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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
The fantasy season can be a grueling journey of avoiding inefficiencies and injuries en route to an eventual championship. Hence, it’s often difficult to enjoy our favorite players while they’re grinding away fantasy points for us on a weekly basis.
With that in mind, this may be the last chance we get before Week 1 to be entirely positive about our most rostered players for the year, so listed below are players that I have ranked higher than consensus.
QB KYLER MURRAY, ARIZONA CARDINALS
- Sleeper ADP: QB9
- My Rank: QB7
Murray missed time in 2022 and 2023 and as a result, it’s been three years since his last top-12 finish. This season is primed to be his best chance of returning to that form.
Murray played just eight full games in 2023 and 10 in 2022 but showcased his high-end fantasy potential with 11 top-12 finishes (61%) in those 18 games while never finishing worse than QB22 in the weeks he played more than a quarter of the game. Murray’s floor remains high because of his high-end rushing upside, as he averaged 4.5 runs per game last season and accounted for 5.3 fantasy points per game — sixth at the position. Murray’s rushing ability helps give him an elite fantasy upside to make him one of the most enticing fantasy quarterback targets going outside the top five in ADP right now. If Murray can bounce back as a passer, his QB1 potential is also the best of that group.
Murray’s shortened 2022 and 2023 seasons resulted in his two lowest passing grades since his rookie year, but there is hope that with a full season and a big upgrade at wide receiver, he can get back to his strong 2020 and 2021 season ranks. Murray earned an 86.3 PFF passing grade over those two seasons, which were also the most productive fantasy years of his career when he had DeAndre Hopkins as his top target. Hopkins earned an 89.9 PFF receiving grade over that span (seventh at the position), but Murray hasn’t had a top receiving option like that since, including 2022 Hopkins, who just wasn’t as effective as he once was by that point. Tight end Trey McBride is one of those top options, and the addition of the top wide receiver in the 2024 draft, Marvin Harrison Jr., should provide the perfect combination of receiving talent to help push Murray over the top as a fantasy asset in 2024.
WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
- Sleeper ADP: WR45
- My Rank: WR33
Smith-Njigba appears primed for a big Year 2 after showcasing his talent and potential as a rookie in an offense that was unable to fully unleash him as the weapon he was drafted to be in 2023. Smith-Njigba commanded 90 targets across 17 games but had the sixth-lowest average depth of target (6.4 yards) in the league. As a result, his yards per route run (1.32) ranked outside the top 50 at his position, as did his total receiving yards (628). It should be noted that he played the first few games of the season with a cast on his wrist.
Smith-Njigba as a draft prospect ranked in the 99th percentile since 2019 in separation rate on throws 10-plus yards downfield (53%) while posting a 96th-percentile career yards per route run (3.32) at Ohio State. Smith-Njigba’s profile and success coming out of college have to be taken into account when considering his breakout potential in the NFL, as he’ll be just 22 years old this season with a lot of meat left on the bone for the new Seattle coaching staff to unlock in Year 2.
The Seahawks have stated several times this offseason that they expect big things from Smith-Njigba in Year 2, as he projects to be a significant part of their offense in 2024. This is important coming from a new coaching staff that was not a part of drafting Smith-Njigba in 2023. The fact that the coaches see how he can be utilized and understand that he’ll be key to the team’s offensive success is very encouraging heading into 2024.
It’s still up to the coaching staff, specifically offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, to utilize Smith-Njigba more efficiently. Staying on the field is going to be a crucial part of that when considering that D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are also more-than-capable NFL wide receivers. Grubb’s Washington Huskies spent a well-above-average rate for the FBS in 11 personnel over the past two seasons, utilizing players like Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan all at once and finding success in doing so. Pete Carroll’s Seahawks were right around league average in that regard last season.
Ideally, Smith-Njigba will play over Lockett in two-receiver sets, which would coincide with the younger up-and-coming wide receiver replacing an older and declining wide receiver. Smith-Njigba has been treated as a potential WR3 in my rankings versus the low-end WR4 that he’s currently being drafted as.
WR JAYLEN WADDLE, MIAMI DOLPHINS
- Sleeper ADP: WR18
- My Rank: WR14
Waddle is entering the fourth year of his NFL career, coming off a relatively down season in terms of his fantasy production in 2023 where he missed time due to injuries. He finished the year as the overall PPR WR29 despite finishing as WR8 in 2022 and WR12 as a rookie in 2021. Playing time played a big part in this because he missed three games and set a new career-low in routes run (385), which was about 140 routes short of his previous career-low. Even for a player as efficient as Waddle, dropping to a new career-low in offensive snap percentage (68%) when he was on the field, which can mostly be attributed to his injuries, played a significant part in his opportunity to produce WR1 numbers. The hope is that he’s healthy this season and gets back closer to his 78.5% snap share from his previous two years combined, which will play a big part in delivering on this WR1 potential.
One of Waddle's biggest obstacles is that competing for targets with a top-three wide receiver, Tyreek Hill. Luckily, there’s evidence that Waddle can still command an elite target share and put up WR1 numbers with Hill in the lineup, evidenced last year when Waddle earned a 27.0% target rate, ranking sixth among all wide receivers. His 2.63 yards per route run also tied for sixth at his position and gives him two huge advantages in delivering potential WR1 production. Even Waddle’s 2.61 yards per route run since 2022 is the third-best mark among all wide receivers over that span, behind only Hill (3.49) and Justin Jefferson (2.72). His 24.0% target rate over that span ranks 17th and is right on the cusp of that necessary 25% that we’re looking to pair with the 2.50 yards per route run threshold — both of which Waddle hit in 2023.
Waddle is currently dealing with a calf injury, which would hopefully not hamper him for the entire season and sink his value again. The assumption that Waddle can get back healthy and play his normal snap share would help him push for a top-12 finish at his position.
RB JAMES CONNER, ARIZONA CARDINALS
- Sleeper ADP: RB20
- My Rank: RB19
Conner is coming off the best season of his career after being ranked among the top 10 running backs in PFF rushing grade (88.4), yards after contact per attempt (3.93), missed tackles forced per attempt (0.29) and first down-plus-touchdown rate (27.4%). Impressively, he did that behind the 26th-ranked run-blocking unit last season, and the hope is that adding Jonah Williams and Evan Brown in addition to 2023 sixth overall pick Paris Johnson developing in Year 2 will lead to better play in the trenches.
Conner averaged a strong 17.3 opportunities per game last season (15.1 carries and 2.3 targets), which was well above average for the position. However, to maintain that workload, he’ll have to hold off Trey Benson — a third-round rookie — and not allow him to be anything more than a backup.
Conner received the majority of goal-line work last season — 52% of the team carries and 54% of red-zone carries. That is a promising sign the team will continue to deploy him in high-value fantasy situations, especially if the Cardinals can improve to above average in that regard this season.
While Conner has slowly risen in ADP throughout the offseason, there’s still some hesitance in drafters targeting the 29-year-old running back despite his career year in 2023. However, for those fading the position as a whole, Conner profiles as a strong candidate for a late-round starting target, with the opportunity to push for a top-12 finish on any given week.
TE JAKE FERGUSON, DALLAS COWBOYS
- Sleeper ADP: TE11
- My Rank: TE9
Ferguson may have to compete with last season’s overall target leader (179) and fantasy WR1, CeeDee Lamb, however, without the team adding any other significant competition for targets, there’s reason for optimism that he can even improve on his strong 2023 season.
Ferguson ranked top 10 among tight ends in targets (96), receptions (71) and receiving yards (761) despite Lamb posting elite utilization as a wide receiver. The Cowboys’ high-end offense led the league in red-zone plays last season, which resulted in a league-leading 36 passing touchdowns. Somehow, Ferguson only caught five of those touchdown passes despite ranking top five at his position in red-zone targets per game (1.4) and sixth in overall red-zone target rate (20.6%). Should that usage remain the same this season, there’s room for Ferguson to improve his touchdown totals in 2024.
Dallas relied heavily on Ferguson as its second-best target earner throughout most of the year, especially coming out of the team's bye week when he upped his playing time from 66% of Dallas' offensive snaps to 83% the rest of the year. During that stretch and into the playoffs, Ferguson received fewer than six targets just three times across those 12 games with his best game coming in the playoffs, when he earned 12 targets and caught 10 for 93 yards and three touchdowns. This happened to go along with Lamb earning 18 targets in that game. Ferguson and Lamb figure to once again be the Cowboys’ dynamic duo, and Ferguson has the best shot to improve his stock heading into Year 3 of his NFL career.
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