Fantasy Football Quarterbacks: 3 pass defenses to avoid in 2024

2T6Y2Y5 Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (14) celebrates his touchdown with linebacker Roquan Smith during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Terrance Williams)

Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore remains an elite defensive unit despite former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald’s departure.

New York Jets: New York’s defense features elite coverage personnel groups in both the secondary and starting linebackers corps.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Fantasy managers who employ a matchup-based approach at the quarterback position must know which defenses can shut down opposing passing games. The article below breaks down three such pass defenses whose elite defensive units should be avoided for quarterback matchup purposes in 2024.


Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens front office bolstered its already-elite defense through the draft and free agency this offseason, reinforcing its status as a pass defense to avoid for quarterback matchup purposes in 2024 despite, former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald’s departure.

Baltimore’s 2023 defense ranks top-three across the board in success rate allowed (30.2%), expected points added (EPA) per play allowed (-0.134) and positive EPA rate allowed (39.1%). Its 9.6% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks No. 1. The secondary allowed just 3.47 yards per coverage snap, the third-fewest among NFL secondaries.

Baltimore safety Kyle Hamilton functions as an elite utility player, frequently flipping between free safety (306 snaps), strong safety (240 snaps) and slot cornerback (482 snaps). His 80.1 PFF free safety coverage grade ranks seventh among 64 NFL free safeties with at least 199 free safety coverage snaps, and his 87.3 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks second among 32 NFL defensive backs with at least 225 slot-coverage snaps. 

The front office replaced departed safety Geno Stone (85.3 PFF coverage grade) with former Chicago Bears safety Eddie Jackson (60.0 PFF coverage grade), whose persistent foot issues following his 2022 Lisfranc fracture have negatively impacted his play. Jackson was a dominant safety before the injury, earning two Pro Bowl roster spots and one first-team All-Pro selection from 2018-19. Despite his struggles, Jackson still produced the second-best forced incompletion rate of his career (22.2%) last year. 

Should the part-time role behind Hamilton reduce Jackson’s re-injury risk, Baltimore can make a seamless transition in the post-Stone era. 

The front office notably spent first-, fourth- and seventh-round picks on their cornerback unit this offseason, further strengthening a unit that ranked 13th among NFL cornerback corps with a 71.2 PFF coverage grade.

Linebacker Roquan Smith’s 83.1 PFF coverage grade ranks fifth among 32 NFL linebackers with at least 440 coverage snaps. He ranks ninth in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.81), eighth in targeted rate (11.4%) and third in forced incompletion rate (10.3%). 

Baltimore retained its starting interior defender trio while hoping its young edge rushers can step up in former edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney’s absence. Among NFL interior defender pass-rush units, Baltimore’s group ranks in the top five in both EPA per play allowed (-0.112) and positive EPA allowed rate (41.2%). Its 73.5 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 14th. 

Among 64 NFL edge rushers with at least 295 pass-rushing snaps, Clowney’s 79.0 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 18th, Odafe Oweh’s (25 years old) 77.4 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 22nd and third-year edge rusher David Ojabo has earned a 63.2 PFF pass-rush grade when healthy. He suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon in 2022 and a partially torn ACL that required surgery in 2023. 

Baltimore’s defense is one to avoid for quarterback matchup purposes in 2024.


New York Jets

The New York Jets front office shuffled its pass-rush personnel this offseason, but the defense’s starting lineup remains elite top-to-bottom. It is a unit to avoid for quarterback matchup purposes in 2024. 

New York perimeter cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed coupled with slot cornerback Michael Carter II form the league’s best starting cornerback trio. Among 64 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 320 perimeter-coverage snaps, Gardner ranks second in both yards allowed per coverage snap (0.42) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (1.0%) and first overall in both targeted rate (9.2%) and forced incompletion rate (23.4%). His 89.8 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ranks second. 

Reed ranks 16th in explosive pass plays allowed rate (1.9%) and 14th in forced incompletion rate (0.85). His 76.2 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ranks 13th. 

Among 32 NFL defensive backs with at least 225 slot-coverage snaps, Carter ranks fifth in targeted rate (12.8%), third in forced incompletion rate (15.2%) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (0.8%), second in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.54) and first in catch rate allowed (54.4%). His 86.6  PFF coverage grade ranks third. 

The unit is backed up by 2023 CFL standout cornerback Qwan’tez Stiggers, who earned an 85.0 PFF coverage grade last year.

Incumbent free safety Tony Adams is joined by strong safety Chuck Clark, who spent 2017-22 in Baltimore before suffering a Grade 3 ACL tear prior to the 2023 NFL season. Adams’ 65.2 PFF coverage grade ties for 33rd among 65 NFL safeties with at least 350 coverage snaps. Clark earned a 66.1 PFF defense grade in 2022.

Linebacker C.J. Mosley’s 90.6 PFF coverage grade and Quincy Williams’ 88.6 PFF coverage grade rank Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, among 32 NFL linebackers with at least 440 coverage snaps.

New York’s defensive line holdovers include game-wrecking interior defender Quinnen Williams, Jermaine Johnson (73.7 PFF pass-rush grade) and Will McDonald IV (68.9 PFF pass-rush grade). Among 34 NFL interior defenders with at least 400 pass-rushing snaps, Williams ranks third in pass-rush win rate (19.5%), second in pass-rush productivity (8.7) and second in quarterback pressure rate (16.1%). His 84.5 PFF pass-rush grade ranks ninth.  

New York’s pass defense is one to avoid in 2024.


Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns‘ defense turned in excellent coverage and pass-rushing metrics last year despite multiple starters missing time. The unit is one to avoid for quarterback matchup purposes, now in full health in 2024. 

Cleveland’s No. 2 perimeter cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. is the only member of the starting secondary who was available to play all year, though he rested in Week 18. The unit’s four remaining starters all missed multiple games. Emerson’s 62.5 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ranks 40th among 64 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 320 perimeter-coverage snaps.

Among NFL secondaries, Cleveland’s unit ranks top eight in yards allowed per coverage snap (3.95) and explosive pass play rate (8.1%) and top three in catch rate allowed (59.8%), first-down and/or touchdown conversion rate (29.4%) and forced incompletion rate (14..7%).

Free agent signee linebacker Jordan Hicks will start opposite 2023 Pro Bowl linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who effectively dissuades quarterbacks from testing his coverage outside of quick-hitting pass plays. His 1.5-yard average depth of target (aDot) ranks second among 65 NFL linebackers with at least 270 coverage snaps. His 26.1% first-down and/or touchdowns allowed rate ties for 10th and his 73.2 PFF coverage grade ranks 17th. Hicks’ 60.6 PFF coverage grade ranks 34th.

Hicks will likely be used as a pass-rush booster after finishing as one among just seven NFL linebackers to total 100-plus blitzes in 2023. His 11.5% pass-rush win rate on qualifying snaps ranks fourth.

Cleveland’s defensive line retained its elite starting lineup from last year, which should again yield game-changing results in 2024. Among NFL defensive lines, Cleveland’s ranks sixth in quarterback pressure rate (35.8%), fifth in pass-rush productivity (27.2), second in pass-rush win rate (56.1%) and first in both EPA per play allowed (-0.199) and positive EPA rate allowed (37.2%). 

Cleveland’s defense is one to avoid for quarterback matchup purposes in 2024.

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