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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors, and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I have developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR.
Last week, I developed a regression to the mean model utilizing a new metric I created: Predicted WOPR (PWOPR for short). The aim was to pinpoint players who might benefit from positive regression, like Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low model. The model performed well in Week 7, too, successfully identifying George Pickens as a breakout candidate.
The engine for this model was constructed using PFF's route-level data to forecast the likelihood of a player receiving a target, as well as the expected number of air yards associated with that play.
These can create some powerful metrics: “share of predicted targets” and “share of predicted air yards,” both of which are more predictive and stable than their actual counterparts.
Using both share of predicted targets and share of predicted air yards, we can create a new metric: Predicted WOPR (PWOPR).
PWOPR = (1.5* Share of Predicted Targets) +
(.7 * Share of Predicted Air Yards)
PWOPR is very predictive and very stable:
I covered the details of the model in my previous “route-based heroes” article, but the key takeaway is that PWOPR offers stability in predicting player performance, whereas fantasy points can be unpredictable. By leveraging PWOPR, we can identify underachieving players poised for breakout games.
One of our standout selections last week was George Pickens, who emerged as a route-based hero and delivered a phenomenal performance.
This model can be utilized to pinpoint potential breakout players for fantasy football or DFS. While not every player will deliver on their promise, those appearing on this list are more likely to exceed expectations than players selected at random.
For instance, if Ja’Lynn Polk continues to struggle to capitalize on his opportunity (20 targets over his last four games with only four catches), he may simply get benched for better alternatives.
Now, to examine some names on this week’s table:
• Marvin Harrison Jr. is an intriguing name on the list. He demonstrated his explosive potential with a 29 PPR-point performance in Week 2 and will need another standout game to match his current PWOPR.
• Calvin Ridley might become a regular feature in this article. Although he plays in a subpar passing offense, he holds the best PWOPR on the team, yet they are struggling to consistently get him the ball.
• Tank Dell is highlighted as a potential breakout candidate this week against a Colts defense that ranks fourth in the league in single-high coverage. This coverage is generally more favorable for elite wide receivers to have standout performances.
• Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are prominent on the list, especially with Tua Tagovailoa returning this week against a team that recently allowed 349 passing yards to the typically run-heavy Chargers. While the Dolphins may exercise caution with Tua's return, that likely means a higher volume of quick passes to Hill and Waddle.
• Jerry Jeudy continues the trend of Alabama wide receivers on this list and could be a high-upside play this week. Deshaun Watson has struggled this season, but if Jameis Winston steps in, he could provide a significant upgrade to the Browns' passing game, potentially sparking Jeudy to a breakout performance against the Ravens in a game where the Browns may find themselves playing from behind.
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