• Arizona Cardinals: The defense’s centerfield personnel groupings are comprised of targetable players, top to bottom.
• New York Giants: Aside from two-star players, New York’s defense is among the league’s worst.
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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Identifying exploitable NFL run defense is crucial in making week-to-week lineup decisions for the RB2 and flex positions but identifying these units well in advance can give fantasy managers an advantage even in drafts. Drafting running backs who play in soft divisions or face weak opponents late in the year can give one a season-long leg up. The article below breaks down three NFL run defenses that should be targeted for fantasy purposes in 2024.
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona's interior defensive personnel groupings are among the league’s worst. The trend extends to the run game as well. Arizona’s interior defenders, linebackers and safeties make for a run defense to target in 2024.
Arizona’s projected interior defenders, Justin Jones, Roy Lopez and Bilal Nichols, all possess glaring weaknesses. Jones is a seventh-year journeyman whose 24.9 percent negatively-graded run-play rate ranks fourth-highest among 80 NFL interior defenders with at least 200 run-defense snaps and Nichols sits just 11 spots lower at 20.7 percent. Lopez’s 2.71-yard average depth of tackle ties for 59th.
Second-round rookie edge rusher Darius Robinson (6-foot-5, 285 pounds) respectably earned a 76.1 PFF run-defense grade lining up as an interior defender in 2022, but his pass-rushing talents are needed on the edge.
Arizona’s linebacker corps is comprised of journeymen cast aside by the teams that drafted them. Projected starters include Kyzir White (60.3 PFF run-defense grade) and Mack Wilson Jr. (71.7), with Krys Barnes (58.9 PFF run-defense grade) potentially operating as a frequent contributor. Among 77 NFL linebackers with at least 170 run-defense snaps, neither White nor Barnes’ PFF run-defense grades rank inside the top 50. Wilson (95 run-defense snaps) fails to qualify, having functioned as a backup with the New England Patriots last year. White’s 15.4% negatively-graded run-play rate ranks 10th-highest while Barnes’ 4.78-yard average depth of tackle ranks seventh-deepest. Wilson has produced a 14.0-plus percent negatively-graded run-play rate in three-of-five NFL seasons.
Aging safeties Budda Baker (28 years old) and Jalen Thompson (27 years old) each missed six run-defense tackles last year, tying for 20th-most among 64 NFL safeties with at least 225 run-defense snaps. Baker’s two tackles for loss or no gain is a career-low and his 6.7% negatively-graded run-play rate. The latter rates ranks eighth-highest. Thompson’s 11.8-yard average depth of tackle ranks fifth-highest and is his first such double-digit depth since 2020. Baker’s 67.0 PFF run-defense grade ranks 31st and Thompson’s 54.6 PFF run-defense grade ranks 58th.
Arizona’s run defense is one to target in 2024.
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans front office added capable edge rushers to the front-seven rotation this offseason but allowed three of the team’s top-six run-defense tacklers to walk in free agency. The transition to a pass-oriented defense is logical for the modern NFL but in its current form, Houston’s run defense is one to target in 2024.
Former Houston linebackers Blake Cashman (82.3 PFF run-defense grade) and Denzel Perryman (77.9 PFF run-defense grade) combined for 72 run-defense tackles. Both players top 16 among 64 NFL linebackers with at least 245 run-defense snaps.
Former Tennessee Titans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (73.7 PFF run-defense grade, sixth among qualifying NFL linebackers) was effectively brought in to replace both players, with holdovers Christian Harris and Henry To’oTo’o almost incapable of contributing positively. The signing is not guaranteed to pan out though; Al-Shaair’s 11 missed run-defense tackles tie for 10th-most and his 13.4% negatively-graded run-play rate ranks 14th-highest.
Harris and To’oTo’o effectively function as on-field liabilities, unable to cover tight ends nor tackle opposing running backs. Among 77 NFL linebackers with at least 170 run-defense snaps, Harris owns the second-highest missed tackles tally (15) and the eighth-highest negatively-graded run-play rate. To’oTo’o’s nine missed tackles tie for 13th-highest, his 15.6% negatively-graded run-play rate ranks seventh-highest, and his four tackles for loss or no gain tie for 61st.
Among 63 NFL edge rushers with at least 190 run-defense snaps, former Houston edge rusher Jonathan Greenard ties for 25th in tackles (26), 16th in stops (21) and ranks 14th in positively-graded run-play rate (18.8%). His 69.7 PFF run-defense grade ranks 26th. Houston’s new inside/outside edge rusher Denico Autry finished with the eighth-highest negatively-graded run-play rate (10.6%). His 52.0 PFF run-defense grade ranks 58th.
Among 85 NFL interior defenders with at least 190 run-defense snaps, Houston’s new interior defender Folorunso Fatukasi’s 60.7 PFF run-defense grade ties for 36th.
Among 64 NFL safeties with at least 225 run-defense snaps, Houston safety Jalen Pitre’s 12 missed tackles tie for the positional high. His 62.4 PFF run-defense grade ranks 42nd.
Houston’s run defense is one to target in 2024.
New York Giants
The New York Giants defense features two elite players flanked by nine subpar starters, and the Giants offense’s likely inability to keep up on the scoreboard should frequently provide the opposition with ample clock-killing rushing opportunities. The unit is one to target in 2024.
New York interior defender Dexter Lawrence and trade-acquisition edge rusher Brian Burns are elite players capable of having an outsized impact but the defense’s overall deficiencies are too large for head coach Brian Daboll to scheme around. Lawrence’s 92.9 PFF defense grade ranks second among 69 NFL defensive linemen with at least 680 defensive snaps and Burns’ 74.7 PFF defense grade ranks 38th.
The remaining defensive line starters include holdovers, edge rusher Kavon Thibodeaux and interior defender Rakeem Nunez-Roches, plus 6-foot-6, 341-pound free agent signee nose tackle Jordan Phillips, who will evidently play out of position as a 3-4 defensive end. None of the three are likely to have a positive impact.
Among 116 NFL interior defenders with at least 135 run-defense snaps, Phillips’ 25.2% negatively-graded run-play rate ranks third-highest and he is one of just six qualifying players who failed to record a tackle for loss or no gain. His 30.0 PFF run-defense grade ranks bottom three. Nunez-Roches’ 43.8 PFF run-defense grade ranks 95th. He also failed to make a tackle at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Among 63 NFL edge rushers with at least 190 run-defense snaps, Thobodeaux’s 3.24-yard average depth of tackle ranks just 49th, despite his reputation as a penetrating defensive presence. His 52.3 PFF run-defense grade ranks 57th.
The unit also lost stud safety Xavier McKinney in free agency, one of last year’s best overall defenders. Among 64 NFL safeties with at least 225 run-defense snaps, his 13 run-defense stops tie for 16th and his 70.5 PFF run-defense grade ranks 26th.
New York questionably maintained its ineffectual starting linebacker duo, Micah McFadden and Bobby Okereke. Among NFL linebacker corps, New York’s linebacker corps allowed the third-highest positive expected points added (EPA) rate (41.5%) while totaling the third-most run-defense missed tackles (26).
Even with starting quarterback Daniel Jones back under center following his successful ACL reconstruction (ACLR), the outlook is bleak. Among 41 NFL quarterbacks with at least 300 offensive snaps, Jones’ 63.0 PFF offense grade ranks 33rd. The offense’s -0.211 EPA per play with Jones under center in Weeks 1-5 last year ranks 31st among NFL offenses.
New York’s run defense is one to target in 2024.
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