• Mike Williams‘ injury should lead to more Gerald Everett production: That likely means more routes and snaps for Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, especially on deeper routes, but Everett is still a sturdy presence on underneath and intermediate routes for Justin Herbert. His 74.0 receiving grade is seventh among all tight ends in the NFL, and his 6.5 yards after catch per reception is sixth-highest.
• Jake Ferguson remains a top sleeper: Despite the drops, Ferguson is the TE11 in PPR and has averaged 9.95 points per game since Week 2. He’s still one of the best yards-after-catch tight ends in the NFL — averaging 5.3 yards after catch per reception, ninth-most in the NFL — and he has the second-most targets on the Cowboys this season, behind CeeDee Lamb.
• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
Blink and you’ll miss it. Before you knew it, we’re heading into Week 4 of the NFL season. This past week was another strong outing for tight ends in fantasy football. There were 10 total tight ends who finished with double-digit points in Week 3, and our sleeper picks from last week averaged a solid 9.05 points per game. That was a mixed bag, though, as Hayden Hurst and Dalton Schultz finished with 2.10 and 1.90 points respectively.
However, those of you who started Sam LaPorta repped the benefits of the current TE2 finishing with 22.40 points against the Atlanta Falcons. It’ll be hard to consider him a sleeper pick along the rest of the way, but we’ve still got four other sleeper options to consider starting in Week 4.
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Keep an eye out for Everett, as the tight end missed practice on Wednesday due to sickness, but as of now, he’s still on track to play on Sunday. If that’s the case, Everett has a chance to make a splash against the Las Vegas Raiders. Through three weeks, Everett is the TE18 in PPR format and has caught 11-of-12 targets for 98 yards. He hasn’t had the biggest impact, but the loss of Mike Williams for the rest of the season means everyone’s role behind him likely grows.
That likely means more routes and snaps for Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, especially on deeper routes, but Everett is still a sturdy presence on underneath and intermediate routes for Justin Herbert. His 74.0 receiving grade is seventh among all tight ends in the NFL, and his 6.5 yards after catch per reception is sixth-highest.
Even without the absence of Williams, Everett would still be a starting option. Per our matchup tool, Everett has a 24% matchup advantage over his potential primary defender, Divine Deablo in Week 4. Deablo has earned an above-average 68.4 overall grade this season, but the Raiders defense is allowing 25.7 points per game and an average of 10.5 fantasy points per game to starting tight ends.
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
Opponent: New York Giants
A former first-round pick with the Denver Broncos, Fant hasn’t exploded onto the scene the way he was anticipated to. However, he’s carved out an adequate role for himself with the Seattle Seahawks over the last year. Fant’s start to the 2023 season has been a little quiet, as he’s only been targeted nine times through three games — the 33rd most targets among all tight ends — but he was targeted five times against the Carolina Panthers in Week 3, catching four passes for 41 yards.
Fant’s 74.1 receiving grade is sixth-best among tight ends this season, and he was the TE17 in Week 3 with 8.1 points — more than Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, and Dalton Kincaid. That won’t keep up forever, but Fant presents an interesting option in Week 4. The Seattle Seahawks take on the New York Giants and, per our matchup tool, Fant has a neutral matchup advantage over his primary defender, Isaiah Simmons. Typically, that isn’t much to shout about, but the Giants' defense is a mess so far this season. They’re allowing 32.7 points per game, the third-most in the NFL, and have struggled against tight ends this season.
George Kittle scored 16 points against the Giants in Week 3, and Zach Ertz scored 11.60 points in Week 2. If Fant can keep up his streak and garner five or six targets against a struggling defense, he could be the next tight end to hit double-digit points against this defense.
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals weren’t expected to be good in 2023, or anything close to resembling a competitive football team, but they beat the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 and their two losses have been one-score games. All with Josh Dobbs at quarterback. The Cardinals are a tough team to beat.
One of the bright spots on offense has been the quiet reemergence of Zach Ertz, the veteran tight end has been productive through three games. He’s caught 14-of-20 targets — the fourth-most targets among all tight ends — for 83 yards. That’s not explosive at all, and Ertz has offered very little after the catch, but those receptions in PPR formats are crucial. Only T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, and Sam LaPorta have more catches in 2023.
Ertz has a tough matchup in Week 4 against the San Francisco 49ers and Fred Warner and has a 39% matchup disadvantage against the All-Pro linebacker, and Warner is being targeted on just 12% of routes covered. He’s still elite. So, picking Ertz on the surface doesn’t make sense.
But take the volume. Ertz might only average around 5.9 yards per reception, but he’s averaging just under five catches per game and is the TE14. Last week's game script didn’t call for a lot of passing from the Cardinals, but they’ll likely be playing from behind against the 49ers for much of the game. His ceiling might not feel too high, but Ertz can comfortably snag 10 fantasy points per game.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: New England Patriots
You may be bored of seeing Ferguson’s name on this list, but there’s a good chance he’ll be a sleeper favorite from now until the end of the season, especially if he can shake off the early-season drops that have plagued him. Despite the drops, Ferguson is the TE11 in PPR and has averaged 9.95 points per game since Week 2.
He’s still one of the best yards-after-catch tight ends in the NFL — averaging 5.3 yards after catch per reception, ninth-most in the NFL — and he has the second-most targets on the Cowboys this season, behind CeeDee Lamb. Ferguson is getting the opportunities, and though only three of his catches have been converted for a first down, that’s promising. It feels like he is on the cusp of breaking out.
The Cowboys take on the New England Patriots in Week 4 — a tough matchup against one of the better defenses in the NFL — and they’ll be looking to rebound from that upset loss to the Cardinals in Week 3. Despite the strength of the Patriots' defense, Ferguson benefits from a 17% matchup advantage against his likely primary defender, Ja’Whaun Bentley, and Dak Prescott will look to take advantage of that matchup.
The hope for Dallas is that they can work through the red zone issues that have plagued them so far this season too. The Cowboys are 25th in red zone EPA but have been in the red zone more than any other team this season. The good thing? Ferguson has been targeted in the red zone eight times -more than any other player in the NFL this season. Those targets will eventually turn into touchdowns.
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