• The Sincere McCormick show ends early: The Las Vegas Raiders‘ breakout running back suffered an ankle injury against the Atlanta Falcons and didn’t return.
• Minnesota Vikings win with the usual suspects: Aaron Jones Sr., Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson all surpassed 10 PPR points in a decisive Vikings victory over the Chicago Bears.
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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
PFF's fantasy football recap focuses on player usage and stats, breaking down all the vital information you need to achieve fantasy success in 2024.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
- Justin Jefferson: 7 receptions, 73 yards, 1 touchdown
- Aaron Jones Sr.: 18 carries, 86 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 receptions, 20 receiving yards
The Chicago Bears are hurting at running back: Roschon Johnson missed his second consecutive game due to a concussion, and D’Andre Swift isn’t at 100%.
Swift appeared on the injury report heading into Week 14 with a quad injury, which caused him not to practice that Wednesday or Thursday. He was a limited participant in practice on Friday, was declared questionable and ended up playing. This week, he was dealing with a groin injury and followed the same pattern regarding practice and game statuses.
Last week, Darrynton Evans was elevated from the practice squad and took just a few early-down snaps, while Swift played the vast majority of early snaps. Travis Homer split passing-down snaps with Swift. Homer played more on early downs this week than in any other game this season outside of two-minute drills. Homer was also the clear third-down back. As the game progressed, Swift was more consistently on the field for early downs.
Swift still received plenty of touches. It was a clear tell in the first half that if Swift was on the field, he was likely getting the ball. He ended up with 4.2 yards per carry, thanks to a few nice runs in passing situations but was ineffective when the game was close.
Johnson might be worth a waiver-wire add at this point. The Bears have been eliminated from playoff contention, and Swift hasn’t been 100%. There is a chance they will shut him down at some point, in which case Johnson could be a feature back. In Week 17, the Bears play the Seattle Seahawks, which could be a fine matchup.
T.J. Hockenson still isn’t fully back: Hockenson received more playing time than usual this week, but it was largely driven by 11-personnel usage.
In 2023, Hockenson played 90% of Minnesota's 11-personnel snaps and 87% of 12-personnel snaps. In his first four games back this season, Hockenson played 56% of the 11-personnel snaps and 60% of the 12-personnel snaps. In the past two weeks, Hockenson was back to normal in 11 personnel at a 91% snap rate, but that came at a cost, with fewer 12-personnel snaps at a 50% rate. He has not been one to play in 21 personnel during his time with the Vikings.
This week, he remained on the field for nearly all of the 11-personnel snaps, as usual, but he played less than half of the 12-personnel snaps. The Vikings spent most of the first three quarters in 11 personnel but are usually a little more diverse in their personnel usage. In the fourth quarter, the Vikings largely stuck with two-wide receiver sets to run out the clock, which meant Hockenson wasn’t on the field as much. This ultimately left Hockenson playing a little more than usual. He caught five passes for 52 yards.
However, next week, we can expect the Vikings’ personnel usage to become more diverse again, in which case Hockenson’s playing time will likely regress to his usual rates. He is still someone who should likely be in fantasy starting lineups, but he remains a bigger risk than last season.
Miscellaneous Notes
- Bears backup wide receiver DeAndre Carter landed on injured reserve last week. The Bears opted not to replace him with another wide receiver on the 53-man roster. Instead, Tyler Scott was active after being a healthy inactive for the past few weeks.
- Chicago played around with personnel usage on its first 15 scripted plays. The Bears only used four-wide receiver sets on only six plays over the first 14 weeks, and they did so five times on the first two drives. They also used more 13 personnel than usual during that span.
- Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore tied his career high in rushing attempts, with three. He accomplished that within the first 10 minutes of the game.
Atlanta Falcons @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Ameer Abdullah: 3 carries, 8 yards, 7 receptions, 58 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown
- Bijan Robinson: 22 carries, 125 yards, 1 reception, 10 receiving yards
Monitor Sincere McCormick’s health: The Raiders' new lead running back suffered an ankle injury and was ruled out after halftime.
McCormick was given a small opportunity in Week 12 as Zamir White and Alexander Mattison both dealt with injuries. He played well and was given a larger role in Week 13, and he continued to play well, leading to a start and 17 touches in Week 14.
White landed on injured reserve, ending his season, but Mattison was ready to return this week after being a full participant in practice all week. Despite this, McCormick remained the starter and the focal point of the Raiders’ offense. He played in 14 of the Raiders' first 17 snaps, running the ball seven times while catching two passes. The ankle injury occurred early in the second quarter, and he was announced out just after halftime.
Ameer Abdullah took the first clear passing play of the game, while Mattison took the second. Mattison appeared to be injured on his first snap back, but he was able to return by the fourth drive of the game. The two generally split snaps over the rest of the contest.
McCormick is still available in nearly 70% of ESPN leagues. He would be among the top running backs available on the waiver wire if his injury is minor. The Raiders face the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints over the next two weeks, two of the worst eight teams at preventing fantasy points to running backs. McCormick can be a fantasy starter in both of those matchups if healthy. However, a week-to-week designation would make him droppable for the 30% of leagues in which he is rostered.
Atlanta continues to embrace 12 personnel: The Falcons made a drastic change to their offense last week and built on it this week.
From Weeks 2-13, the Falcons used 11 personnel on 96% of snaps in the first half outside of the two-minute drill. Those are the general set of plays where teams aren’t adjusting their personnel usage based on score differential or time left in the half. That was 14 percentage points more than any other team and 38 percentage points more than the league average.
Last week, they ran only 44% of plays out of 11 personnel in the same situation, with 50% of their snaps coming from 12 personnel. This week, it was 42% 11 personnel and 54% 12 personnel.
This has led to a clear drop in offensive snaps for Ray-Ray McCloud III, who plays in 11 personnel but rarely in 12 personnel. McCloud has been among the top-performing wide receivers this season among those available on the waiver wire. Still, this decrease in playing time has eliminated him from waiver-wire consideration.
That move should theoretically lead to improved production from Kyle Pitts. Charlie Woerner is taking all 12-personnel snaps, while Pitts is splitting time with Ross Dwelley. Pitts is playing a much higher percentage of 11-personnel snaps than in recent weeks. He received plenty of targets last week but brought in just one 14-yard catch. This week, Pitts caught all four of his targets for 28 yards.
Despite the increase in playing time, Pitts isn’t worth starting in fantasy leagues, given his recent poor production. He can be dropped from most fantasy rosters at this point.
Miscellaneous Notes
- Falcons backup wide receiver Casey Washington was inactive due to a concussion. This left Atlanta with only four active wide receivers.
Table Notes
• Snaps include plays called back due to penalties, including offensive holding or defensive pass interference. The other three stats have these plays removed.
• Targets may differ from official NFL sources. The most likely discrepancy would be from a clear thrown-away pass, where the NFL may give the target to the nearest receiver while this data will not.
• Carries are only on designed plays. Quarterback scrambles won’t count for the total number of carries in the game.
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