In its most boiled-down form, DFS involves the process of identifying the highest-scoring players at each position in a given week. With close to 20 playable options at the quarterback and tight end positions, along with even more at the running back and wide receiver positions, it is a feat in itself to identify one position correctly.
To finish at the top of a DFS contest, you must hit on basically all skill positions and circumvent the randomness associated with selecting defenses. Doing all of this while also fitting under the confines of a salary cap makes DFS one of the most difficult setups to beat consistently, especially in large-field tournaments.
Being first and foremost a data company, PFF has the ability to build and train models not only on public data but also PFF specific data, such as receiving grades and pass routes run, among a litany of other variables. Utilizing specific variables, we can build a model tuned to predict performances where a pass-catcher goes over a certain site-specific scoring threshold. This threshold is defined at 25 DraftKings, 20 FanDuel or 20 Yahoo receiving fantasy points.
This model provides the percentage chance that each receiver will meet or exceed our fantasy-point threshold for the site, given their historical opportunity. The model won’t be right on every player, but it is useful in identifying the performances that we want to unearth in our DFS lineups.
Week 5 once again felt good from a blow-up model perspective. We missed the slate breaking performance of Chase Claypool at 1% ownership, but few saw that play coming. Brandin Cooks was our favorite model play after a disappointing performance, and he responded with the second-best wide receiver fantasy performance on the main slate. Calvin Ridley was heavily utilized but failed to score a touchdown. Tyreek Hill was one offensive holding call away from an absolutely monster day. There were a couple of misses, especially at tight end — particularly in George Kittle. Let’s continue to identify some hits as we head into Week 6.
ADAM THIELEN ($7,300)
Justin Jefferson‘s emergence has lifted the production of the entire Vikings' offense. Thielen’s average depth of target has dropped off, but he has still been over a 30% target share in all games except Week 3. He has been up against or over 40% air yards share in every matchup this season. He is simply the most reliable pass-catching option in fantasy football at this time.
Thielen will enjoy the second-biggest matchup advantage in Week 6, according to our WR/CB matchup chart. He has unmatched upside yet is still projected to finish outside the top five of wide receivers in ownership on the main slate.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.