• Bet Jalen Hurts o1.5 pass TDs vs Commanders: He'll have his full complement of weapons vs Washington defense that's permitted 16 passing TDs, the second-most in NFL.
• Hurts tossed 3 TDs and averaged 0.35 EPA/play in first Commanders meeting.
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Last updated: Nov. 14, 2:20 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
Ben Brown: Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke — Under 0.5 passing TDs (+220)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +190
• This is the PFF prop tool's highest-graded bet Monday. Heinicke being PFF’s lowest-graded quarterback very much plays into this handicap, as the “quarterback winz” are masking what has been really poor play since taking over as the starter. With Carson Wentz set to return from IR next week, many are pointing toward this being Heinicke’s last hurrah and opportunity to win the starting job officially for the rest of the season.
• If things unravel quickly, this could maybe be a spot to give Sam Howell some looks: Especially if Heinicke continues having a turnover-worthy play on 8.2% of his dropbacks. Falling behind early will be catastrophic to the Commanders' upset chances, and if it happens because of a Heinicke miscue, it's possible we see a short leash on Monday night.
Arjun Menon: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts — Over 1.5 passing TDs (+100)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -110
• Hurts has thrown for 2+ TDs in each of his past 3 games and will now face a Commanders defense that has allowed 16 total passing TDs this year, which is the 2nd-most in the NFL. Hurts will have his full plethora of weapons to throw to, and the Eagles offense will have the rest advantage in this game, coming off a mini-bye. Last time vs the Commanders, Hurts threw 3 TDs and averaged 0.35 EPA/play, while Philly's run game had its worst outing of the year. It's most likely the Eagles lean into their aerial attack Monday, looking to beat the Commanders by throwing, rather than running the ball.
PFF Forecast: Eagles 1H -6.5 (-121)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -8
• The Eagles may not have covered their first-half spread in Week 9 against the Houston Texans, but we are going back to the well with them this week against the Commanders. The Eagles entered Week 10 fielding the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense in expected points added per play in the first half of games this season. Meanwhile, the Commanders were at 30th and 12th, respectively.
• A strong defensive line spearheads the Commanders' defense, but even that unit might not have the edge against the Eagles' offensive line, widely considered a top group. Where Washington does struggle is in the secondary, and Philadelphia's pass-catching trio of Dallas Goedert, Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown are perfectly suited to take advantage of that. The Vikings' top three pass-catchers combined for 252 yards against the Commanders in Week 9, and we could see a similar result for the Eagles.
• Philadelphia will be also coming off a mini bye week, which will give them the rest advantage in this game. Being at home in a divisional matchup atmosphere should also help them early in this game.
A $20 BET ON A TWO-LEG PARLAY WITH HURTS 2+ TDs, EAGLES -6.5 1H WOULD NET $53 AT BETMGM.
PFF staff best bets are 80-69-1 entering MNF in Week 10.
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