Joe Burrow’s historic season: Ranking his 2024 campaign among top QBs on losing teams

• Joe Burrow has been one of the NFL's best players all year: The former No. 1 overall pick ranks second among quarterbacks in overall grade and leads the league in Wins Above Replacement.

• A rare feat: Since 2009, Burrow is one of only eight quarterbacks to earn a grade as high as his and still not play for a winning team.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

The Cincinnati Bengals rank 17th in overall grade, not to mention sit ninth in EPA per play on offense. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have all earned overall grades of 81.6 or better, with Chase leading the NFL in catches, receiving yards, touchdowns and yards after the catch. Edge rusher Trey Hendrickson paces the entire league in quarterback pressures and has put up an 89.2 overall grade through 11 weeks.

And yet, the Bengals are 4-7 with just a 10% chance to make the postseason, according to PFF's ELO rankings. Six of Cincinnati's seven defeats have come within 7 points — including losses to the Chiefs, Ravens (twice), Commanders and Chargers. To put it another way, the 2024 Bengals may just be the best 4-7 team ever.

The primary reason that Cincinnati even has a fighting chance every week is Burrow's outstanding play. His 90.4 overall and 89.3 passing grades rank second in the NFL, trailing only MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson. Burrow is also top-10 in big-time throw rate (4.9%), turnover-worthy play rate (1.7%) and passer rating (106.9).

In the last two weeks in particular, it’s felt like Burrow has single-handedly put the entire Bengals team on his back to resuscitate what’s appearing like a wayward season. He went toe-to-toe with Jackson on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 before the team failed to convert on a 2-point try to win the game. Then, in the second half against the Chargers in Week 11, Burrow went 16-of-35 with 245 yards, three touchdowns and four big-time throws, climbing out of a 21-point deficit only to lose 34-27.

Burrow’s season has felt like a modern-day Sisyphus tale, with his heroics not affecting the Bengals’ ability to actually churn out wins. In fact, it begs the question: is Burrow putting together the best quarterback year ever on a team with this bad a record?

The short answer is no, although Burrow finds himself in rather rare company.

Since 2009, only eight quarterbacks have posted numbers in the same echelon as Burrow and been on teams with losing records. More specifically, just eight of 80 quarterbacks (10%) have posted an overall grade of at least 86.0 (minimum 200 dropbacks) and had their team finish below .500.

Highest-Graded Quarterbacks on Losing Teams (min. 200 Dropbacks)

The starkest example is likely Deshaun Watson in 2020, who posted a 92.4 overall grade, 91.1 passing grade, a 7.4% big-time throw rate and just a 2.0% turnover-worthy play rate. Somehow, Houston went only 4-12 despite a season where Watson was virtually top-three in every advanced metric.

Another standout is Aaron Rodgers on the 2018 Packers, who finished with a dismal 6-9-1 record. Rodgers netted an 89.0 overall grade, an 86.3 passing grade, a 5.5% big-time throw rate and a minuscule 1.5% turnover-worthy play rate.

Although most Drew Brees/Sean Payton Saints teams were juggernauts, New Orleans’ results didn’t match Brees’ production from 2014-15. Across both of those years, Brees finished with at least an 86.8 overall grade and an 84.8 passing grade, but the team went a combined 14-18.

Burrow’s 2.53 WAR is still the most in the NFL. He would likely join Jackson, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen squarely in the MVP race if his team had finished on the other end of the hypothetical spectrum at least once, if not twice.

Given that Cincinnati plays the 20th-hardest schedule left over its final seven games — and can make up ground against the Broncos in Week 17 — it doesn’t feel like the 2024 campaign is entirely buried. But Zac Taylor’s bunch officially has zero room left for error, likely needing to go no worse than 5-1 in that stretch.

Unfortunately, it’s appearing increasingly likely that a spectacular season from the Bengals’ franchise signal-caller will be all for naught — except for a historical anomaly, joining a list of ill-fated names to compile fabulous years but not even finish with a winning mark.