The case for Saquon Barkley to be the NFL MVP

• Saquon Barkley has gotten more effective as he's gotten more carries: Since Week 6, Barkley leads the NFL with 150 carries, but he’s done so with incredible efficiency: he averages 6.4 yards per carry and over 136 yards per game.

• An uncanny ability to ice games: Barkley leads qualified running backs in fourth-quarter rushing yards, first downs, touchdowns, yards per carry and rushing grade.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

When the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley in the offseason, they surely envisioned him as a good fit for a team already equipped with an elite offensive line and one of the NFL’s premier rushing quarterbacks in Jalen Hurts.

But even they couldn’t have imagined that Barkley would respond with a potentially historic season in which he is on track to break Eric Dickerson’s famed rushing record. On the heels of a fantastic 255-yard rushing performance, there is a case to be made that Barkley would be the league’s Most Valuable Player if the season ended today.

Let’s go through some of the elements that would work in his favor.

Baseline Statistics

First and foremost, Barkley leads the NFL in scrimmage yards with a total of 1,649. Prior to Monday night’s action, Derrick Henry was the next-closest player with 1,281. Gaudy yardage totals are always impressive, but Barkley is among the league’s leaders in many important categories.

Obviously, Barkley has produced at an elite level and has not been simply carried by the Eagles’ terrific offensive line. Any running back will benefit from good blocking, but it is incumbent upon them to create extra production by running through contact and breaking tackles. Barkley has done so with aplomb while also contributing to the passing game with 257 receiving yards and 11 missed tackles forced as a part of the above total. Consider also that Hurts has scored eight touchdowns from the 1-yard line on quarterback sneaks, putting a dent in Barkley’s potential total.

Volume

Not only has Barkley produced, but he has done so while the Eagles have increased his workload.

Before its bye in Week 5, Philadelphia ran the ball roughly 41% of the time, which hovers right around the league average. After a Week 4 loss to Tampa Bay in which Barkley only accrued 10 carries, the team opted to change its philosophy and make him the focal point of its offense.

Since Week 6, which spans the Eagles’ seven-game winning streak, they have run the ball on 56.4% of their plays. The Lions are the only other team above 50% in that span. During that time frame, Barkley leads the NFL with 150 carries, but he’s done so with incredible efficiency: he averages 6.4 yards per carry and over 136 yards per game.

The Eagles also use motion at a relatively low rate (53.5%, 22nd-lowest), so they are essentially lining up and daring opponents to stop their running game. That being the foundation of their offense has also allowed Hurts to assume less responsibility, yet more efficiency, in their passing game. The effect of Barkley takes shape when looking at Hurts’ play-action performance.

During the team’s first four games, 22.4% of Hurts’ dropbacks utilized play action, but he earned a mediocre 62.3 passing grade. During the team’s winning streak, that volume has increased to 27.1%, while his 88.1 passing grade on those plays ranks fifth in the NFL. The threat of Barkley has allowed the team to avoid obvious dropback situations as much as possible.

Explosiveness

One of the strange statistical nuggets from the 2023 season is that Eagles running backs ranked 31st in the NFL in rushing grade despite the team placing third in run-blocking grade. They also ranked just 16th during the regular season in explosive runs of 10 or more yards with 34. Through 11 games, Barkley himself already has compiled 29, which leads all players.

These aren’t just runs that barely scrape the 10-yard mark, though. Barkley trails only Henry with 12 rushes of 20 or more yards. He also leads the NFL with five touchdowns of 20-plus yards, three of which have gone for at least 65 yards.

The Eagles did not have a single 20-plus-yard touchdown run last season, and eight teams have yet to score a 20-plus-yard rushing touchdown this season. Barkley is taking full advantage of the space he’s given by hitting home runs. Interestingly, all five of Barkley’s long touchdowns have come in the second half of games, which brings us to our final point.

Clutch

A great running back also doubles as a great closer. Whether a team is holding a lead or standing firm in a tight defensive game, the best backs get stronger as the game progresses.

This year, 42 running backs have garnered at least 20 carries in the fourth quarter of games this season. Barkley leads that group in rushing yards, first downs, touchdowns, yards per carry and rushing grade.

His five fourth-quarter touchdowns have all come in signature moments. Two of them arrived against New Orleans in a tight defensive game. Two of them iced their divisional matchup against Washington, putting the Eagles in first place. The final one came this past week as the exclamation point to his legendary performance against the Rams.

Considering the volume, efficiency and timeliness of Barkley’s performance so far this season, he should be squarely in the MVP conversation for the impact he has had on his entire offense and the Eagles’ ability to win games.