• The Chiefs and Lions are the favorites for a reason: The two teams have a combined 38% chance of winning Super Bowl 59, with neither having many weaknesses.
• Just how good are the Steelers?: Pittsburgh holds the No. 3 seed in the AFC, but its second-half schedule will reveal more about its overall quality.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated reading time: 15 minutes
For some, it’s never too early to check divisional and/or playoff standings in the NFL. But now that we’re officially midway through the season, it feels especially appropriate to start to take stock of the top-seven squads in each conference.
Some teams — like the Chiefs and Lions — are all but locks to secure a top-two seed in their league, while other division leaders are only up by a half-game. With a look ahead to the rest of the season, below is an examination of how dangerous each playoff team (ranked by existing seeding) appears in terms of its odds of going on a streak and/or winning Super Bowl 59.
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)
Danger Level: Very high
As long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are still together, this duo should always be considered the most formidable in football. The Chiefs haven’t looked utterly dominant — sitting just seventh in overall team PFF grade — but have a 40% chance to win the AFC and a 22% chance to claim their third straight Super Bowl — and for good reason.
Kansas City has made the requisite moves after suffering catastrophic injuries, adding DeAndre Hopkins at the trade deadline while bolstering its pass rush with Josh Uche. Plus, Isiah Pacheco should return from his leg injury in short order, which will bolster a rushing offense that ranks only 13th in EPA per play.
The scariest part of the 2024 Chiefs is that Mahomes hasn’t been a bona fide world-beater. Mahomes ranks only seventh in PFF passing grade thus far with only seven big-time throws, tied for ninth-fewest among qualifiers. It’s more logical to interpret Mahomes’ play as a reflection of the fact that the Chiefs are only reaching the tip of the iceberg — and they haven’t even lost yet. This very well may be the second time in three years that KC finishes with 14 or more wins.
2. Buffalo Bills (7-2)
Danger Level: Relatively high
It wouldn’t have been utterly shocking to see the Bills experience a lull in 2024, given their high rate of personnel turnover. Instead, Buffalo is the landslide favorite in the AFC East while ranking top-10 in both offensive and defensive EPA per play.
Josh Allen hasn’t been quite as elite as we’ve come to expect — his 78.1 overall grade is a far cry from his four straight years of a 90.0-plus grade — but he’s still a headache for any defense on any given week. James Cook has built on a solid sophomore year and has posted a top-15 rushing grade. Khalil Shakir (78.4 receiving grade) has proven he can be a viable, consistent option for Allen, and Amari Cooper has already turned heads.
Defensively, Buffalo has talent in multiple departments with players like Greg Rousseau, Christian Benford and even Von Miller. However, linebacker remains a bit of a hole, and more will be needed from other members of the team’s secondary.
The Bills' biggest question may be to what extent their defense can hold up. Buffalo got steamrolled in Baltimore in Week 4, which doesn’t bode well for the postseason. It’s also worth noting that the Bills have played the 27th-hardest schedule so far.
This team should be capable of at least getting to the Divisional round, but reaching the AFC Championship may be difficult — especially since Buffalo hasn’t done it since 2020.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Danger Level: Moderate
The Steelers sit fourth in overall team grade, and Pittsburgh’s defense has been one of the best in football. At the same time, this team doesn’t look like a legitimate contender.
Russell Wilson has infused new life under center by attacking down the field more, but his play under pressure (35.8 overall grade) and mobility are concerning. While Najee Harris has been one of the best running backs in football over the last few weeks, the team’s receiving corps is still underwhelming. George Pickens is the only Steelers wideout to have a receiving grade over 70.0.
Pittsburgh’s defensive line is arguably the best in the NFL, with position leaders T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward wreaking havoc every week. But, more is needed from Patrick Queen at linebacker (50.9 overall grade) and in secondary coverage, where no defensive back has posted a 70.0 coverage grade or better.
The Steelers defense will strike fear into any team come playoff time, but we may not know Pittsburgh's exact identity just yet. The Steelers have played the fourth-easiest schedule in football, with only solid wins coming against the Broncos and Chargers. A Week 10 date with the Commanders will be a good litmus test.
Ultimately, Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 regular season. If Wilson can maintain his level of play and new receiver Mike Williams can make a legitimate impact, this might be the team to end the curse. But if not, Pittsburgh may simply not have the elite quarterback play to compete with the leviathans of the conference.
4. Houston Texans (6-3)
Danger Level: Somewhat high
The Texans are 17th in offensive EPA per play, 12th in defensive EPA per play and haven’t been quite as dominant as expected so far. So, why rank them this high?
For one, Houston boasts some legitimately unbelievable talent. That starts with C.J. Stroud, who has largely avoided a sophomore slump. Stroud’s 75.1 overall grade isn’t quite as good as it was in his rookie season (83.2), but he still ranks top-10 in At/Beyond the Sticks Grade as well as Under Pressure grade. Factor in the NFL’s best receiver in Nico Collins, and the two have proven nearly unstoppable.
Defensively, the Texans have a dynamic edge-rushing tandem in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. Houston’s duo ranks top-three among edge rushers in pass-rush win percentage, as the two have combined for 76 pressures already. In the secondary, Derek Stingley Jr. hasn’t been marvelous in 2024 with a 61.8 overall grade, but he’s put his abilities on display prior — especially in the second half of 2023.
Houston will need better play from its offensive line, which was eviscerated in Week 9 and ranks only 19th in pass-blocking grade. Overall, the Texans’ Week 5 win against the Bills was a good harbinger, but significant tests loom against the Lions, Chiefs and Ravens in the second half.
5. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Danger Level: Very high
If the Ravens wind up as the AFC’s top wild-card team, they’ll be the squad that absolutely nobody wants to host. Baltimore ranks second in overall PFF grade and has won six of its last seven games, including beating the Bills, Commanders and Broncos.
Baltimore’s nucleus revolves around Lamar Jackson, who’s somehow found a way to level up in 2024. Jackson’s 91.7 overall grade is a career-best, as is his 90.8 passing mark. Combine his dual-threat ability with Derrick Henry — the NFL’s best running back through nine weeks — and the highest-graded receiving corps in the league, and no defensive coordinator will sleep the night before.
While the Ravens offense is a juggernaut, the defense hasn’t been as stout as anticipated in 2024, sitting 24th in EPA per play. Big plays have victimized the secondary, with the Ravens facing the most pass attempts over 20 yards. Still, there’s talent at every level with players like Kyle Van Noy, Nnamdi Madubuike, Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey.
Baltimore’s offensive line — where only two starters have posted an overall grade above 75.0 — and its secondary will remain key questions when dissecting each AFC contender. But with how efficiently this offense is playing, the Ravens are undoubtedly one of the best teams in football.
6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
Danger Level: Moderate
Jim Harbaugh has translated his collegiate success back to the pros, rendering the Chargers a playoff hopeful in only his first season.
Carrying over defensive coordinator Jesse Minter from Michigan has been a colossal boost: The Chargers rank first in EPA per play allowed and are yielding the second-lowest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks (75.0). Not only is Los Angeles’ defense playing well, but it has legitimate stars in Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa and Derwin James, alongside breakouts from Elijah Molden, Poona Ford and Kristian Fulton.
LA’s offense has been more modest, attempting to rely on a rushing-centric attack that, well, hasn’t run the ball that well (29th in team rushing grade). Still, Justin Herbert has been excellent as usual, ranking fifth in passing grade and slotting as the best passer on play action.
The bottom line is that the Chargers are playing well enough defensively to battle in a playoff game, but the offense — ranking 16th in EPA per play — may be the inhibitor. LA still lacks a truly dominant receiver, and J.K. Dobbins (65.2 rushing grade) hasn’t been spectacular. Harbaugh’s bunch would likely need to play a low-scoring game to have a chance.
7. Denver Broncos (5-4)
Danger Level: Relatively low
Like their AFC West rivals a seed above, the Broncos are a dominant defensive group with major questions on the other side of the ball.
Vance Joseph has done a phenomenal job coaching Denver’s D, with the Broncos ranking fourth in EPA per play and third in pressure percentage (40.1%). Denver has a certified star in Patrick Surtain II but has also experienced growth from Zach Allen, Jonathon Cooper, Riley Moss and many more. This might be the best-coached, least mistake-prone unit in football.
However, Sean Payton’s offense has experienced growing pains in Bo Nix’s first year. The No. 12 overall pick slots only 25th among qualifiers in overall grade, and the Broncos rank 28th in offensive EPA per play. Only three Broncos to play 200 or more snaps have attained a 70.0-plus overall grade, with two being offensive linemen.
Denver has generally overachieved in Nix’s first season, so even reaching the playoffs would be something to celebrate — especially given Payton’s initial woes out west. The Broncos would need their defense to be ridiculously strong and/or Nix to play at a much higher level to be competitive.
NFC
1. Detroit Lions (7-1)
Danger Level: Extremely high
The Lions are pretty comfortably a top-two team in football, and you could argue that they’re No. 1. Detroit is the highest-graded overall team (92.2) and is top-six in both offensive and defensive EPA per play.
The Lions offense has overcome its slight early-season lull to become a train barreling down the tracks. Nobody has run the ball better than Detroit, which ranks first in rushing EPA per play and fields two elite backs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The team’s passing attack has hit its stride, with Jared Goff ranking 11th in passing grade since Week 6. Detroit has weapons inside and out with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams returning from suspension and Sam LaPorta, plus maybe the best coordinator in the NFL via Ben Johnson.
On the other side, Aaron Glenn’s defense received a strong elevation with the team’s trade for Za’Darius Smith to replace Aidan Hutchinson for the rest of 2024; Smith joins a defensive line that ranks tied for second in pass-rushing grade. The back end of the Lions defense has become a no-fly zone, with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, the two highest-graded safeties in the NFL.
Fundamentally, Detroit doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses. The team’s 30% chance to win the NFC is 16% higher than the Eagles in second place, and that feels representative.
2. Washington Commanders (7-2)
Danger Level: Somewhat high
The Commanders lay claim to the best story in football this year, becoming the NFC version of the 2023 Houston Texans.
Jayden Daniels has been one of the best quarterbacks in football, tying for fifth in overall grade at the position and enjoying the best rookie QB season since Russell Wilson in 2012. Daniels’ emergence has propelled Washington to become the most efficient offense in football, as Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson Jr. have also provided explosives.
The foundational question regarding the Commanders lies on defense. Washington is 26th in EPA per play allowed and 31st in opponent success rate. Only Bobby Wagner (85.6 overall grade) has played at a premier level, with holes remaining throughout the secondary.
After Washington's trade for Marshon Lattimore, the team's defense is definitely in better shape, but its performance in the second half will be telling. For now, though, their hopes rest almost entirely upon Daniels to carry an offense that could still use more skill-position talent. That’s not a terrific long-term formula.
3. Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
Danger Level: Somewhat high
Raheem Morris and the Falcons have enjoyed the turnaround that most expected after their frenetic offseason. Atlanta has a two-game lead in the NFC South and has won five of its last six games, including sweeping the Buccaneers.
The Falcons have been effective on offense for much of the season, slotting seventh in EPA per play. Kirk Cousins has settled in post-Achilles tear, ranking eighth in passing grade from Week 4-onward. Bijan Robinson has terrorized defenses through both air and ground, recording a 90.6 rushing grade and 90.3 receiving grade. Plus, free agent signing Darnell Mooney has secured his best receiving grade (74.2) since 2021.
Yet, Atlanta’s defense has regressed a bit without Ryan Nielsen, slotting only 21st in EPA per play. Jessie Bates III remains a ballhawk center fielder, but the Falcons have lacked disruptive pass-rushers throughout the entire season. No Falcons defender has tallied more than 20 pressures.
The Falcons would have a shot to win a playoff game (or multiple) if their offense can play at a high level, but the team likely won’t be able to stymie opposing units very well — which innately limits Atlanta’s ceiling.
4. Arizona Cardinals (5-4)
Danger Level: Relatively low
The Cardinals went from potential frisky disruptors to actual playoff contenders in Jonathan Gannon’s second year. Doing that in spite of multiple injuries and a lack of defensive talent is certainly worth celebrating in and of itself.
Arizona’s offense remains compelling, ranking 12th in EPA per play. Kyler Murray is tied for ninth among qualifying quarterbacks in overall grade, looking like the superstar we’ve come to know. James Conner has kept on churning, leading the league in missed tackles forced. Trey McBride has maintained his strong play from last season, and Marvin Harrison Jr. (78.1 receiving grade) hasn’t even been utterly dominant just yet.
The qualms for Arizona originate with its defense. Trading for Baron Browning from Denver may help alleviate some of the pass-rushing struggles, where the Cardinals rank 29th in pressure percentage. Arizona is also 24th in coverage grade.
The Cardinals have already played the hardest schedule in the NFL thus far, securing impressive wins over the 49ers, Bears and Chargers. Conversely, Arizona has also lost to Buffalo, Detroit and Washington. It’ll be awfully difficult for Gannon’s group to fend off the 49ers to win this division, but if Arizona gets in, its offense will need to be the catalyst.
5. Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
Danger Level: Somewhat high
The initially sky-high Vikings have fallen back down to Earth a bit in the last few weeks, losing consecutive games to the Lions and Rams before rebounding against the Colts on Sunday Night Football. This team probably isn’t as good as the 5-0 version indicated, but it’s still one worth monitoring.
Minnesota’s defense has ravaged opposing quarterbacks for most of the year, ranking third in EPA per play and eighth in yards per play allowed. Jonathan Greenard (83.5 overall grade, 48 pressures) has paid immediate dividends as a high-profile signing, although the Vikings rank tied for 15th in coverage grade.
The Vikings field three offensive players with 80.0-plus overall grades (Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones and Brian O’Neill), and Sam Darnold (career-best 75.1 overall grade) has been better than anticipated. Kevin O’Connell remains one of the league’s premier play-callers, too.
Minnesota has enough at the offensive skill positions to compete in the NFC, but the team will likely go as far as Darnold’s play — and its defensive aptitude when not getting home with pressure — takes it.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)
Danger Level: High
The Eagles are fifth in overall team grade and have rolled to four straight wins. Uncertainty abounds about Nick Sirianni’s decision-making, but this roster is still among the most competitive in the NFL.
Jalen Hurts has overcome a lackluster start, posting an 89.5 overall grade in his last two games. Philly’s offense is loaded across the board with Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and an offensive line that ranks fifth in overall grade.
The Eagles haven’t been as formidable on defense in Vic Fangio’s first season, ranking 13th in EPA per play. Still, there have been some noticeable upgrades. Cooper DeJean, Zack Baun and Quinyon Mitchell have all provided instant sparks, and Darius Slay (72.2 coverage grade) has played more like his solid 2022 self after a let-down 2023.
The Eagles’ offensive core is one of the most frightening of any playoff team, with the ability to win in short-yardage situations or through deep passes. Philadelphia will need Hurts to avoid mistakes — his 4.4% turnover-worthy play rate is tied for the fifth-highest among qualifying QBs — and its defense to hold up. But, this is a team capable of making a run at the NFC Championship.
7. Green Bay Packers (6-3)
Danger Level: Relatively high
A dominant Lions win in Green Bay took some wind out of the Packers’ sails, but Green Bay is still one of the better teams in the entire NFL. The Packers are one of four teams to rank top-10 in both offensive and defensive EPA per play.
Josh Jacobs has thrived in his first year in the NFC North, posting an 86.9 rushing grade that ties for the second-highest in his career. Jordan Love has fallen prey to ill-advised mistakes on nearly a weekly basis, but his 71.5 passing grade still ranks 16th. Love has no shortage of viable pass-catchers, including Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft, though Green Bay is 31st in drop rate.
Jeff Hafley has improved a beleaguered Packer defense from a year ago, especially with his utilization of stunts: Green Bay has the second-highest stunt rate on passes. Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams have formed an elite safety duo, but Green Bay’s defensive line has underwhelmed for much of the season.
The Packers’ postseason hopes will largely depend on avoiding mistakes, which have continued to rear their ugly heads throughout the season. If Green Bay remains dialed in, the team could win the NFC despite being a wild-card team. But if not, the Packers could flame out early.
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