• Allen has often overcome a limited supporting cast: He has played MVP-caliber football for four straight seasons despite having an offensive supporting cast that has graded outside the top 10 in each season.
• A QB rushing threat like no other: If his league-leading 93.8 PFF rushing grade holds up, Allen will set a PFF record by the season's end — breaking his own record of 93.6 set in 2021.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
Josh Allen is playing at an otherworldly level, even by his standards. He has led the Buffalo Bills, who were supposed to regress this season, to at least 30 points in eight straight games, seven of them victories.
Allen is on pace to become the first quarterback in PFF history to earn a 90.0-plus overall grade in five straight seasons. Currently, he is tied at four for that record with Tom Brady, who did so in each season from 2015 to 2018.
So, what is it about Allen this year that makes his MVP case so compelling? The answers are as multifaceted as his dynamic play style.
1. A ‘Lesser' Supporting Cast
After the Bills traded star wideout Stefon Diggs to Houston, there was thought to be a void in the team's receiving corps. Players like Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and Curtis Samuel were the nominal headliners coming into the season. They also lost longtime center Mitch Morse in free agency and faced major questions about whether the more conservative approach they adopted down the stretch last season could work.
It turns out that Allen is used to carrying this type of supporting cast to success.
Bills‘ PFF Offensive Grades (Excluding QBs)
| 2024 | 76.9 (11th) |
| 2023 | 74.7 (11th) |
| 2022 | 72.8 (15th) |
| 2021 | 76.0 (T-14th) |
Allen has played MVP-caliber football for four straight seasons despite having an offensive supporting cast that has graded outside the top 10 in each season. For comparison’s sake, the Ravens, who boast Allen’s biggest challenger to the MVP award in Lamar Jackson, ranked sixth in Jackson’s MVP campaign last year and rank third this season.
Allen also has to produce at an extremely high level because his defense often forces him to, as we’ve seen over the past two weeks. The Bills are currently tied for 27th in the NFL in PFF defensive grade. Only two of their defensive starters boast a PFF overall grade above 70.0 through Week 15. Allen is consistently creating more production with less around him than any quarterback in the NFL.
2. Elite Play Through the Air, with Improved Ball Security
Allen's 33 big-time throws and 7.2% big-time throw rate lead the NFL. While that isn’t necessarily breaking news, he is doing so while running a career-low 2.5% turnover-worthy play rate. Over his past six games, he’s generated an incredible 15 big-time throws compared to just one turnover-worthy play.
There are only 10 other instances in PFF history where a quarterback posted at least a 7% big-time throw rate and a 2.5% turnover-worthy play rate or better. Among those seasons are two Aaron Rodgers MVP campaigns, Tom Brady’s 2020 Super Bowl run and incredible campaigns from players like Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger in their respective primes.
Allen continues to improve despite being in the midst of his seventh season. He’s also improved in 2024 as the year has progressed. Since a dismal Week 5 outing in Houston in which he completed just nine of his 30 passes, Allen sits inside the top five in PFF passing grade while leading the league in turnover-worthy play rate.
Allen is producing at an elite level through the air while also putting the ball in less danger.
3. Efficiency on the Ground
If his league-leading 93.8 PFF rushing grade holds up, Allen will set a PFF record by the season's end. Of course, he would be breaking his own record of 93.6, which he set in 2021.
If we remove kneel-downs, which account for eight of his 91 carries this season, Allen has rushed for 5.9 yards per run while picking up a first down or touchdown 54.2% of the time. Only Patrick Mahomes has converted at a higher rate among quarterbacks with at least 25 carries, and he has nearly 50 fewer carries than Allen.
Allen’s legs have also allowed him to essentially break the rules of year-to-year volatility that comes with quarterback grades when they are pressured. For the third time in four seasons, Allen leads the NFL in PFF rushing grade when under pressure. His abilities to escape the pocket, be a true dual threat and diagnose when to scramble are nearly identical to that of Lamar Jackson.
Josh Allen has had a legitimate MVP case in each of the past four seasons. He’s continued to improve to the point where he is nearly unstoppable. If he continues to play the way he has lately, he is likely to finally bring home an MVP award.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.