• Will Jayden Daniels hold up better under pressure? Daniels has been one of the NFL's best quarterbacks under duress but recorded only a 53.1 PFF overall grade under pressure against the Eagles in Week 11.
• Who wins when running inside zone, Chiefs or Texans? Kansas City's inside-zone game hasn't been effective, while Houston hasn't defended the look well all year.
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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, the niche, micro-level battles add an extra layer of nuance. That includes players or units battling head-to-head, or even defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 15’s focus on the Bills' use of extra offensive linemen (12 plays, 3.7 yards per play) and Packers receivers against press coverage (league-high 79.0 PFF receiving grade) were significant in determining which franchises were victorious. Now, let’s turn to Week 16.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are six matchups with a significant probability of determining winners this week.
Jayden Daniels under pressure vs. Eagles
One of the pivotal matchups enmeshed in the Week 16 slate is Eagles-Commanders, where Philadelphia puts its 10-game winning streak on the line and hopes to secure the NFC East crown. If the 9-5 Commanders want to avoid being eliminated from the division title race, they’ll need rookie sensation Jayden Daniels to play better under pressure than in Week 11.
Daniels has actually been fantastic when dealing with rushers in his face this year, as his 68.6 PFF overall grade ranks fifth among qualified quarterbacks. His legs have proven a clutch asset in those situations — his 91.0 PFF rushing grade slots third among quarterbacks under pressure — while he’s committed a turnover-worthy play on only 3.3% of attempts, tied for the ninth-lowest mark among quarterbacks under pressure.
What makes the Eagles' defense so stout is that it wins both up front and in the back end, with pressure a prominent feature. Philadelphia sits sixth in team pressure rate and fifth in hurry rate, as Milton Williams, Moro Ojomo, Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith have all compiled pass-rush win rates of 14.6% or better.
When these two teams squared off in Week 11, Philadelphia’s pressure hamstrung the rookie. Daniels went just 4-of-6 passing for 59 yards and a 53.1 PFF overall grade when pressured, which comprised 28.2% of his dropbacks. Compare that to a 75.9 PFF overall grade when not pressured, and the picture is painted of how the Eagles won decisively.
If Washington’s offensive line can withstand an Eagles flurry, then Daniels and his 12th-lowest allowed pressure rate may be able to make plays. But if the Birds can rattle Daniels yet again, the NFC East will likely belong to them.
Cooper Rush on quick passes vs. Buccaneers
Staying in the NFC, Sunday night’s matchup is stealthily important, as the Buccaneers have no room for error in leading the NFC South by one game. If Tampa Bay wants to stay hot, the defense needs to be careful against rushed throws from Cooper Rush.
Rush’s average 2.35-second time to throw is the second fastest of all qualified quarterbacks, and a staggering 57.9% of his dropbacks have included him releasing the ball in 2.5 seconds or less (also second). Interestingly, Rush hasn’t performed much better on fast throws — he’s recorded a 58.9 PFF passing grade in either split — but his clear strategy is to sling the ball around quickly.
With the second-highest passing blitz rate in football (50%), it’s not surprising to learn that the Buccaneers also hold the second-best pressure rate on quick passes. At the same time, Tampa Bay’s coverage has been better as the play extends. The Buccaneers rank 26th in team coverage grade on throws of under 2.5 seconds, juxtaposed to 10th on passes over that mark.
Assuming that Todd Bowles defaults to another blitz-heavy approach in Dallas, Rush might be able to get an edge, given his quick trigger. However, implementing simulated pressures and letting Rush sit in the pocket might actually make the quarterback more uncomfortable. Bowles’ blitz patterns will be fascinating to follow in primetime.
Steelers‘ tight ends vs. Ravens’ man coverage
For the second straight week, the Steelers will battle another impressive team on the road without star receiver George Pickens. If Pittsburgh wants its offense to fare better than it did in Week 15, the team’s tight ends will need to have an elevated role.
This year, Pat Freiermuth has excelled against man coverage, as his 75.1 PFF receiving grade against man ranks sixth among qualifying tight ends. Yet, he hasn’t been quite as effective versus zone, generating only a 65.2 PFF receiving grade. While Freiermuth is clearly the Steelers’ top receiving tight end, 6-foot-7 Darnell Washington has also been solid against man, catching three of four targets to pair with a 68.4 PFF receiving grade.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have utilized Cover 1 on 22.6% of snaps — their second-most frequent coverage — and have the personnel to stifle tight ends. Working more inside this year, Marlon Humphrey has been an elite cover cornerback, having accrued the lowest passer rating allowed (53.0) and yards per snap mark (0.59) of all qualified slot defenders. Additionally, Ar’Darius Washington and Kyle Hamilton both rank in the top 30 among coverage defenders in man coverage grade. Even then, the Ravens have allowed 79 catches for 869 yards to tight ends in 2024, each bottom-10 marks.
Will Washington (two catches for 42 yards on three targets in Week 11) find space yet again? Or will the Ravens take away some of the few remaining targets for Russell Wilson? If Baltimore forces the Steelers into a run-heavy approach, the home team could get right back into the AFC North race.
Chiefs’ inside zone rushing vs. Texans
The first of two Saturday games offers a glimpse into a potential playoff preview between Houston and Kansas City. Even with Patrick Mahomes battling through an ankle injury, the Chiefs may want to mitigate the Texans’ star edge defenders with the run game — a facet that’s been a mixed bag in 2024.
The Chiefs have called inside zone on 32% of their run plays, which is tied for the second-highest clip in the league. The problem, though, is that frequency hasn’t translated to success. Kansas City ranks only 30th in inside-zone success rate and ties for 17th in yards per play.
On the other side of the line of scrimmage, the Texans have performed like a middling defense against inside zone. Houston ranks 20th in yards per play permitted on inside zone (4.2) and place 19th in EPA per play, yet the defense has given up only five explosive runs on inside zone. Coincidentally, that’s the same number the Chiefs have attained this year.
Will Andy Reid be able to establish the run up the middle with his elite interior offensive line, helping offset potential pressure from Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.? Or will the Texans force the Chiefs into obvious passing situations and pin their ears back? In potentially a low-scoring battle, Kansas City’s ground success will be a large tell.
Jared Goff’s over-the-middle passing vs. Bears
The Lions will look to overcome their first loss since Week 2, in addition to a spate of injuries, when they take on the Bears in Week 16. For Detroit’s offense to find its usual flow state, the team will need Jared Goff to excel over the middle — but the Bears may be able to sway that.
This season, Goff leads the NFL in completions over the middle of the field and ranks second in middle-of-field attempts, having compiled an 85.3 PFF passing grade (14th among qualifiers). It’s no shocker that Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks 12th in PFF receiving grade (90.5) and second in targets and catches in that zone, too.
However, the Bears maintain the ninth-best team coverage grade on passes over the middle. Kyler Gordon’s 81.9 PFF coverage grade over the middle of the field ranks 11th among qualified defenders, but no other Chicago defender is within the top 50. Likewise, the Bears rank only 19th in EPA per play and 16th in success rate when opposing offenses target between the numbers.
Can Goff and St. Brown get into their usual rhythm, helping offset the loss of David Montgomery in the run game? Or can Gordon and Chicago’s underperforming linebackers clog the middle and force perimeter passes? If the Bears want to finally snap their seemingly endless losing streak, they’ll need to deter Goff from finding his comfort zone (literally).
Seahawks‘ run defense vs. Vikings
One of the few marquee games during Sunday’s viewing window is Vikings-Seahawks, which may prove to be a final sprint for Seattle in the race for a playoff spot. In a matchup that favors Minnesota in multiple categories, the Seahawks will need to control the ground game to have a legitimate chance.
Seattle’s defense has displayed signs of improvement in Year 1 under Mike Macdonald, slotting 11th in EPA per play this season and 12th in success rate since Week 8. One area of struggle all year has been run defense. The Seahawks are 25th in average yards after contact per carry, 27th in yards before contact per carry and tied for 26th in explosive run rate allowed.
Conversely, the run game has been one of the few low points in a generally productive Vikings offense. Minnesota sits 27th in rushing yards after contact per carry, tied for 18th in yards before contact per attempt and 19th in explosive run rate. This head-to-head matchup is almost like looking in a mirror.
The good news for Seattle is that it does have highly graded run defenders in Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love, who both slot in the top 19 among qualifiers. Will Witherspoon and Love help crash down to slow Aaron Jones, or will Kevin O’Connell be able to establish balance on offense? Seattle must contain Minnesota’s offense as much as possible in a disadvantageous matchup for its own injured offense.
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