2023 NFL Playoff, Super Bowl probabilities for all 32 teams

2W99W38 Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half of an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Monday, Dec. 25, 2023. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

• Here come the Buffalo Bills: The Bills will win the AFC East with a win vs. the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

• The Los Angeles Rams are making a push: The Rams are projected to go to the Super Bowl 7% of the time.

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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Team Strength of schedule remaining (1st is hardest) Projected win total Chance to make playoffs (%) Chance to win Super Bowl (%)
Baltimore Ravens 16 13.8 100.0 29.5
San Francisco 49ers 15 12.7 100.0 21.8
Kansas City Chiefs 19 10.8 100.0 6.4
Buffalo Bills 3 10.6 94.7 11.3
Philadelphia Eagles 25 11.7 100.0 6.4
Dallas Cowboys 30 11.8 100.0 7.4
Miami Dolphins 5 11.4 100.0 4.5
Detroit Lions 23 11.7 100.0 3.9
Cleveland Browns 9 11.5 100.0 1.6
Los Angeles Rams 2 9.3 100.0 3.1
Cincinnati Bengals 13 8.5 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh Steelers 1 9.2 28.1 0.2
Denver Broncos 12 8.4 0.0 0.0
Green Bay Packers 20 8.6 64.1 0.7
New Orleans Saints 29 8.6 30.9 0.4
Seattle Seahawks 31 8.6 25.7 0.3
Chicago Bears 10 7.4 0.0 0.0
Las Vegas Raiders 17 7.6 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville Jaguars 28 9.6 77.1 0.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32 8.6 63.9 0.8
Minnesota Vikings 6 7.3 2.8 0.0
Indianapolis Colts 27 9.5 51.2 0.4
New York Jets 24 6.5 0.0 0.0
Houston Texans 14 9.5 48.9 0.5
Los Angeles Chargers 4 5.2 0.0 0.0
Atlanta Falcons 11 7.4 12.6 0.1
New England Patriots 26 4.5 0.0 0.0
New York Giants 7 5.3 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Titans 21 5.4 0.0 0.0
Washington Commanders 8 4.2 0.0 0.0
Arizona Cardinals 18 4.4 0.0 0.0
Carolina Panthers 22 2.4 0.0 0.0

Baltimore Ravens: 30% to win Super Bowl & 100% to make playoffs

  • The Ravens have clinched the AFC North and the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
  • They are projected to go to the Super Bowl 50% of the time.
  • Baltimore has played the 18th-hardest schedule to date.

San Francisco 49ers: 21% to win Super Bowl & 100% to make playoffs

  • The 49ers have clinched NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
  • They are projected to go to the Super Bowl 45% of the time.
  • They have played the 13th-easiest schedule to date.

Buffalo Bills: 11% to win Super Bowl & 95% to make playoffs

  • The Bills will win the AFC East with a win vs. the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.
  • Buffalo has played the seventh-easiest schedule to date.
  • They are projected to go to the Super Bowl 19% of the time.

Dallas Cowboys: 7% to win Super Bowl & 100% to make playoffs

Philadelphia Eagles: 7% to win Super Bowl & 100% to make playoffs

Kansas City Chiefs: 7% to win Super Bowl & 100% to make playoffs

  • Kansas City is projected to go to the Super Bowl 13% of the time.
  • The Chiefs have played the 13th-hardest schedule to date.
  • They are the third-ranked team in the PFF Power Rankings.

Miami Dolphins: 4% to win Super Bowl & 100% to make playoffs

  • The Dolphins clinch AFC East with a win vs. the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
  • They have played the sixth-easiest schedule to date.
  • They are projected to go to the Super Bowl 9% of the time

Detroit Lions: 4% to win Super Bowl & 100% to make playoffs

  • The Lions have played the 11th-hardest schedule to date.
  • They are projected to go to the Super Bowl 10% of the time.
  • They are projected to win 11.7 games.

Los Angeles Rams: 3% to win Super Bowl and 100% to make playoffs

  • The Rams have played the 15th-hardest schedule to date.
  • They are projected to go to the Super Bowl 7% of the time.
  • They are projected to win 9.3 games.
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