• Mahomes out in front: Nothing much changed for Patrick Mahomes, who didn’t have an outstanding game but still comfortably beat the Seattle Seahawks and produced a play for the highlight reel.
• Hurts out of the race? Due to his unfortunate injury, it looks like Jalen Hurts is almost out of the race. He was always trailing Mahomes in efficiency stats, but now he will also finish the season with a significant gap in volume stats.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Week 16 did little to shake up the 2022 NFL MVP race — it’s still between Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts.
So, how do the odds stack up going into Week 17?
Every week throughout the season, we will rank quarterbacks by their estimated MVP chances. These chances are based on simulating the remaining season and looking at individual efficiency stats and team success. The full methodology can be found in our initial version of this year’s MVP rankings.
2022 NFL MVP Favorites
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Week 16 stats: 70.9 PFF grade | 0.02 EPA per play
Season to date: 91.3 PFF grade | 0.25 EPA per play
Nothing much changed for Mahomes, who didn’t have an outstanding game but still comfortably beat the Seattle Seahawks and produced a play for the highlight reel. It’s still his award to lose with two games to play, as the odds imply. However, we are not as bullish on him as the market — the value of betting on him is gone by now.
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QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Week 16 stats: 58.6 PFF grade | 0.05 EPA per play
Season to date: 90.4 PFF grade | 0.20 EPA per play
Many started to discount Allen from the MVP conversation, but a strong second half kept him alive. The path for Allen to win the MVP only goes through a strong performance against the Bengals in prime time next week.
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QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Week 16 stats: missed game due to injury
Season to date: 88.6 PFF grade | 0.15 EPA per play
Due to his unfortunate injury, it looks like Jalen Hurts is almost out of the race. He was always trailing Mahomes in efficiency stats, but now he will also finish the season with a significant gap in volume stats. His path to the prize is Mahomes struggling in the next two games and the Bills-Bengals game next Monday being a low-score game with either defense clinching the win.
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QB JOE BURROW, CINCINNATI BENGALS
Week 16 stats: 91.6 PFF grade | 0.04 EPA per play
Season to date: 90.8 PFF grade | 0.14 EPA per play
During the first half, it looked like Burrow was making serious ground in the race, as the Patriots just couldn’t stop the Bengals offense. However, Cincinnati couldn’t score at all in the second half, and Burrow threw two interceptions, both of which seemed to be a miscommunication with his receivers. He remains in the conversation because the Patriots couldn’t finish the comeback on the last drive, but he definitely saw an opportunity slip away on Sunday.
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Defense adjustments
Our rankings also adjust for defenses faced. Quarterbacks who face easier defenses are more likely to put up stats that will eventually help win them the MVP award. We will update our pass-defense rankings throughout the season.
Using these rankings, this is the past strength of schedule of opposing passing defenses for quarterbacks:
This is the future strength of schedule of opposing passing defenses:
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