• Patrick Mahomes is the early favorite to win the NFL's MVP award: The star QB won the award last year and may even build a stronger case to win it again this season.
• Joe Burrow could vie for this year's award: If the Cincinnati Bengals‘ continued investment in the offensive line can finally help Burrow stay on his feet, he could immediately propel himself even closer to the top of these rankings.
• New weapons could vault Lamar Jackson: Along with Mark Andrews (who is questionable for Week 1), the new receiving room — which also features some nice depth with Nelson Agholor and Devin Duvernay — could be a top-10 receiving room for the first time in Jackson’s career. If the injury bug stays away from Baltimore this time around, Jackson could finally stay in the MVP conversation for the whole season for the first time since unanimously winning it in 2019.
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
While winning the Lombardi trophy is every NFL player's ultimate goal, the MVP award also plays a significant role during the upcoming 2023 NFL season, which is especially true for fan discussion as well as the betting market. Three years ago, we created a model to forecast the MVP race by simulating each quarterback’s season and using simulated end-of-season stats to accurately predict the MVP voting in each simulation. In fact, it’s fairly straightforward to predict the MVP if you know each quarterback’s passing efficiency as well as the win-loss column of all teams. Unless there is a quarterback with an overwhelming number of wins (15 or more), the MVP usually goes to the most efficient quarterback of the season. Last season, this was Patrick Mahomes.
Every week throughout the season we will rank quarterbacks by their estimated MVP chances. These chances are based on simulating the remaining season and looking at individual efficiency stats as well as team success. The full methodology can be found in our initial version of last year’s MVP rankings.
The Favorites
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes went into last season as our MVP favorite and as the reigning MVP, this certainly hasn’t changed. If anything, he only made the margin between him and the field larger. Mahomes is the league's best quarterback and his team is supposed to be the best team in the league, wrapping up homefield advantage in the AFC in 19% of our simulations. It’s not a coincidence that his estimated MVP chances are in a similar range. If the Chiefs wrap up the first seed and Mahomes has what we would call an ordinary season by his standards, it’s his award to lose.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Is this Allen and the Bills’ year? That’s what we all thought last year, and it looked very good for the first few weeks of the season before Allen suffered an elbow injury and the Bills suffered a lot of injuries that messed with their season. Teams don’t necessarily have their best years when everybody expects it from them. With the Dolphins and Jets loading up, the Bills are flying a little bit under the radar this offseason, even though they are still the team to beat in the AFC.
During the preseason, the Bills played 12 personnel more than 25% of the time. Last year, the Bills used that personnel group 6% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the league. Maybe drafting Dalton Kincaid and the scheme change that follows is what Allen needs to finally surpass Mahomes?
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Last season, Burrow developed from a quarterback with just a lucky playoff run to an actually good quarterback. Add the weapons the Bengals feature on offense and you have a perennial MVP contender. This year shapes up to be no different, as the Bengals addressed the weakest link on their offensive line by signing Orlando Brown Jr.
Over the last two years, the Bengals offense ranks second behind only the Chiefs in EPA per pass play conditioned on not getting sacked but “only” sixth overall. If their continued investment in the offensive line can finally help Burrow stay on his feet, he could immediately propel himself even closer to the top of these rankings
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Whenever Herbert had Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both healthy on the field, he was already producing at an MVP level over the last two years. The path to an MVP season for Herbert can only go through these two staying healthy and Quentin Johnston already playing well as a rookie receiver. And, of course, new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is supposed to mix those ingredients into one of the best offenses in the league. That’s a tall ask for a franchise as cursed as the Chargers.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts was in the top three of the MVP race for most of last year and even led the market odds at some point (even though we thought Patrick Mahomes was leading the race all the way from Week 10 on). It’s unrealistic that the Eagles can imitate the season they had last year, but with his offensive line and his three most important weapons on offense — A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert — staying constant, we would expect Hurts to be in the mix for another year.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
The last two seasons have been forgettable for Jackson and the Ravens. He only played 12 games in both seasons and the Ravens missed the playoffs altogether in 2021 and ultimately weren’t competitive enough on offense late in the season last year despite ending up in the playoffs. This year is supposed to be different. The Ravens basically start a whole new trio of wide receivers in Rashod Bateman (who was injured most of last year), Odell Beckham Jr. and this year’s first-round pick Zay Flowers. Along with Mark Andrews (who is questionable for Week 1), the new receiving room — which also features some nice depth with Nelson Agholor and Devin Duvernay — could be a top-10 receiving room for the first time in Jackson’s career. If the injury bug stays away from Baltimore this time around, Jackson could finally stay in the MVP conversation for the whole season for the first time since unanimously winning it in 2019.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have one of the NFL's most complete rosters and should be able to compete with the Eagles a little bit more than last season. Their defense can keep them in any game, and Dak has an inarguably better set of weapons at his disposal this year. He gets back Michael Gallup from injury and the Cowboys added Brandin Cooks, who turns 30 years old later this month and won’t be the dominant self he was back in 2017 or 2018 when he was part of two Super Bowl squads. However, he only needs to be the No. 3 option and an occasional deep threat who creates space for CeeDee Lamb, and he should be able to provide just that. Consequently, Prescott has a chance to finally put up a consistent and healthy season.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Over the back half of last year’s season, results finally followed his good play, so Lawrence is more than just a dark horse at this point. If things work out for them, the Jaguars might clinch their division earlier than any other team in the NFL. If the combination of Lawrence’s throwing prowess and the re-instated Calvin Ridley turns out to be fruitful, expect Lawrence to stay in these rankings.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Honestly, I expected Rodgers to be higher on this list, but then again he is turning 40 years old this December, so it’s reasonable to pump the brakes on expectations a bit. The market currently has the Jets only as the third-best team in the AFC East, so that’s an obstacle Rodgers has to overcome to seriously move into the MVP conversation. However, Rodgers is definitely a candidate who could climb into the top five of our rankings pretty quickly.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Is it possible? One would think it’s not, but the Lions are favored to win their division, had a top-five offense last year and are supposed to play a fairly easy schedule of pass defenses. In a potentially weak NFC, Goff would need to see the two NFC East powerhouses struggle and have his Lions capitalize on it with a first seed and home-field advantage. The latter happens in almost 10% of our simulations. Nevertheless, there is a clear gap between Goff and the other nine quarterbacks on this list. Goff made the list to round up the top 10, but he could probably be replaced with any other mediocre quarterback on a potentially good team such as Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy or Derek Carr.
The remaining contestants
All of these quarterbacks have a very small chance of entering the MVP race. However, there is still an estimated 24% chance that one of them will shock the world and win the trophy against all odds.
Defense adjustments
Just like last year, our rankings also adjust for defenses faced. Quarterbacks who face easier defenses are more likely to put up stats that will eventually help win them the MVP award. We will update our pass-defense rankings throughout the season. As of now, the rankings are based on priors coming from last year’s performance and roster strength. (Note that negative numbers indicate better defenses in this chart.
This is the future strength of schedule of opposing passing defenses. Teams that play against easier pass defenses are found at the right (and top):
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