• A few names in the early race: Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are still among the favorites — as expected — but Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy have also stormed into the race, having recorded extraordinarily high numbers in our efficiency stats.
• Allen the favorite: Josh Allen was questioned after the Bills' Week 1 home loss, but since then, he has proven that these concerns were unnecessary. Allen enters Week 6 with an 86.1 passing grade, fourth at the position, and he's earned an 80.0-plus overall grade in each of his last four games.
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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
A lot has happened in the 2023 NFL MVP race over the first five weeks of the season.
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are still among the favorites — as expected — but Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy have also stormed into the race, having recorded extraordinarily high efficiency stats.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow has probably exited the race for good this year due to the calf injury that caused him to produce near-league-worst efficiency over the first four weeks.
Every week, we will rank quarterbacks by their estimated MVP chances. These chances are based on simulating the remaining season and looking at individual efficiency stats as well as team success. The full methodology can be found in our initial version of last year’s MVP rankings.
2023 NFL MVP Favorites
After five weeks of play, the model finds eight quarterbacks with a chance greater than 1%.
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Week 5 stats: 91.5 PFF grade, 0.32 EPA per play
Season to date: 89.0 PFF grade, 0.30 EPA per play
Josh Allen was questioned after the Bills' Week 1 home loss, but since then, he has proven that these concerns were unnecessary. Allen enters Week 6 with an 86.1 passing grade, fourth at the position, and he's earned an 80.0-plus overall grade in each of his last four games.
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Week 5 stats: 84.1 PFF grade, 0.40 EPA per play
Season to date: 85.7 PFF grade, 0.24 EPA per play
With the exception of a few drives against the New York Jets, Patrick Mahomes has played as well as ever, and his efficiency stats are very similar to the ones he produced during his MVP season last year.
The only reason he isn’t the clear favorite right now is that other quarterbacks have even better efficiency stats.
QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Week 5 stats: Bye week
Season to date: 76.3 PFF grade, 0.18 EPA per play
Herbert quietly ranks fifth in EPA per play among quarterbacks after five weeks. However, he has a difficult path to the MVP Award, as the Chiefs are already two ahead in the win column.
QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Week 5 stats: 85.3 PFF grade, 0.70 EPA per play
Season to date: 78.4 PFF grade, 0.46 EPA per play
Brock Purdy’s efficiency stats lead the league by a wide margin, and he plays on the NFL's best team. This makes him a natural candidate for the MVP award.
That said, it's difficult to forecast his chances, as it’s unclear how much the voters will weigh his supporting cast when figuring out his value to the San Francisco 49ers.
I don’t think one can argue that he is (or will be) more valuable than the three quarterbacks above, but note that this piece intends to project a player's chances of winning the MVP and not to identify those who should win it.
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Week 5 stats: 56.5 PFF grade, 0.02 EPA per play
Season to date: 84.0 PFF grade, 0.29 EPA per play
Just like Purdy, Tagovailoa pulled toward the front of the MVP race due to his simply unreal efficiency stats. Those numbers cooled off over the last two weeks, but he is still essentially tied with Allen for the second-best EPA per play.
With the weapons he has, Tua could very well win the award. But should he? Well, Given that his team can generate 524 yards of offense on the same day he posts a 56.5 PFF grade and throws two interceptions, the answer is probably no.
Defense adjustments
Our rankings also adjust for defenses faced. Quarterbacks who face easier defenses are more likely to put up stats that will eventually help win them the MVP award. We will update our pass-defense rankings throughout the season.
Using these rankings, this is the past strength of schedule of opposing passing defenses for quarterbacks:
This is the future strength of schedule of opposing passing defenses:
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