• Elite 49ers pass rusher faces a favorable matchup: Edge rusher Nick Bosa should thrive in a matchup with struggling Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor.

• Point spread is moving: The 49ers opened as a one-and-a-half-point favorite, but the line has now moved them to a two-point favorite.

• Dig into the numbers for yourself: PFF's Premium Stats is the most in-depth collection of NFL and NCAA player performance data. Subscribe today to get full access!

Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

It all comes down to this final matchup between the best the AFC and NFC have to offer. The Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers are set to square off to crown a new Super Bowl champion. Kickoff is less than a week away.

Here is the first look at Super Bowl LVIII.

Highest-Graded Players

San Francisco 49ers

OT Trent Williams: 92.0

The 13-year veteran is still setting the standard at the tackle position, producing his fourth straight season of surpassing a 90.0-plus PFF grade. Williams sets the tone in the Niners' zone-heavy scheme, particularly on outside zone runs, where he has earned the league’s highest run-blocking grade (94.5), powered by an impressive 26% impact block rate.

EDGE Nick Bosa: 92.6

The edge rusher has made a career of terrorizing opposing passers, and 2023 saw him at possibly his best. He is sitting on the highest pass-rushing grade of his career (92.6). While Bosa’s production may seem down from a sack perspective, he’s actually generating pressure and winning his matchups at career-high rates, piling up 110 quarterback pressures and posting a 22.3% pass-rush win rate through the postseason.

Kansas City Chiefs

QB Patrick Mahomes: 92.0

Mahomes’ 92.5 PFF grade so far this postseason marks the highest of his six playoff appearances. In the regular season, he produced a respectable 81.1 passing grade. The Chiefs signal-caller paces all passers this postseason in passing grade (90.0), standing as the only quarterback to surrender no turnover-worthy plays across 40 or more dropbacks.

DI Chris Jones: 88.4

The disruptive interior pass rusher was a force to be reckoned with this season. Jones has piled up 85 quarterback pressures through the postseason — one shy of tying the league lead at the position — including 15 PFF sacks, the most by an interior defender. That level of play also earned him the highest pass-rushing productivity rate (8.8) among 115 qualifying interior defenders.

Matchups to Watch

WR vs. CB: Deebo Samuel vs. Trent McDuffie

After Samuel’s huge outing in the NFC Championship game, he will likely garner the attention of PFF second-team All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie, especially in the slot.

The Niners dynamic weapon has been the most difficult player to bring to the ground this postseason, having forced 0.62 missed tackles per touch, the highest rate by any player with at least five touches. Samuel is often deployed from the slot to take advantage of this, where he has earned PFF’s 10th-highest receiving grade (83.6).

McDuffie has been equally as impressive at locking down the slot, producing the league’s highest coverage (89.5) when lined up inside. That grade is partially a credit to his aggressive and sound approach to tackling, having totaled just three missed tackles all season, the last coming in Week 9.

OL vs. DL: Jawaan Taylor vs. Nick Bosa

The Niners will undoubtedly look to take advantage of this trench matchup, pitting the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year against the struggling Chiefs right tackle. Taylor has allowed the sixth-most pressures (54) among offensive linemen through the postseason, for a 6.8% pressure rate. He owns just a 41.0 overall grade this postseason, ranking 27th out of 28 qualifying tackles.

Edge rushers like Bosa feed upon those types of matchups. Bosa’s 18.7% pash-rush win rate so far this postseason ranks tied for the second among edge rushers, and it's the highest mark of his playoff career.

Big Questions

PFF All-Pro Joe Thuney’s injury status

After being unable to suit up for the AFC Championship game due to injury, Joe Thuney (pectoral) is again unlikely to take the field for Super Bowl 58. That would pave the way for Nick Allegretti to make his second start of the postseason. He allowed four pressures against the Ravens, including a sack to Justin Madubuike. Given the Niners' depth at pass rusher, Thuney’s potential absence could prove costly.

Brock Purdy playoff consistency

Purdy, while he put together an incredible regular season, has been inconsistent during the playoffs. The second-year quarterback has generated a 59.0 passing grade across two games, due in part to some careless throws, and a 3.8% turnover-worthy play rate. That could pose a problem against a Chiefs defense that forced three takeaways against the Ravens.

Line Movement/Betting Trends

The spread for this matchup opened with the 49ers as a one-and-a-half-point favorite, but this line has now moved to two points. According to PFF Greenline, that point spread presents San Francisco with a 55.0% cover probability.

Trends

• Kansas City is 3-1 against the spread at Allegiant Stadium (vs. Raiders), the site of Super Bowl 58
• Kansas City is 4-0 against the spread as underdogs this season
• San Francisco possesses a 5-4-1 record against the spread as a seven-point favorite or less, yet the team is 3-0 against the spread when favored by three points or fewer
• San Francisco is 1-4 against the spread since Christmas
• Kansas City is 5-1 against the spread since Christmas