NFL Super Wild Card Weekend: Why Dak Prescott vs. Jordan Love is the best quarterback duel of the week

• Dak Prescott performing at an elite level: Prescott has played at an elite level after a tumultuous 2022. He's currently second in the NFL in PFF passing grade as an improved receiving corps has allowed him to complete more downfield passes.

• Jordan Love breaks out in second half: Love has dramatically improved over his last 10 games, posting a 90.9 PFF passing grade. His improved understanding of Green Bay's offense and newfound patience have turned him into an explosive playmaker.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

With all due respect to the incredible storyline of Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit for the first time, there is no better quarterback duel this week than the one taking place in Dallas.

The Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and Green Bay Packers‘ Jordan Love have endured struggles, and each engineered incredible turnarounds on their way to the postseason. They arguably are the two hottest quarterbacks in the league, so we’ll examine their recent efforts here in anticipation of their huge matchup.

Starting with Prescott, we documented earlier in the season that the addition of more athletic playmakers has created wider downfield windows for him to throw into.

That success has continued with Prescott near the top of the leaderboard in a ton of statistical categories.

Dak Prescott 2023 Passing Metrics:

Prescott has had an elite 2023 after a troublesome 2022 where he ranked outside of the top 20 in several categories, including passing grade.

It sounds simple, but there isn’t one specific facet of Prescott’s game that has spearheaded his performance. He’s simply dropping back and throwing the football in better spots.

Some of the most stable metrics in evaluating quarterback performance include clean pocket grade and non-play action grade. While Prescott has improved under pressure, his production in more stable categories has driven his success.

Dak Prescott Passing Metrics 2022 vs. 2023:

All of those 2022 figures ranked outside the top 20 in the NFL. He ranks in the top eight in all of those metrics in 2023, including the top mark in non-play action passing grade.

An interesting part of the game this week is how the Packers will handle Prescott’s ability to throw the seams against their defense, which leans heavily into single-high coverages.

Only Baker Mayfield has thrown and completed more seam routes than Dak Prescott this season. Prescott, though, leads the NFL with nine big-time throws on seam routes and carries an elite 95.9 PFF passing grade in such situations. This is a major reason that Prescott also leads the NFL with a 90.4 PFF passing grade against single-high looks.

Meanwhile, despite their heavy usage of single-high safety defense, the Packers rank 28th in PFF coverage grade when using them. More specifically, they rank dead last with a 28.1 PFF coverage grade against seam routes.

Expect Prescott and the Cowboys to stress Green Bay’s defense down the middle of the field as they have done to teams all season.

In the opposite corner, we have Jordan Love, who has improved in-season as much as any player in the NFL. A look at some of his splits shows just how dramatic that turnaround has been.

Jordan Love Passing Metrics:

Love owns the second-best passing grade in the NFL since Week 9, just a sliver behind Brock Purdy. He also trails only Dak Prescott in big-time throws.

Two things stand at the heart of Love’s improvement, his play-action effectiveness and willingness to throw into intermediate windows.

Since Week 9, Love owns a 92.9 PFF play-action passing grade. That trails only Brock Purdy and is nearly a 40-point improvement from his play-action performance over his first seven games.

The foundation of Matt Lafleur’s offense, much like Sean McVay’s, is the running game and its core play-action concepts that flood zone coverages. Oftentimes, these concepts put intermediate defenders in conflict, which brings us to Love’s next phase of improvement.

While Love has certainly improved his deep ball accuracy, that success stems from his increased willingness to take what the defense gives him. He would often force deep shots into tight coverage as opposed to throwing to open receivers within the second level of the defense.

Since Week 9, Love leads the NFL with a 92.3 intermediate (10-19 yards) PFF passing grade. His tape is littered with completions to crossers, deep curls and out routes into zone windows behind linebackers and in front of safeties.

As a result, many of his league-leading 18 big-time deep throws in that span come from his ability to take vertical shots when the defense gives him the proper look. Teams begin to step closer to the line of scrimmage or take false steps to intermediate routes. Love has a far better feel for making defensive backs pay for their mistakes as opposed to trying to use his arm strength to beat them.

While the Cowboys own the fifth-best PFF play action coverage grade in the NFL, they have given up the second-most touchdowns and the 10th-highest EPA per play against play action passes.

Of greater importance will be the Cowboys' ability to stop Love in the intermediate game. For the season, Dallas ranks 29th in the NFL in intermediate coverage grade. They’ve also allowed the second-most yards per reception and sixth-most explosive plays in the intermediate range.

Dak Prescott and Jordan Love have both engineered fascinating turnarounds this season and enter their postseason blazing hot. Both have opportunities to exploit weaknesses in the opposing defenses. Of course, the icing on the cake is that we will see Mike McCarthy calling plays against Matt LaFleur,

If their quarterbacks continue to play the way they have recently, we should see a tremendous duel in Dallas.