NFL Week 13 Playoff Picture: Denver Broncos' playoff hopes hinge on a game against Houston Texans

• Eagles out in front in the NFC: The Philadelphia Eagles have an 81% chance of securing the top seed in the NFC, according to PFF's model.

• A massive week for the Broncos: The Denver Broncos have a 64% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 13 win against the Houston Texans, but their chances will fall to just 21% with a loss.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The playoff picture ahead of Week 13

Current AFC playoff standings

Current NFC playoff standings

If these standings held up, we would welcome three new AFC teams (Steelers, Browns and Colts) as well as two new NFC teams (Lions and Falcons) to the playoffs.

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The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.

AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

NFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 13

Team	Chances with win	Chances with loss	Leverage
Denver Broncos	64%	21%	43%
Seattle Seahawks	74%	37%	37%
Houston Texans	54%	18%	36%
Indianapolis Colts	58%	25%	33%
New Orleans Saints	67%	35%	32%
Green Bay Packers	63%	37%	26%

Playoff scenarios

Home-field advantage

Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.

AFC	%	NFC	%
Kansas City Chiefs	40%	Philadelphia Eagles	81%
Baltimore Ravens	28%	San Francisco 49ers	14%
Jacksonville Jaguars	15%	Dallas Cowboys	4%
Miami Dolphins	13%	Detroit Lions	1%

Two wild cards for the same division

With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.

As of now, the AFC North has the best chances to pull it off, even though the Cincinnati Bengals’ chances took a major hit with Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury: