• Bet Gabe Davis anytime TD at Patriots: Over the past three games, Davis has 15 catches — nearly half his season total (33).
• When he avoids Jack and Jonathan Jones, Davis will battle Jalen Mills (42.7 PFF coverage grade), who's No. 116 of 121 graded cornerbacks.
• Bet Bills QB Josh Allen anytime TD: 78+ rush yards in 3/4; Patriots provide pressure on 39% of snaps, No. 2 in the NFL behind Cowboys.
Last updated: Dec. 1, 9:00 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 2 min
Week 13 of the NFL season includes three exciting primetime games, beginning with the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (-4, 43.5) visiting the New England Patriots on “Thursday Night Football.”
Here are our favorite anytime TD prop bets Thursday night:
Bet: Buffalo Bills WR Gabriel Davis anytime TD @ New England Patriots (+190 DraftKings)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +170
• Good Matchup, Good Price: In a divisional road game as the favored team, Buffalo's Gabriel Davis could benefit from a tremendous one-on-one matchup against Patriots CB Jalen Mills. Opposite Davis is the Bills' No. 1 option, Stefon Diggs, but he'll battle with veteran Jonathan Jones (PFF's No. 11 of 166 CBs), whom Diggs should still beat. The Patriots also have stud rookie Jack Jones (6th) at corner, but Davis’ matchup when he's lined up across Mills is too good to pass up. Among all cornerbacks who have played at least 225 coverage snaps, Mills ranks 88 out of 89 in coverage grade (42.7). Look for Allen to take advantage of this matchup and Davis’ 16.3 aDOT. Over the past three weeks, Davis has caught 15 of his 33 passes on the season.
Bet Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen anytime TD @ New England Patriots (+180 BetMGM)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +170
• Benefits From Scrambling: Designed runs aren’t something the Bills often plan for Allen (six over the past three games), but he does a fair share of scrambling (13 in the same span). The Bills offensive line ranks 21st in pass blocking (63.4 grade), and this week, they’ll face a Patriots pass rush that trails on the Dallas Cowboys in pressure (39%) and sack rate (8.7%). NFL sack leader Matthew Judon has 14 of New England's 37 sacks. Allen has had at least 78 rushing yards in three of his past four games. He may need to scramble more here, and when he does, he’ll succeed.
Richard's anytime TD bets are 29-49 on the season (-1.48 units).
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