Week 3 is too early for any game to be a “must-win” affair, but there are several high-leverage situations between teams with similar goals.
The Indianapolis Colts are looking to avoid an 0-3 start to their season in a contest with their biggest, and likely only, AFC South competition. The Los Angeles Chargers are hoping to prove to the Kansas City Chiefs that they are legitimate contenders in the AFC West with Justin Herbert at quarterback. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be tested by arguably their biggest competition in the NFC.
These are the key storylines and matchups to monitor for all 16 games this week as we begin to get a better idea of who these teams are this season.
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CAR @ HOU | WFT @ BUF | CHI @ CLE | BAL @ DET | IND @ TEN
LAC @ KC | NO @ NE | ATL @ NYG | CIN @ PIT | ARZ @ JAX |
NYJ @ DEN | MIA @ LV | TB @ LAR | SEA @ MIN |
GB @ SF | PHI @ DAL
Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans (+7.5)
Matchup to watch: QB Davis Mills vs. Carolina pressure
Houston's offense took a significant step backward when Mills entered the team's Week 2 game against Cleveland.
| Quarterback | Offensive Snaps | Yards Per Play | PFF Passing Grade |
| Tyrod Taylor | 26 | 6.9 | 78.7 |
| Davis Mills | 35 | 3.7 | 32.7 |
With Tyrod Taylor‘s hamstring injury being serious enough to send him to injured reserve, Mills will be thrust into the starting lineup again on a short week against a Carolina defense that has been impressive thus far. The Panthers' 52% pressure rate through two weeks is the highest mark in the league. That could cause problems for Mills, whose mobility was a concern when he came out of Stanford.
Biggest storyline: How far can the Panthers extend their winning streak?
The Panthers have jumped out to a 2-0 record on the back of a dominant defense (first in expected points allowed per play) and an average offense (17th in expected points added per play). Sam Darnold is producing a turnover-worthy play just once every 40 dropbacks through two weeks, which would comfortably be the lowest rate of his career. But how long does that formula continue?
It would be a surprise if Carolina doesn't come away from this game with a win after entering it as touchdown-plus favorites. Upcoming games against Dallas, Philadelphia and Minnesota should provide a better idea of where the Panthers stack up in the NFC.
The current over/under for this game is 44. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Washington Football Team @ Buffalo Bills (-9)
Matchup to watch: DI Jonathan Allen vs. LG Jon Feliciano
There is a strong case to be made that Allen is Washington's best pass-rusher and one of the better interior pass-rushers in the NFL. Allen was the team's highest-graded pass-rusher in 2020 (83.7 PFF pass-rushing grade) despite recording only two sacks, and his 90.5 pass-rushing grade through two weeks of the 2021 season is tied for third among interior defensive linemen, trailing only Javon Hargrave and Aaron Donald.
Feliciano should see most of the work against him at left guard in this game. He was beaten with regularity by Cam Heyward in Week 1 (eight pressures allowed) but put up a clean sheet in pass protection against Miami in Week 2. Limiting Allen to zero pressures would be a massive win for Feliciano and the Bills' offense.
Biggest storyline: Can Josh Allen right the ship?
No panic buttons are being pressed after a 35-0 win on the road. But that victory against Miami was largely a product of the Bills' defense getting after both Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett on nearly every dropback. Allen hasn't looked like the same quarterback who jumped into the elite tier at the position with his play in 2020.
Allen ranks just 28th among quarterbacks in PFF grade (62.3) through two weeks, and his 25% uncatchable pass rate is the third-highest mark in the league. That needs to change if Buffalo is going to make it back to the AFC Championship.
The current over/under for this game is 45.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns (-7.5)
Matchup to watch: LB Roquan Smith vs. Cleveland's tight ends
Both of the Browns' top two wide receivers are dealing with injuries. Jarvis Landry will miss this game with a knee injury, and Odell Beckham Jr.'s status is uncertain after he sat out each of Cleveland's first two contests with a knee injury of his own. The Browns have leaned heavily on their tight ends (Austin Hooper, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant) early in the season because of those ailments at wide receiver. Cleveland's tight ends have combined for 22 targets compared to just 18 wide receiver targets.
Smith will likely see plenty of those three in coverage, and he's proven to be one of the best coverage linebackers in the league over the past year. His 87.9 coverage grade since the start of the 2020 season ranks third among qualifiers at the position.
Biggest storyline: Justin Fields makes his debut as starter
Fields draws his highly anticipated first NFL start off the back of Andy Dalton‘s bone bruise in his knee. Fields should add more of an explosive element to Chicago's passing offense than what Dalton provided, even if we see the mistakes you would expect from a rookie quarterback behind a makeshift offensive line.
The Bears rank dead last in percentage of passing plays gaining 15 or more yards (3.9%) through two weeks. Fields' ability to push the ball downfield accurately and create with his legs will likely spike that number.
The current over/under for this game is 46.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions (+9)
Matchup to watch: LT Penei Sewell vs. EDGE Odafe Oweh
Sewell has looked much more comfortable back at left tackle after struggling throughout the preseason on the right side. His 71.1 PFF grade through two seasons ranks 10th among qualifying left tackles entering the week.
Oweh, a fellow first-round pick, has also impressed early in the year as part of Baltimore's attacking defense. He has notched three tackles for loss or no gain against the run and forced the game-winning fumble last week against Kansas City. Oweh has lined up outside of the left tackle on 52% of his snaps, meaning he should see Sewell a decent amount of the time.
Biggest storyline: Can the Lions match Baltimore in the trenches?
Detroit's actions this offseason indicated that the team's rebuild starts in the trenches. The Lions' first three draft picks were all made with the intention of strengthening their offensive and defensive lines.
Baltimore's team is also built around winning the line of scrimmage battle, but the offensive line has taken a step back since 2019 due to a combination of injuries and personnel changes. The unit ranks 22nd in PFF grade since 2020 after slotting in at third in 2019. The Lions' best chance at pulling off the upset is winning in the trenches, as Baltimore outclasses them at nearly every other position.
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The current over/under for this game is 49.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Matchup to watch: RB Derrick Henry vs. Colts run defense
It was only a matter of time for Henry. After a quiet Week 1, he ran all over Seattle's defense to the tune of 182 yards and three touchdowns. His 201 rushing yards after contact this season are more than any other running back has in total on the ground.
That's a potential problem area for an Indianapolis defense that has struggled to tackle runners through two weeks. The Colts' 12 missed tackles in the run game are tied for fourth-most in the NFL.
Biggest storyline: This is an important early-season AFC South matchup
The AFC South is shaping up to be a two-team race. PFF's season simulations currently give Indianapolis a 45% chance of winning the division and Tennessee a 35% chance entering Week 3. There are no must-win games this early in the campaign, but this is one of the most high-stakes matchups of the Week 3 slate.
The Colts falling to 0-3 with a loss to their primary competition in the division would create an uphill climb the rest of the year. It's not an ideal spot for doubt about Carson Wentz's health, as he enters the week with two sprained ankles.
The current over/under for this game is 48. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Matchup to watch: TE Travis Kelce vs. S Derwin James
The Athletic's Nate Taylor said in an interview this offseason, “There's been one defender who I've seen cover Travis Kelce effectively snap to snap. That player is Derwin James.”
James' coverage stats in games against Kansas City back up that statement. In three matchups since 2018, James has allowed three receptions to Kelce for just eight yards as the primary coverage defender. And Kelce totaled just 91 receiving yards on 92 routes combined in those three games.
It's a battle between two of the most unique talents in the league at their respective positions. Enjoy the fact that injuries haven't taken it away from us again.
Biggest storyline: First look at Patrick Mahomes squaring off against Brandon Staley's defense
Stylistically, Brandon Staley's Chargers defense has flashed similarities to his 2020 Rams defense through two weeks. Los Angeles has shown two-high safeties pre-snap on a league-high 85% of their defensive snaps, and they've had six or fewer defenders in the box 67% of the time (fourth). It's a defense built around limiting explosive passing plays. The Rams allowed just 41 gains of 20-plus yards last season (12 fewer than any other defense).
The Chiefs will test that philosophy better than perhaps any other offense in the league. Their 233 pass plays of 20 or more yards since Mahomes took over in 2018 rank second in the league to only Tampa Bay (253).
The current over/under for this game is 55.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (+3)
Matchup to watch: Patriots edge rushers vs. Saints tackles
Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk both rank among the top 10 tackles in the NFL in pressure rate allowed since 2017. Those two anchor one of the league's best offensive lines.
That unit will be tested by New England's new and improved defensive front. Matthew Judon (10 pressures) and Josh Uche (six pressures) lead the team in pressures, and both have pass-rush win rates over 30% through two weeks. It will be interesting to see how they fare in this game given the bump up in competition from Miami and New York's tackles to Armstead and Ramczyk.
Biggest storyline: Do we see Week 1 or Week 2 Jameis Winston in this game?
Winston was tied for PFF's second-highest overall grade at quarterback in Week 1 (89.5), only to see that grade plummet to 40.7 against the Panthers in Week 2 (30th). The big difference between those two contests was game script. Winston didn't take a dropback when trailing against Green Bay, and he didn't take a dropback when leading against Carolina.
The Saints will look for him to bounce back against a Patriots defense that has impressed through two weeks, ranking third in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play. However, unlike New England's first two opponents, the Saints don't present an outmatched offensive line and a young quarterback.
The current over/under for this game is 41.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (-3)
Matchup to watch: Giants offensive line vs. Falcons defensive line
This is the opposite of unstoppable force meets immovable object. It's an opportunity for two of the worst units in the league to bounce back against a side that has been equally overmatched early in the year. New York's offensive line enters this matchup ranked 31st in PFF pass-blocking grade. Atlanta's defensive line has somehow managed to outdo that, ranking 32nd as a unit in PFF pass-rush grade (55.7).
Grady Jarrett is the best player on either side, but even he has yet to make much of an impact as a pass-rusher, with only two pressures through Atlanta's first two games.
Biggest storyline: Atlanta's offense has been one of NFL's worst through two weeks
There was excitement surrounding Atlanta's offense entering the year, even after the loss of Julio Jones. Arthur Smith joined as head coach after orchestrating one of the league's most efficient offenses the past two seasons in Tennessee, and the Falcons drafted the dynamic Kyle Pitts in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
That excitement has quickly turned to disappointment. The Falcons have earned a higher EPA per play than only the Dolphins and Jets entering Week 3.
Matt Ryan's 5.0-yard average depth of target (31st) is a stark departure from 2020 when his 9.3-yard mark ranked sixth among qualifiers. It's just one area where you can see the impact of Atlanta's troubles along the offensive line.
The current over/under for this game is 48. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
Matchup to watch: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. CB Mike Hilton
Smith-Schuster has been one of the league's most productive slot receivers since Pittsburgh drafted him in 2017, ranking third in receiving yards from an inside alignment — behind only Tyler Boyd and Cooper Kupp.
| Player | Slot receiving yards since 2017 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2,533 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2,526 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2,473 |
| Cole Beasley | 2,464 |
He hasn't produced quite as many big plays since 2020 as we saw early in his career, but he's still a reliable target over the middle of the field. Smith-Schuster has dropped just three passes since the beginning of last year.
He should see plenty of his former teammate Hilton in the slot. Hilton's 82.6 passer rating allowed in the slot since 2017 ranks third among 28 players with 100-plus targets as the nickel.
Biggest storyline: Neither offense has inspired confidence entering Week 3
Both of these offenses rank among the bottom-10 units in the league in EPA per play entering Week 3. Pittsburgh comes in at 24th, and Cincinnati follows behind at 28th.
Those kinds of results were somewhat expected for Pittsburgh, given the way the team ended the 2020 season, Ben Roethlisberger's career trajectory and the offensive line rebuild. There was more optimism around Cincinnati's offense entering 2021, though. A bottom-five EPA per play mark represents a disappointing start to the year.
Points could be at a premium in this game, evidenced by PFF Greenline showing value on the under on a 44-point over/under.
The current over/under for this game is 44. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)
Matchup to watch: WR Laviska Shenault Jr. vs. CB Byron Murphy Jr.
It has not been an efficient start to the season for Shenault in what many hoped would be a breakout sophomore campaign. He's managed to record just 47 receiving yards on 16 targets through Jacksonville's first two games, dropping a couple of passes last week against Denver. Early reports indicate that a shoulder injury won't keep him from playing in Week 3.
He'll match up primarily with Murphy, who notched several pass breakups in Arizona's opener against Tennessee. However, Murphy has also allowed 140 passing yards into his coverage through two weeks (fifth-most in NFL). Wrapping up and bringing Shenault to the ground will be key given the wideout's sub-5.0-yard average depth of target and after-the-catch ability.
Biggest storyline: This game features two quarterbacks on opposite ends of the spectrum entering Week 3
Kyler Murray is one of the leading MVP candidates through two weeks, ranking second in the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns for the 2-0 Cardinals. His nine big-time throws are tied for the most in the NFL with Derek Carr, and the Jaguars have shown a proclivity to allow production through the air early this season.
On the other side, Trevor Lawrence is currently PFF's lowest-graded quarterback (47.8) through two weeks. He leads all signal-callers in turnover-worthy plays (six) and uncatchable pass rate (36%).
The high-end plays, like this pass to Marvin Jones Jr., have flashed on his tape, but he's also making too many mistakes right now in an offense that isn't doing him many favors.
The current over/under for this game is 52. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (-10.5)
Matchup to watch: RT Morgan Moses vs. EDGE Von Miller
Miller has bounced back in a big way from an ankle injury that sidelined him in 2020. Through two weeks, his 86.8 pass-rushing grade is a top-10 mark among edge defenders with at least 25 pass-rushing snaps. His 11 quarterback pressures are tied for third at the position, behind only Maxx Crosby and Arik Armstead.
This is an exploitable matchup against Moses and the Jets' offensive line. The only offense to allow a higher pressure rate than New York so far this season (52%) is Miami's (55%). Moses, meanwhile, has surrendered four pressures on 52 pass-blocking snaps at right tackle (26th out of 39 qualifiers at the position).
Biggest storyline: Does Zach Wilson fare better against Vic Fangio's defense than Bill Belichick's?
The Patriots had Wilson seeing ghosts last week in a performance where the rookie threw four interceptions and took four sacks. Things don't get a whole lot easier, if at all, against Fangio's defense in Denver.
The Broncos have allowed fewer than five yards per pass play in matchups with the Giants and Jaguars. And they have the secondary depth this season to withstand injuries like the one to Ronald Darby, as evidenced by Patrick Surtain II‘s 78.0 coverage grade in a starting role last week. And their defensive front can get after opposing quarterbacks, once again led by a healthy Miller.
The current over/under for this game is 41. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: Miami offensive line vs. Raiders pass rush
Miami's offensive line isn't in its current state for lack of investment. The Dolphins drafted each of Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt, Liam Eichenberg and Solomon Kindley in the first four rounds in recent years. Yet, no team has allowed pressure at a higher rate than Miami through two weeks (55%).
Meanwhile, the Raiders' pass rush has been a pleasant surprise. Yannick Ngakoue has looked the part of a big-time free agent acquisition, featuring an 87.7 pass-rushing grade and nine pressures in his first two games with Las Vegas. And he's been outshined by Maxx Crosby on the other side, whose 19 quarterback pressures are the most in the NFL entering Week 3.
Biggest storyline: Raiders look to continue knocking off AFC competition
The Raiders enter this game 2-0 with victories over potential Wild Card competition in the AFC between Pittsburgh and Baltimore. This game against Miami is yet another opportunity to win what could end up being an important tiebreaker later in the season.
Las Vegas' passing offense, led by Derek Carr, has been impressive to start the season, but that's not exactly a departure from what we've seen the past few years. It's the team's improved defense (11th in EPA allowed per play) that has been the more promising development for its outlook the rest of the year.
The current over/under for this game is 45.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams (-1)
Matchup to watch: WR Chris Godwin vs. CB Jalen Ramsey
Ramsey has seemingly made the transition from a cornerback who dabbled in the slot last season to the team's primary slot defender in 2021. A team-high 74 of his 135 defensive snaps have come lined up inside, and he's excelled in that role. Ramsey has allowed 13 passing yards into his coverage on 48 slot coverage snaps through two weeks.
That means Ramsey should primarily see Godwin, who has run a team-high 62 routes from the slot for Tampa Bay this season. Godwin leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving first downs entering this contest, but Tom Brady could look his way less this week given the matchup.
Biggest storyline: Buccaneers face off against arguably their biggest NFC challenger
PFF's power rankings currently have Tampa Bay as the NFC's top team, worth roughly seven points against the spread. The next highest-ranked team in the NFC is Los Angeles at fourth overall. This could very well be a matchup that resurfaces down the road in the postseason.
As PFF's Seth Galina wrote this week, Matthew Stafford gives the Rams a better chance of going toe to toe with the Buccaneers in this matchup. His 10.7 passing yards per attempt entering this game rank third among qualifying quarterbacks, as does his 83.6 PFF passing grade. That level of threat in the passing game is something that was missing the past two seasons with Jared Goff.
The current over/under for this game is 55. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (+2)
Matchup to watch: LT Duane Brown vs. EDGE Danielle Hunter
Brown has consistently been Seattle's best offensive lineman since the team traded for him, particularly in pass protection.
| Season | PFF pass-blocking grade | Pass-block rank at LT |
| 2018 | 86.7 | T-4th |
| 2019 | 77.0 | 14th |
| 2020 | 84.9 | 6th |
| 2021 | 90.2 | 1st |
His 90.2 pass-blocking grade entering Week 3 ranks first among qualifying left tackles. Brown won't see Hunter for the entire game, but Hunter has lined up outside of the left tackle on 47 of his 112 defensive snaps so far this year.
Hunter's last full season of action in 2019 resulted in 88 quarterback pressures, second-most in the NFL to only Za'Darius Smith. He bounced back from a relatively quiet season opener with seven pressures last week against Arizona (tied for fourth-most), rounding into form following a 2020 opt-out.
Biggest storyline: Minnesota's cornerbacks need to quickly figure things out
No cornerback group in the NFL has earned a lower PFF coverage grade than Minnesota's through two weeks of the 2021 season (35.6). Each of the starting cornerbacks has had a turn allowing big-time production. Bashaud Breeland gave up 107 yards and two touchdowns into his coverage in the opener against Cincinnati, and last week both Patrick Peterson (98 yards and two touchdowns) and Mackensie Alexander (87 yards) were picked on by Kyler Murray.
Things don't get any easier against Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and a potent Seahawks passing attack.
The current over/under for this game is 55. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: LT Elgton Jenkins vs. EDGE Nick Bosa
Jenkins' ability to step in and play left tackle at a high level for Green Bay has been massive with David Bakhtiari starting the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. His 75.2 PFF grade through two weeks ranks sixth among 38 qualifying left tackles this year.
A healthy Bosa will test just how comfortable Jenkins is at his new position. His 16.3% pressure rate when lined up outside the left tackle since 2019 ranks second among qualifying players. He's looking to bounce back from injury to build on a 2019 rookie season in which his 80 quarterback pressures were more than any other rookie in the past decade.
Biggest storyline: 49ers offense continues to be efficient despite below-average quarterback play
The 49ers rank sixth in average yards per pass play (8.3) in 2021 despite ranking 19th as a team in PFF passing grade. The offense outperforming below-average quarterback play has been a consistent theme for San Francisco since Kyle Shanahan took over as head coach in 2017. The 49ers have averaged 7.7 yards per pass play with Shanahan (seventh-highest), but they rank only 21st in team passing grade over that same stretch.
That may make it difficult for the team to justify making the switch to Trey Lance at quarterback, particularly if San Francisco continues to win games.
The current over/under for this game is 48.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-4)
Matchup to watch: WR CeeDee Lamb vs. CB Darius Slay
Lamb and Amari Cooper have both seen a high volume of targets from Dak Prescott through the first two weeks of the season. Both have commanded 20-plus targets, but Lamb has been more efficient from a yards-per-route-run perspective (2.5) despite dropping two passes.
PFF's WR/CB matchup chart projects Lamb to see Slay at left cornerback for the majority of his snaps against a Philadelphia defense that has run significantly less man coverage this season. Their 5% Cover 1 rate entering Week 3 ranks last in the league.
Slay has had success in that new scheme, allowing just 36 passing yards into his coverage on 11 targets thus far.
Biggest storyline: Can Jalen Hurts continue his strong start to the season?
Hurts' starting job entering the year was far from secure, but he's done himself nothing but favors with his play through Week 2. Only Tom Brady has a higher PFF grade (93.0) than Hurts (87.5) among quarterbacks entering Week 3.
The two big areas where he's shown improvement over 2020 are accuracy and care with the football. Hurts' accurate pass rate, based on PFF's ball-charting data, is 71% this season after being just 50% in 2020. And his turnover-worthy play rate has dropped from 4.6% in 2020 to 1.4% through the first two weeks of this season.
That kind of play makes Philadelphia a threat in what appears to once again be an open race in the NFC East.
The current over/under for this game is 51.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
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