• Saquon Barkley carries the Philadelphia Eagles: Barkley racked up 205 yards and two touchdowns on the ground as the Eagles defeated the Los Angeles Rams.
• Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce run it back: The Kansas City Chiefs’ superstar connection unites in the playoffs once more.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF's best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
Kansas City Chiefs 23, Houston Texans 14
Why the Chiefs won
The Chiefs' superstar connection ignites: The Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce connection came to life when the Chiefs needed it the most. Kelce caught seven of eight targets for 117 yards and a touchdown while carrying the bulk of the receiving all afternoon. His 91.0 grade was his highest of the season, and Kelce showed off his ability to move in the open field too, averaging 8.4 yards after the catch per reception.
An effective blitzing: The Chiefs had success when blitzing Stroud. The defense blitzed on 39.0% of Stroud’s dropbacks and sacked him three times in the process, and the Chiefs got pressure from all over the defense too. George Karlaftis led the way with eight pressures, but six defensive backs and off-ball linebackers all registered at least one pressure. A sign that the plan worked.
A strong defensive performance: Steve Spagnuolo’s defense delivered a strong performance, and their assured tackling throughout the game was emblematic of the unit stepping up in the playoffs once again. The Chiefs had just one missed tackle and 25 total stops in the game, with 11 defenders registering at least one pressure.
Why the Texans lost
The Texans’ OL struggles again: It’s hard to win football games when your quarterback is sacked 10 times in a game. The Texans offensive line has struggled to protect C.J. Stroud all season, and it struggled once more, allowing 22 total pressures and 10 sacks. Stroud was pressured on 53.7% of his dropbacks and struggled under duress.
Penalties remain a talking point: Disregard the nature of the penalties that were assessed — a major talking point throughout the game, and the Chiefs season — but the fact that the Texans were penalized eight times, giving up 82 penalty yards in the process, was a huge factor in the game. Multiple roughing the passer calls and unnecessary roughness penalties were called in favor of Patrick Mahomes, rightly or wrongly, and they factored into the loss.
Points left on the board by special teams: The Texans left a lot of points on the board by way of special teams and missed kicks. Ka’imi Fairbairn converted on just two of four field goal attempts in the game, missing a 55-yard attempt before he had a 35-yard attempt blocked in the final two minutes. Fairbairn finished with a 32.0 field goal grade and also missed an extra point.
Washington Commanders 45, Detroit Lions 31
Why the Commanders won
Jayden Daniels’ lore grows: Jayden Daniels was excellent in the win, and much of his production came when the Lions blitzed him. Daniels was blitzed on 47.2% of his dropbacks, but he completed 12 of 15 pass attempts for 200 yards and a touchdown, averaging 13.3 yards per attempt and earning a 92.5 grade. He also had a big-time throw against the blitz and was sacked zero times. He was on fire.
The defense makes just enough plays: The Commanders defense gave up 31 points in the game, but it did enough to make a few plays in the game, which was enough to pick up the victory. The defense forced five turnovers, picking off Jared Goff three times while forcing another fumble and picking off Jameson Williams. Rookie Mike Sainristil picked off Goff twice and earned a 72.3 grade, while Quan Martin took an interception back for six points, earning a 75.0 grade.
Efficient running helps carry the load: Daniels, Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson proved to be effective on the ground for the Commanders, carrying the ball a combined 42 times for 182 yards and two rushing touchdowns while Jeremy McNichols added a third. Robinson led the way with 77 yards and two touchdowns, earning a 75.6 rushing grade, but the Commanders averaged 4.3 yards per carry as a team and churned out efficient yards.
Why the Lions lost
The Lions' defense struggles to finish: The Lions pass rush got after Daniels, pressuring him on 36.1% of his dropbacks and registering 17 pressures in total, but their inability to sack Daniels and cut drives short hurt throughout the game. Daniels has shown a penchant for avoiding sacks in his rookie season, and the Lions pass rush just couldn’t get hands on him. Pressures are good, but defenses must be able to turn them into sacks.
Goff and the offense can’t take care of the ball: Just as turnovers benefitted the Commanders, they were the Lions’ undoing. Goff turned the ball over three times in the first half, and the Lions' inability to protect the football saw them down by 10 and chasing the game by the half. Goff turned the ball over again in the second half, and Williams threw an errant interception on a trick play. Not protecting the ball in the biggest moments cost the Lions.
Yards after the catch struggles: The Lions' defense lost Amik Robertson early in the game, and with the defense already depleted, any further injury would hurt. But even beyond that, the defense struggled to take down open ball-carriers and allowed 193 yards after the catch to the Commanders receivers. Kindle Vildor, who stepped in for Robertson, allowed 115 yards after the catch.
Philadelphia Eagles 28, Los Angeles Rams 22
Why the Eagles won
Barkley runs riot again: Saquon Barkley has been the ever-constant for the Eagles offense, even when it has struggled. The offensive line had a mixed day, allowing Hurts to be sacked seven times, but it opened holes for Barkley in the running game, and he duly obliged. Barkley carried the ball 26 times for 205 yards and two touchdowns, breaking off two big touchdown runs and forcing five missed tackles. He averaged 7.9 yards per carry and 6.54 yards after contact per attempt, earning a 68.0 grade. Barkley, once again, was the difference maker.
The pass rush gets after Stafford: The Eagles’ pass rush was productive again, notching five sacks of Matthew Stafford while registering 22 total pressures. The bulk of the pressure came from Jalen Carter, who earned an 84.6 pass-rushing grade after registering seven pressures and two sacks, and Nolan Smith, who recorded six pressures and a sack. The offense wasn’t at its best for most of the game, but the Eagles were able to rely on their young offensive stars.
Jake Elliott makes the kicks that matter: The snow rained down in Lincoln Financial Field, which made the conditions awful for special teams. Jake Elliott missed two of three extra points in the win, but he came up with three big field goals when it mattered the most. Elliott hit three field goals in the second half, including two in the fourth quarter, to help the Eagles put nine points on the board, coming up clutch in the snow.
Why the Rams lost
Turnovers: The margin for error in a playoff game of this magnitude, especially in the snow, was thin. However, the Rams were the pioneers of their downfall, coughing up two fumbles in the loss. Stafford and Kyren Williams both lost fumbles in the fourth quarter in back-to-back series, and both turnovers led to Eagles’ field goals.
Missed tackles against the run: Going up against someone of Saquon Barkley’s quality was always going to be a challenge, and the Rams defense would have to be at its best, but it struggled against Barkley and the Eagles' consistent rushing attack, as missed tackles proved to be a common theme. The defense missed seven tackles against the run, as Barkley’s ability to create and run after contact was more than the Rams could handle. Six defenders all had tackling grades below 45.0 in the loss.
Pass-blocking struggles for the Rams: The offensive line has been a mixed bag for the Rams all season, and though it wasn’t at its worst against the Eagles, it definitely struggled. Stafford was pressured on 36.0% of his dropbacks and was sacked five times. The pressure came largely from the interior, as Kevin Dotson and Beaux Limmer allowed a combined 10 pressures and two sacks.
Buffalo Bills 27, Baltimore Ravens 25
Why the Bills won
Putting in the work on the ground: The Bills offense has been meaner and nastier on the ground throughout the season. Buffalo runs the ball as a strength rather than out of necessity, and its efforts proved vital against the Ravens. As a team, the Bills clocked up an effective 147 yards and three touchdowns on 36 carries. James Cook, Ty Johnson and Ray Davis all had one explosive run each, while Josh Allen scored two short-yardage touchdowns to highlight that mean edge the Bills have adopted.
Pass rush gets after Lamar Jackson: There aren’t many more difficult quarterbacks to play against than Jackson, but the Bills pass rush did an excellent job of winning up front and slowing him down. The Bills pressured Jackson on 45.2% of his dropbacks, sacking him twice, as Jackson coughed up a costly fumble that led to the Bills scoring a touchdown. The defense registered 19 total pressures, and Matt Milano and Ed Oliver combined for 10 in total.
A good enough job containing Derrick Henry: The Ravens' numbers on the ground look good on the surface, but the Bills defense did enough of a job slowing down Derrick Henry for over a half of football. Henry was held to under 100 yards for the first time in five games, carrying the ball just 16 times for 84 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens’ rushing attack did a better job in the second half, but the Bills' defense had nine stops in the run game and did well to contain Henry.
Why the Ravens lost
Uncharacteristic mistakes: The Ravens had the third-fewest giveaways in the regular season, as Jackson only threw four interceptions, but untimely and uncharacteristic turnovers were costly against the Bills. Jackson threw an early interception on a wayward pass and lost a fumble that was later converted into a touchdown in the first half. Mark Andrews lost a fumble midway through the fourth quarter before the big moment of the game where he dropped a catch on a two-point conversion that would have tied the game in the final moments.
Struggles against the blitz: Jackson has been much-improved against the blitz in 2024, but struggled when the Bills blitzed him on Sunday night. The Bills blitzed Jackson on 41.9% of his dropbacks, as Jackson completed just six of 12 pass attempts for 99 yards and a pick. Jackson was also sacked on a blitzed dropback, as Damar Hamlin forced the fumble that later led to the Bills touchdown — Jackson earned a 43.6 grade against the blitz.
Not enough consistent pressure: The Ravens' defense struggled against a Bills offensive line that has been rolling in 2024. The offensive line allowed just six pressures, and Allen was pressured on just seven total dropbacks with one sack in the game. The defense had just 11 total pressures in the game, and its inability to win consistently upfront meant that the Bills were able to run the ball effectively and keep Allen protected.
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