- Buy the Patriots‘ improvements: Mike Vrabel wasted no time reshaping the Patriots in his vision, drawing on his experience turning around struggling teams. New England was one of just two franchises to earn an A+ in PFF’s offseason grades — a strong early signal that the rebuild is on the right track.
- Sell the Bears‘ arduous path: While a four-win jump from Chicago’s five-win 2024 season isn’t unreasonable on paper, reaching that mark in the NFC North — the conference’s toughest division — makes hitting the over a steep challenge.
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The NFL coaching carousel spun fast this offseason, with seven teams hopping on for a fresh start in 2025. Five franchises handed the reins to first-time head coaches, while two opted for experienced hands to steer the ship.
Now that the dust has settled and win totals are on the board, it’s time to evaluate each new hire and decide which coaching bets are worth buying or selling.
Buy
Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys: 7.5 wins – O (-110) / U (+120)
Despite being without quarterback Dak Prescott for nine games in 2024, the Cowboys still managed to win seven games. Though they posted just a 3-5 record with Prescott under center, the return of a former MVP candidate — who earned a 90.8 PFF grade in 2023 — is a major boost for a team looking to stabilize offensively.
While Brian Schottenheimer enters his first season as a head coach, he’s no stranger to the Cowboys. Having been with the organization since 2021 and serving as offensive coordinator for the past two seasons, his continuity and familiarity with the roster should help ease the transition.
The path through the NFC East will be challenging, and a division title may be out of reach, but hitting the eight-win mark is a realistic and attainable goal.
Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 wins – O (-145) / U (+120)
Targeting experience at head coach has already paid dividends for the Raiders, as Pete Carroll and GM John Spytek wasted no time reshaping the roster, a transition that earned strong marks in PFF’s offseason grades.
The trade for Geno Smith, who ranks fourth in negatively graded throw rate (11.3%) since 2022, was a highlight of a savvy free agency period. Pair that with a well-rounded draft class headlined by Ashton Jeanty, the highest-graded running back in college football over the past two seasons, and the pieces are in place for immediate progress.
The market remains somewhat divided on Las Vegas’ win total, with lines hovering between 6.5 and 7.5. With a manageable schedule ahead, Carroll should have this team firmly in contention to hit — or exceed — either number.
Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots: 7.5 wins – O (-150) / U (+125)
With a proven track record of transforming struggling teams, Mike Vrabel wasted no time reshaping the Patriots in his vision. New England was one of just two teams to earn an A+ in PFF’s offseason grades — a strong early signal of a franchise trending upward.
Despite a four-win season in 2024 and bottom-10 finishes in both offensive (63.2) and defensive (64.4) team grades, the front office was aggressive in free agency and the draft. No upgrade was more critical than the offensive line, where they signed veteran Morgan Moses and selected Will Campbell — key additions that should accelerate the development of rookie quarterback Drake Maye.
While a four-win leap is no small task, the Patriots face just four playoff teams in 2025, giving them one of the easiest schedules in the league — and a clear path toward meaningful improvement.
Aaron Glenn, New York Jets: 5.5 wins – 5.5 O (-135) / U (+148)
The Jets made a strong move in hiring Aaron Glenn to lead the franchise forward. His energy and leadership should go a long way in stabilizing a locker room that endured a turbulent 2024 season.
Glenn’s defensive background aligns well with the current roster’s strengths. While the team lost some key contributors in free agency, they filled several gaps effectively, including a strong draft class headlined by Armand Membou. Offensively, questions remain, particularly in the passing game, which likely points to a run-heavy approach centered around Breece Hall and a promising young offensive line. Expect the defense to remain the backbone of this team.
Even amid the chaos last season, the Jets managed five wins. With a more focused direction under Glenn, a one-win improvement is realistic and well within reach.
Sell
Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears: 8.5 wins – O (+120) / U (-110)
With Ben Johnson taking over as head coach, the Bears didn’t just upgrade their leadership; they also addressed several of their most glaring roster deficiencies. Most notably, the offensive line saw a major overhaul with the additions of All-Pro Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson, reinforcing a unit that allowed the second-most sacks (41) in the NFL last season.
As the most coveted coaching hire of the offseason, Johnson arrives with high expectations, reflected in Chicago’s 8.5 win total, per oddsmakers. On paper, a four-win jump from their five-win 2024 campaign seems attainable, but the path won’t be easy.
The Bears face the NFC’s strongest division and own the seventh-toughest projected strength of schedule. That combination makes clearing the over a challenging task.
Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars: 7.5 wins – O (-110) / U (+100)
While the Jaguars’ late-season struggles may appear tied to Trevor Lawrence’s absence, the issues ran deeper than quarterback play. Even with Lawrence starting through Week 9, Jacksonville managed just two wins — the same total they earned without him.
New general manager James Gladstone has initiated sweeping changes to reshape the roster, but several holes remain, particularly on defense. The run defense, which ranked bottom-10 in EPA allowed per rush last season, saw minimal reinforcement and will likely remain a liability in 2025.
Liam Coen is a promising coaching hire who benefits from a relatively soft schedule in his debut season, but the offense must carry the load. Given the current roster limitations, doubling last year’s win total will be a tall order.
Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints: 5.5 – O (+130) / U (-125)
Moore inherits a Saints team that has stubbornly resisted a full rebuild, continuing to push cap commitments into the future while making a series of questionable personnel decisions. The instability reached a point where New Orleans was the last team to fill its head coaching vacancy this offseason.
While Derek Carr dealt with injuries in 2024, his retirement leaves a massive void. He ranked fifth among qualifying quarterbacks in PFF passing grade (86.7), and in his absence, the Saints' quarterback room ranked dead last with a 50.4 grade.
Now, Moore is tasked with implementing a new offensive system around 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shough, who has an injury history and just one full season as a collegiate starter. Given the circumstances, even a modest one-win improvement feels like a stretch.
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