- Lamar Jackson (+550) is the early betting favorite: He fell short in the 2024 MVP race, but oddsmakers currently view Jackson as the frontrunner to take home the award in 2025.
- Could Jayden Daniels (+850) take the next step? The 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year enters 2025 with a chance to elevate his game and join the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson as second-year MVP winners.
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We’re still more than seven months away from the 2025 NFL awards being handed out, but it’s never too early to start evaluating the field.
As training camps approach and rosters begin to take shape, the MVP conversation is already quietly gaining momentum. Whether you're looking for early favorites, intriguing sleepers or longshot bets with breakout potential, now is the time to identify where the best value lies before the market begins to shift.
Here’s an early breakdown of the top contenders, dark horses and deep sleepers in the race for the 2025 NFL MVP.
Top Betting Picks
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (+550)
In the eyes of PFF’s award voters, Lamar Jackson was the NFL’s Most Valuable Player in 2024. While the Ravens signal-caller missed out on the official recognition, the numbers speak for themselves. And oddsmakers agree, listing him as the current favorite to capture the honor in 2025.
By traditional stats alone, Jackson’s 2024 season was historic, as he became the first quarterback in league history to surpass 4,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards in the same year. From an advanced metrics perspective, he was even better: his 94.9 overall PFF grade not only led the NFL but also ranked sixth among quarterbacks since 2006.
Those benchmarks make his absence from the MVP record books in 2024 all the more puzzling and set the stage for another strong push in 2025, now with even more talent surrounding him.
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+600)
Allen finally captured his first league MVP award in 2024 after years of elite play, bolstered by the Bills’ success in a stacked AFC and the perceived weight of his impact on that run.
The result underscored the narrative-driven nature of MVP voting. Despite winning the award, Allen finished behind both Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow in overall PFF grade and ranked just eighth in PFF WAR.
While his 82.9 passing grade ranked ninth among qualifying quarterbacks, his true differentiator came on the ground. Allen earned a 94.4 rushing grade — the highest ever recorded by a quarterback in the PFF era — a distinction he has now achieved three times in his career.
If he can elevate his passing numbers back to the levels of 2022 (85.1) and 2023 (86.4) while maintaining his dominant rushing impact, Allen will be well-positioned to contend for back-to-back MVP honors.
QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+650)
Although Joe Burrow finished just fourth in MVP voting — earning no first-place votes and only one second-place selection — there’s a strong case that his impact merited far more recognition, even without a playoff berth.
With the Bengals struggling defensively, many of their games turned into shootouts, placing a heavy burden on Burrow to carry the offense. He led the NFL in dropbacks (725) yet maintained elite efficiency, finishing the regular season with a league-best 93.0 PFF passing grade, the eighth-highest ever recorded in the PFF era.
Per PFF’s WAR metric, no player in the NFL accounted for more wins than Burrow (4.84), and should he rise to the occasion again — while also making the playoffs — it would be difficult to deny him his first MVP trophy.
Sleepers
QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (+850)
The reigning 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year has a prime opportunity to elevate his profile even further in 2025, with a chance to join Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson as recent quarterbacks who captured MVP honors in just their second NFL season.
Daniels was electric in his debut campaign, delivering one of the best rookie seasons PFF has ever graded. His 89.6 overall PFF grade ranked top five among all qualifying quarterbacks in 2024 and stands as the second-highest ever recorded by a first-year passer.
With name recognition, elite tools, and an improved supporting cast heading into 2025, the ceiling is sky-high for Daniels — and for a Commanders team trending in the right direction.
QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (+2000)
Although Herbert’s MVP buzz had cooled entering 2024, he reminded everyone why he remains one of the NFL’s premier franchise quarterbacks. And with improved talent around him in 2025, he’s poised to reaffirm his elite status.
Despite a limited supporting cast last season, Herbert delivered the highest overall PFF grade of his career (91.7), including a 90.8 passing grade that ranked third in the NFL. He also finished with the third-highest WAR among quarterbacks. Impressively, Herbert recorded three of the 15 highest-graded passing performances of the season, each above a 91.0, the only quarterback to do so in 2024.
Five seasons in, Herbert may just be entering his prime, and at this price, the value is hard to ignore.
Longshot
RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (+5000)
It’s been more than a decade since a running back last claimed NFL MVP honors — Adrian Peterson in 2012 — but Saquon Barkley came closer than most in 2024, finishing third in the voting.
Barkley became just the ninth player in league history to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards, yet, like Derrick Henry in 2020, even that milestone wasn’t enough to break the award’s quarterback stronghold. In today’s NFL, it would take a truly historic achievement to shift the narrative. No running back has ever reached 2,000 yards twice — let alone in consecutive seasons — but if Barkley were to pull it off, that could be the catalyst to finally sway voters.
Despite the uphill battle, Barkley holds shorter MVP odds than many quarterbacks, making him a compelling longshot worth a speculative wager.
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