Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.
While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.
Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle.
Matchup Angle: More perfectly blocked runs spark the explosive Miami Dolphins rushing attack
• While markets are certainly well aware of the cold weather that has been forecast and the Chiefs' recent struggles against the run, there might still be value in betting on this Dolphins rush attack.
• How? Let us turn to a 2021 PFF study that outlined the effects of perfectly blocked runs for NFL offenses and described how perfectly blocked runs are the most effective play for an NFL offense.
• In the chart above, we can see that the Chiefs have struggled to force run-blocking mistakes, as 36% of the rushes they've faced have been perfectly blocked.
• Miami has struggled to generate perfectly blocked runs, but their offensive line is now healthier and the matchup favorable, so the base rates figure to be ever so slightly higher.
• While we might only be projecting a few more perfectly blocked plays than average, that could be all the difference, given the explosiveness of De'Von Achane and the rest of the Dolphins' rushing attack.
• While it's a small sample, few adjectives can truly describe how dominant Achane has been on perfectly blocked runs. And though he is unlikely to maintain this rate of play, its direction contains signal, considering Achane’s skill set and situation in the Miami offense.
• From a betting perspective, this angle suggests the Dolphins are far more likely to break off an explosive rush in this game than their base rate would suggest. And it might take only a few explosive rushes for Achane to put up some gaudy numbers.
Bets to target: Achane's alt rushing yards are an appealing bet, as are same-game parlays that target the under on his carry total and the over on his rushing yards total (playing the negative correlation). Achane's alt rush yards parlayed with a Kansas City win is also an appealing stack.
Matchup Angle: The Green Bay Packers offense mitigates the quick pressure from the Dallas Cowboys defense
• For the third straight year, the Cowboys have been terrific at generating quick pressure (pressure generated in under 2.5 seconds), leading the NFL in that metric by a wide margin.
• But as good as the Cowboys have been at generating quick pressure, the Packers offense has done a terrific job mitigating the same, having allowed the fewest quick QB pressures over the regular season.
• Without the ability to generate pressure, the Cowboys defense has allowed receivers to gain separation at one of the highest rates in the league.
• Over the regular season as a whole, the Cowboys defense allowed the fifth-fewest expected points added (EPA) in the NFL. That mark drops to exactly average when they've been unable to generate quick pressure, with the team ranking bottom-10 in yards allowed per play and explosive play rate allowed on those plays.
• In other words, Dallas relies on the ability to generate pressure. If the Packers can continue to block and scheme away from quick pressure — as they have all season — this matchup is a sneakily a good one for Jordan Love and the Packers.
Bets to target: I’ll be betting on Love’s passing props and the Packers team total, building some same-game parlays with Love and the Packers winning through the air.
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