• Trenton Irwin in line for a big game? We will see more of Irwin again with Tee Higgins out of the lineup with a hamstring injury. In the two games without Higgins, Irwin has caught 12 passes for 114 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals will have to throw the ball a lot to win this game, and Irwin should see upwards of six targets on Thursday.
• The under is in play for TNF: These are two of the better offenses in the NFL, but expect this to be a physical AFC North matchup. The Bengals aren’t as dangerous with Higgins out of the lineup, and the Ravens could be without both starting offensive tackles. Take the under in this game, with both teams likely to score less than 21 points.
• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: Bengals LT Orlando Brown Jr. vs. Ravens EDGE Odafe Oweh
Brown has not played well over the last few weeks, and it's greatly hindered the offense. He’s off to the worst start of his career (60.9), and his 52.7 run-block grade is among the worst in the NFL. Brown will take on two extremely athletic edge rushers in Odafe Oweh and Jadeveon Clowney, who could give him a lot of problems in the run game.
Fantasy breakout: Bengals WR Trenton Irwin
We will see more of Irwin again with Tee Higgins out of the lineup with a hamstring injury. In the two games without Higgins, Irwin has caught 12 passes for 114 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals will have to throw the ball a lot to win this game, and Irwin should see upwards of six targets on Thursday.
Favorite bet: Under 46 points (-110)
These are two of the better offenses in the NFL, but expect this to be a physical AFC North matchup. The Bengals aren’t as dangerous with Higgins out of the lineup, and the Ravens could be without both starting offensive tackles. Take the under in this game, with both teams likely to score less than 21 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (-2)
Matchup to watch: Browns RT Dawand Jones vs. Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt
Jones missed the Week 10 game against the Ravens due to an injury, but he should be able to return to the lineup this week. And the Browns will need him with Watt coming to town. Jones held his own in the previous matchup, but this battle heavily favors the Steelers. Look for Watt to create two or three splash plays against the rookie offensive tackle in Week 11.
Fantasy breakout: WR DIONTAE JOHNSON
The Packers held Johnson in check in Week 10, but expect him to see a more prominent role in the offense against the Browns. Denzel Ward (neck) seems very questionable to play, which is great news for Johnson. Look for the Steelers to lean on Johnson to carry the offense against the good secondary of the Browns.
Favorite bet: Steelers +2
The Steelers won this matchup earlier in the year and seem to have the Browns' number. Pittsburgh could easily win this game outright, so getting them +2 is a steal. With injuries at both tackle spots, the Browns aren't going to be able to protect rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson in what will be his second career start. That is a recipe for disaster for the Browns at home. Take the Steelers +2 with confidence in this AFC North showdown.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (-9)
Matchup to watch: Lions RT Penei Sewell vs. Bears EDGE Montez Sweat
Sweat has racked up 10 total pressures in two games with the Bears. He's been exactly what the team hoped for when they traded a 2024 second-round pick to acquire him. But he’ll have a tough matchup in Week 11, facing one of the NFL’s top right tackles. Sewell has been dominant in Year 3, earning an overall grade of 84.8. This is best-on-best in Week 11, and both sides have to feel great about where each player is trending after this season.
Fantasy breakout: Bears QB Justin Fields
Fields is expected to start after missing the last month with a thumb injury. While there might be some concern about starting him in his first game back from injury, his legs alone make him worthy of a spot in your lineup. The Lions allowed 38 points to the Chargers and were gashed by the Ravens a week ago. Start Fields with confidence in Week 11.
Favorite bet: Lions -9
It’s always a little risky to bet on the spread when it comes to divisional games, but the Lions are just a bad matchup for the Bears. Detroit should be able to score at will, especially with this game being at home. Take the Lions in this game and expect their offense to score 30-plus points.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Green Bay Packers
Matchup to watch: Packers RT Zach Tom vs. Chargers edge Joey Bosa
The Packers left Tom on an island against T.J. Watt last weekend, and he certainly held his own. He did not allow a sack and surrendered just one QB hit. He’s quickly ascending into one of the better right tackles in the NFL but will have another tough matchup this weekend against Bosa. The Chargers hope to get more from Bosa, who was held to just one pressure against the Lions. If the Chargers want to take care of business on the road this weekend, they will need more from their elite edge defenders.
Fantasy breakout: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler
The Packers allowed over 200 yards rushing to Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris a week ago. Their run defense continues to be a significant problem, which puts Ekeler in a great position going into this game. Can Ekeler find the same type of success on the ground? That remains to be seen, but this is a smash spot for him going into Week 11.
Favorite bet: Over 44
Both defenses had a lot of problems last weekend, and nothing should change in Week 11. While this game won't turn into a shootout, it's fair to expect both teams to score 20-plus points on Sunday. This game sets up well for Justin Herbert and Jordan Love to have big games.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins (-11)
Matchup to watch: Dolphins RT Austin Jackson vs. Raiders EDGE Maxx Crosby
If the Raiders want any chance of upsetting the Dolphins, they'll need a massive game from Crosby. Luckily, he has a very favorable matchup against Jackson. Crosby will play 98% (or more) of the defensive snaps this week and should be able to create consistent pressure. But will that be enough? Probably not, but he is in line for a massive game in Week 11.
Fantasy breakout: Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert
The expectation is that De’Von Achane could return to the field this week, but don’t let that scare you away from starting Mostert. The Raiders have struggled to stop opposing run games this season and haven't seen anything like the speed of the Dolphins yet. Mostert should have over 100 yards rushing and get into the end zone at least once on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Dolphins -11
The Raiders have been a fun story over the last few weeks, but it helps that they’ve played the Giants and the Jets, who just so happen to have two of the worst offenses in the league. The Raiders lack speed on defense, especially at linebacker and cornerback. Miami should be able to score 30-plus points with ease, especially coming off a bye week. Take the Dolphins to win and cover at home on Sunday.
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders (-10)
Matchup to watch: Commanders C Tyler Larsen vs. Giants DI Dexter Lawrence
Lawrence is quickly becoming must-see TV each weekend. He is the highest-graded defensive tackle (92.7) in the NFL and can destroy offensive lines. He leads all defensive tackles in pressures this season and has the second-highest run-defense grade (86.9) in the NFL. He should have a field day against this offensive line in Week 11.
Fantasy breakout: Commanders WR Jahan Dotson
Dotson was shut out against the Seahawks in Week 10, but this is a fantastic spot for him against the Giants. The Giants allowed over 400 passing yards to the Cowboys last week and had several cornerbacks leave the game with injuries. If there was ever a week for Dotson to put up a big performance, it’s this week against the Giants.
Favorite bet: Over 37
Sam Howell leads the NFL in passing yards, and this Washington team can certainly put up points. They are facing a defense that allowed 49 points to the Cowboys in Week 10. Expect the Commanders to score 27-plus on Sunday, allowing the over to hit easily.
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Matchup to watch: Cowboys LT Tyron Smith vs. Panthers EDGE Brian Burns
Smith is back to being one of the top left tackles in the NFL. He has not allowed a pressure over the last two games and has not surrendered a QB hit all season long. Burns will likely return this week after suffering a concussion in Week 9. His speed and athleticism could give Smith some problems, but this should be a fantastic battle on the blindside.
Fantasy breakout: Cowboys RB Tony Pollard
Pollard hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1 and has not rushed for more than 55 yards since Week 3. But the Cowboys are determined to get him going. Pollard has looked better and fresher over the last few weeks, so it’s only a matter of time before he has a big game.
Favorite bet: Under 42 (-110)
The Panthers have one of the NFL's worst offenses, and now the Dallas Cowboys come to town. Look for the Cowboys to hold the Panthers in check, but don't be surprised if Carolina has a good game plan on Sunday. The Cowboys are playing on the road at 1 p.m. ET, something they aren't used to doing. And with Jaycee Horn (hamstring) likely returning to the field, expect the Panthers to hold their own against the Cowboys' high-flying offense.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
Matchup to watch: Titans RT Chris Hubbard vs. Jaguars EDGE Travon Walker
Walker has done an excellent job of racking up the pressures over the last month, posting five straight games with four-plus pressures. He has played a ton of snaps during that time, and the Jaguars need him to be more efficient. But this should be a favorable matchup for him on Sunday against Hubbard. Look for Walker to have a strong performance in this AFC South showdown.
Fantasy breakout: Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley
It’s now or never for Calvin Ridley. He’s facing one of the least talented secondaries in the NFL at home. If Ridley can’t get going this week, there will be no reason to trust him going forward. The Jaguars need Ridley to be a playmaker down the field, especially with Zay Jones’ status up in the air. Look for Trevor Lawrence to try to get Ridley the ball early and often on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Over 40
The Jaguars couldn't get their offense off the ground against the 49ers but don't expect that to happen on Sunday. Jacksonville should be able to score 24-plus points in this game, allowing the over to hit.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans (-4)
Matchup to watch: Cardinals RT Paris Johnson Jr vs. Cardinals EDGE Will Anderson
The Cardinals traded the No. 3 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Texans to move up to select Anderson. The Cardinals then traded back up to No. 6 to select Johnson, and now they will face off against one another on Sunday. Anderson hasn't racked up a ton of sacks yet, but he's been an excellent addition for the Texans. Look for him to have the advantage in this matchup in Week 11.
Fantasy breakout: Cardinals TE Trey McBride
Only a few tight ends in the league should be started over McBride right now. He’s recorded 28 targets over the last three games, turning that into 248 yards and a touchdown. With Kyler Murray back under center, that role and his touchdown upside should continue. Be sure to leave McBride in your lineups this week against the Texans.
Favorite bet: Cardinals +4
The Texans have gotten a ton of hype this week and deserve it. A win on the road in Cincinnati is certainly worth getting excited about. But the value this week is on the Cardinals, especially with Kyler Murray under center. He looked good in his first start and should only play better. Expect the Cardinals to keep this game close in Houston on Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers LT Tristan Wirfs vs. 49ers EDGE Chase Young
Wirfs transitioned to left tackle this season, which has worked well for Tampa Bay. But he will have a tough assignment in Week 11 with Chase Young and Randy Gregory expected to play on that left side. Young looked great in his first game with the 49ers, but this will be a real test for him facing a former Big Ten opponent in Wirfs.
Fantasy breakout:49ers TE George Kittle
Kittle usually doesn't produce a ton when Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are on the field, but this matchup is too good to pass up. The Buccaneers struggle to cover tight ends, as they were lit up by Dalton Schultz in Week 9. Kittle should see a ton of targets against the smaller secondary of the Buccaneers in Week 11.
Favorite bet: Over 41.5
The offense for the 49ers is clicking again, and that shouldn’t be a surprise with the return of Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel. They are a threat to score 30-plus points in any single game and should be able to do so on Sunday against the Buccaneers.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (-7)
Matchup to watch: Bills WR Stefon Diggs vs. Jets CB D.J. Reed
We probably won’t see a ton of Stefon Diggs vs. Sauce Gardner, but that doesn’t mean Diggs will have a favorable matchup. Reed is the fourth highest-graded (84.9) cornerback in the NFL this season, just barely out-grading Gardner. Diggs will have difficulty creating separation against either cornerback, but expect him to find a way to be productive on Sunday.
Fantasy breakout: Bills RB James Cook
The Bills figured out something with Cook on Monday night. Their offense just works a lot better when he touches the ball. Yes, the fumbles can be maddening. But the Bills need someone else to step up other than Diggs. The Jets are outstanding against the run, but look for Cook to get a lot of work as a pass catcher in Week 11.
Favorite bet: Under 40 (-110)
Zach Wilson has played some of the best games of his career against the Bills, but don’t expect that to be the case on Sunday. New York’s offense is in a terrible spot right now, and the same can be said for the Bills. Buffalo just fired Ken Dorsey on Tuesday, which could mean some struggles with Joe Brady now in charge. Expect a 20-16 type of game in Buffalo, with the under ultimately hitting.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (-1)
Matchup to watch: Rams WR Cooper Kupp vs. Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon
We were robbed of this matchup in Week 1, with both players missing that contest due to injury. But Kupp is fully healthy now, and Witherspoon might be the best slot cornerback in the NFL. The winner of this matchup will likely determine the outcome.
Fantasy breakout: Seahawks WR DK Metcalf
Metcalf has had several big games against the Rams over the last few years, including a nice performance in Week 1. With the Rams still struggling to find competent QB play, this is a matchup where Metcalf should take over. Expect him to total over 60 yards and get into the end zone at least once on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Seahawks +1
The Rams won the first contest, 30-13 in Seattle. But look for the Seahawks to get revenge here in Week 11. Their offense looked much better against the Commanders, and they will be facing Matthew Stafford, who is coming off a thumb injury. In typical NFC West fashion, expect the game to be close. But look for the Seahawks to ultimately get the win.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Matchup to watch: Vikings LT Christian Darrisaw vs. Broncos EDGE Baron Browning
There are a lot of elite left tackles in the NFL right now, but none are playing better than Darrisaw. He is the highest-graded offensive tackle in the league with dominant grades as a run-blocker and a pass protector. He'll be matched against Baron Browning in Week 11 in a matchup that heavily favors the Vikings.
Fantasy breakout: Broncos WR Courtland Sutton
Sutton has scored a touchdown in four straight games, with 20 receptions during that span. Russell Wilson is finally starting to trust him, and he has developed into the No. 1 receiver that the Broncos have desperately needed. Against the Vikings, expect Sutton to have another strong performance on Sunday Night Football.
Favorite bet: Broncos -2.5
The Josh Dobbs era in Minnesota has been a ton of fun, but the Broncos have been playing excellently on defense over the last few games. Plus, Russell Wilson is playing exceptionally well with Sean Payton. Expect this game to be close, but for the Broncos to win and cover at home in primetime.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Matchup to watch: Chiefs RT Jawaan Taylor vs. Eagles EDGE Haason Reddick
The tackle play for the Chiefs has been a major problem all season, with both Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor posting sub-60.0 grades. The Eagles are crazy deep on the defensive line, which sets up well for Reddick to have a huge game. Look for him and Josh Sweat to get after Patrick Mahomes early and often on Monday.
Fantasy breakout: Chiefs WR Rashee Rice
The secondary for the Eagles continues to give them problems, especially when they face good slot receivers. Rice has seen his role in the offense grow over the last month, and it should continue after the bye week. He should see quite a few high-leverage targets in this game on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Eagles +2.5
The Eagles are better at nearly every position outside of quarterback. Their roster is better than it was during their Super Bowl matchup, while the Chiefs are worst at wide receiver and on the offensive line. Expect this game to be close, but for the Eagles to take care of business on the road coming out of a bye.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.