• A huge game for the Jaguars and Texans: This is a massive game for both teams, as the winner will be in first place in the AFC South. But the Jaguars have more talent on defense and should be able to contain C.J. Stroud with their pass rush. Expect this game to be close but for the Jaguars to ultimately win.
• Breakout for Jerome Ford? The Broncos have struggled against the run over the last few weeks, allowing big games to James Cook (Bills) and Ty Chandler (Vikings). The Browns will want to establish the run, and Ford is still their best running back. Look for him to see 14-plus touches and get into the end zone in Week 12.
• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (PK)
Matchup to watch: Falcons WR Drake London vs. Saints CB Paulson Adebo
One of the biggest surprises this season has been the play of Adebo. He is the second-highest-graded cornerback in the NFL heading into Week 12 and has been a lock-down defender. He’ll see a lot of London on Sunday, who has gone over 80 receiving yards just once this season. This is a tough matchup for Atlanta, and it might be one they want to avoid altogether.
Fantasy breakout: Saints WR Rashid Shaheed
Michael Thomas was placed on the injured reserve list (knee) earlier this week, opening the door for more targets for Shaheed. He's been one of the most explosive receivers in the NFL this season, averaging nearly 17 yards per catch. All he needs is one big reception to be flex-worthy in Week 12 — and expect him to get it.
Favorite bet: Saints PK
Derek Carr was recently cleared from the NFL's concussion protocol, but it might not matter who is at quarterback on Sunday, as the Saints have the more talented roster. Take the Saints to win in Week 12 and increase their lead in the NFC South.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Matchup to watch: Bengals LT Orlando Brown Jr. vs. Steelers EDGE Alex Highsmith
Highsmith ranks top-20 at the position in total pressures (43) and might be the most underrated edge rusher in the NFL right now. He'll see Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. on Sunday, who has struggled to a 63.6 PFF grade in his first season with Cincinnati. If the Bengals want any chance on offense, they'll need Brown to win this matchup.
Fantasy breakout: Steelers WR Diontae Johnson
With Matt Canada gone, will the Steelers finally unleash their offense? One player who should get going is Diontae Johnson, who has been limited to three catches for 33 yards over the last two weeks. Look for new OC Mike Sullivan to get Johnson involved early in this AFC North battle.
Favorite bet: Steelers -1
The Bengals struggled to score points on offense with Joe Burrow under center. Now, they’ll have Jake Browning making his first NFL start against one of the league’s top defenses. Expect the Steelers to force several turnovers and finally outgain their opponents on offense.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: Titans RG Daniel Brunskill vs. Panthers DT Derrick Brown
Brown put on a huge performance against Cowboys right guard Zack Martin in Week 11, tossing him out of the play on multiple occasions. The Titans will want to double Brown early and often, as he can single-handedly destroy run games.
Fantasy breakout: Titans WR Treylon Burks
Burks has not played since suffering a concussion against the Steelers in Week 9, but he is expected to return in Week 12 to face the Panthers. This sets up for a big game for Burks, with the Panthers likely missing several starting cornerbacks due to injury. It’s been quite a struggle for Burks in Year 2, but this is a good spot for him.
Favorite bet: Panthers +3.5
The Titans have struggled on offense in the last two weeks with Will Levis under center. They may have more luck against the Panthers, but they are giving too many points here. Take the Panthers +3.5 and expect them to keep this game close in this rookie quarterback battle.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers RG Cody Mauch vs. Colts DT DeForest Buckner
The Buccaneers hoped to get more from Mauch in Year 1, as he's been their lowest-graded offensive lineman. He's got the toughest matchup in Week 12, as he is set to face All-Pro interior lineman DeForest Buckner. Look for the Buccaneers to give Mauch a lot of help in order to prevent Buckner from destroying their offensive game plan.
Fantasy breakout: Buccaneers TE Cade Otton
Otton has become more involved in the passing attack over the last month, seeing 29 targets in his previous five games. The Colts have struggled to stop tight ends this season, and Otton should see a lot of work here in Week 12. He is a good option at tight end this week, especially considering the recent release of Shaquille Leonard.
Favorite bet: Buccaneers +2.5
The Buccaneers have been competitive in most games this season, and their offensive line has done an excellent job of protecting Baker Mayfield. Mayfield should be able to have success against the Colts' pass defense, especially with all of his weapons.
New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. New York Giants
Matchup To Watch: Patriots LT Trent Brown vs. Giants edge defender Kayvon Thibodeaux
Brown is the eighth-highest-graded tackle in the NFL entering Week 12, and he has been arguably the Patriots' best offensive player this season. He is expected to return to the lineup in Week 12 and will see Thiobdeaux, who has already recorded 11 sacks. This is best-on-best for the Patriots and Giants on Sunday.
Fantasy breakout: Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson
The Giants are running out of playmakers on offense, with Darius Slayton getting injured in Week 11. This might be the week the Giants feature Robinson, who has been dynamic anytime he’s touched the ball. Robinson has gotten at least four looks (targets and touches) in three straight games, and his usage should only grow.
Favorite bet: Giants +3.5
These are two of the worst teams in the NFL, yet the Patriots are getting 3.5 points on the road. The Giants are just coming off an impressive victory against the Commanders in Week 11, while the Patriots were highly disappointing against the Colts in Week 10. Take the Giants and the points in this matchup.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) vs. Houston Texans
Matchup to watch: Texans RT George Fant vs. Jaguars edge defender Travon Walker
Walker was highly disappointing in Week 11, recording just one pressure on 15 pass-rush snaps. He's done a better job creating consistent pressure this year, but last Sunday was a major disappointment. Look for him to bounce back against Fant, who ranks 29th at the position in pass-blocking grade through Week 11.
Fantasy breakout: Texans TE Dalton Schultz
Tank Dell was the clear winner for the Texans in Week 11, racking up 149 yards and a touchdown. This week, Schultz figures to be the target leader in the offense. The Jaguars have two good coverage linebackers, but the Texans like to utilize Schultz all over the field and get him the football on the move. Look for Schultz to see double-digit targets against Jacksonville on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Jaguars -1.5
This is a massive game for both teams, as the winner will be in first place in the AFC South. But the Jaguars have more talent on defense and should be able to contain C.J. Stroud with their pass rush. Expect this game to be close but for the Jaguars to ultimately win.
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Matchup to watch: Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Browns CB Martin Emerson Jr.
Sutton has become Russell Wilson‘s favorite target over the last few games and has gotten into the end zone in five straight games. He’ll have a tough matchup in Week 12 with Emerson, who has fantastic size and length. Denver needs Sutton to have a big game if they want to put up points on the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL.
Fantasy breakout: Browns RB Jerome Ford
The Broncos have struggled against the run over the last few weeks, allowing big games to James Cook (Bills) and Ty Chandler (Vikings). The Browns will want to establish the run, and Ford is still their best running back. Look for him to see 14-plus touches and get into the end zone in Week 12.
Favorite bet: Broncos -2.5
The Broncos have had incredible turnover luck over the last three weeks, and it’s hard to imagine that it will continue. At the same time, they are facing Dorian Thompson-Robinson at home in his third career start. Expect this to be a low-scoring game, with the Broncos winning and covering.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals (PK)
Matchup to watch: Rams RT Rob Havenstein vs. Cardinals edge defender Zaven Collins
The move to the edge has saved the career of Zaven Collins, who now ranks seventh at his position in run-defense grade. He has a big matchup ahead of him with Rob Havenstein, the 12th-highest-graded run-blocker at tackle. This is best-on-best for the Rams and Cardinals on Sunday, and it should be fantastic to watch.
FANTASY BREAKOUT: Cardinals WR Greg Dortch
Before Week 11, Dortch had just one reception for 2 yards on the season. But he broke out against the Texans in Week 11, catching six passes for 76 yards. Look for the Cardinals to lean on him even more in Week 12, as he has a connection with Kyler Murray.
Favorite bet: Rams PK
The Rams will likely be without Cooper Kupp in Week 12, but that shouldn't scare you off from betting on Los Angeles. Their offense can still be dangerous with Matthew Stafford, and Kyren Williams‘s return should help. Expect this to be a highly competitive NFC West matchup, with the Rams coming out on top.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Matchup to watch: Chiefs RT Jawaan Taylor vs. Raiders EDGE Maxx Crosby
If the Raiders want to have any chance of winning this game, they are going to need a massive performance from Maxx Crosby. The good news is that Crosby usually dominates against the Chiefs and has an even more favorable matchup than usual. Look for Crosby to record eight-plus pressures in this matchup and harass Patrick Mahomes in the pocket.
Fantasy breakout: Chiefs WR Rashee Rice
The Eagles did a good job of keeping Rice in check in Week 11, allowing him to catch just four passes for 42 yards. But the Chiefs need to do a better job of getting him involved in the offense earlier. He’s already their best receiver and is the key to unlocking the offense. Against a suspect secondary, look for Rice to get back on track in Week 12.
Favorite bet: Chiefs -9
The Chiefs have the worst second-half offense in the NFL, but the Raiders have created just 33 explosive plays all season. Even if the Chiefs struggle on offense again, they should be able to cover the 9-point spread with the Raiders unable to put points up on the board. Look for the Chiefs to bounce back in a big way in this AFC West matchup.
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Matchup to watch: Bills WR Stefon Diggs vs. Eagles CB Darius Slay
If the Bills are going to upset the Eagles on the road, they will need a big day from their passing attack. And that means a lot of Stefon Diggs, who has been relatively quiet over the last few weeks. Diggs will see a ton of Slay, the No. 1 cornerback for the Eagles. Look for Diggs to be involved early and often on Sunday.
Fantasy breakout: Bills TE Dalton Kincaid
At this point, Kincaid is a must-start every week moving forward. After a slow start to the season, he now has at least five receptions in each of his last five games. We are still waiting for his efficiency to increase, but his overall usage has been fantastic. He should have an excellent game on Sunday against some average linebackers and slot defenders.
Favorite bet: Eagles -3
The Eagles are at home and are just a field-goal favorite. They are a must-bet team every time that happens, especially against the Bills, who are incredibly banged up on defense. Look for Philadelphia to have a lot of success on the ground in this matchup and control the line of scrimmage.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Matchup to watch: Ravens RT Morgan Moses vs. Chargers EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu
With Joey Bosa (foot) out, the Chargers will turn to rookie edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu to play more snaps with the starters. He has earned a 78.5 run-defense grade, but can he create pressure against one of the NFL’s top right tackles? This should be a fun one to watch.
FANTASY BREAKOUT: Ravens TE Isaiah Likely
With Mark Andrews (ankle) out for the season due to an ankle injury, Isaiah Likely is a must-start tight end moving forward. He should have a huge game in Week 12 against the Chargers, especially with the Los Angeles linebackers struggling in coverage. Start Likely with confidence on Sunday Night Football.
Favorite bet: Chargers +3.5
This is likely the last stand for Chargers head coach Brandon Staley. With a record of 4-6, the Chargers would probably be out of the playoff picture in the AFC. Staley’s job is on the line, and his team is at home. Take the Chargers to keep things close against the Ravens in Week 12.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: Bears RT Darnell Wright vs. Vikings EDGE Danielle Hunter
Wright has had an up-and-down rookie season for the Bears. He’s had his moments, but top-end rushers have given him problems this season. Up next is Danielle Hunter, who leads the NFL in tackles for loss or no gain (16) and is second in sacks (12). It could be a long day at the office for the rookie offensive tackle from Tennessee in prime time.
Fantasy breakout: Bears WR D.J. Moore
Now that Justin Fields is back in the lineup, Moore is one of the best fantasy plays of the week. Moore caught seven passes for 97 yards and a score against Detroit, and this is just as good a matchup. Start Moore with confidence on Monday Night Football.
Favorite bet: Bears +3.5
Justin Fields looked really good in his first start back from his thumb injury, and it stands to reason that he will be even better in Week 12. Take the Vikings to win but expect the Bears to keep things close with a defense that has been much improved in the second half of the season.
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