College Football Playoff National Championship Preview: Matchups to watch and predictions for Notre Dame-Ohio State

• How much man coverage will Notre Dame play?: The Fighting Irish run man coverage at one of the highest rates in the country, but that can be very dangerous considering how talented Ohio State’s receivers are.

• Can Ohio State’s run defense contain Notre Dame’s dangerous ground game?: The Fighting Irish have one of the best rushing attacks in college football but are facing a Buckeye defense that has stonewalled opposing offenses this season.

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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

The inaugural 12-team playoff, the biggest in the sport’s history, is now down to two. No. 7 Notre Dame will take on No. 8 Ohio State in Atlanta for the national championship. 

These two programs are all about resiliency. Many left the Fighting Irish for dead after their Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois, as another defeat would all but kill Notre Dame’s hopes of even making the 12-team field. Marcus Freeman’s squad responded with 13 straight victories to clinch a spot in a national championship game for the first time since 2012. If they win, it would mark the Fighting Irish’s first title in 36 years, when Freeman was two years old.

The Buckeyes entered the season with arguably the most talented roster in college football but endured some bumps along the road to Atlanta, losing to Oregon in Eugene before suffering a shocking defeat at the hands of arch-rival Michigan at home in Columbus in the regular season finale. With Ryan Day seemingly coaching for his job, his team discarded Tennessee, Oregon and Texas with an average margin of victory of 20 points. Ohio State is back in the national championship game for the first time since the COVID 2020 season and is searching for its first national title since the College Football Playoff’s inception in 2014, exactly 10 years ago.

We’ve decided to make our previews more expansive for the playoff. We’ll be diving into two matchups to watch for each offense in this game, one for the passing game and one for the running game. And of course, we’ll be predicting who will ultimately be hoisting the national title as well. 

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (Monday at 7:30 PM EST on ESPN)

Notre Dame’s pass game against Ohio State’s pass defense (Max): Can the Fighting Irish’s offensive line hold up against a standard rush to allow Riley Leonard to attack the sidelines?

Notre Dame’s ability to keep Riley Leonard clean when he isn’t blitzed will likely determine how much success it finds throwing the football. That’s because there’s a pretty massive split between Leonard’s passing grades when he’s kept clean/under pressure and when he’s blitzed/not blitzed.

Riley Leonard’s passing grades by situation:

Leonard is forced to be far more precise against a standard rush with more defenders in coverage instead of being able to attack one-on-one matchups as he prefers. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State’s defense has been pretty content to sit back with just a four-man rush, sending a blitz at the 86th-highest rate in the country (32.9%). The Buckeyes can do so because their defensive line is dominant. Even with a low blitz rate, Ohio State is third in America with a 40.9% pressure rate. 

While the Fighting Irish’s offensive line has been terrific in the run game (17th in run-blocking grade), it has far more issues in pass protection. Notre Dame is just 82nd in team pass-blocking grade (66.6) and 61st in pass-blocking grade when there isn’t a blitz. 

The matchup to watch in particular is the Buckeye edge defenders (Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau) against the Fighting Irish offensive tackles (Anthonie Knapp and Aamil Wagner). Sawyer and Tuimoloau combined have the sixth-best pass-rushing grade among FBS edge pairings while Knapp and Wagner are just 92nd in pass-blocking grade.

While protecting Leonard is priority No. 1 for Notre Dame’s aerial attack, the second order of business should be trying to attack the Buckeyes down the sidelines. If there’s one weakness in Ohio State’s defense, it’s cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun. The Buckeyes are second in team defense grade on throws inside the numbers but just 61st outside the numbers. Of Leonard’s 16 big-time throws this season, 11 have come outside the numbers. An emerging star like sophomore wide receiver Jaden Greathouse could be critical in this game for Notre Dame to have a second dimension offensively.

Notre Dame’s run game against Ohio State’s run defense (Dalton): Notre Dame’s ground attack faces its toughest test yet.

Notre Dame has overcome several tough run defenses this season, including Texas A&M, Louisville, Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State. The challenge of running the football effectively reaches its apex this week as the Fighting Irish face the Buckeyes, who own the nation’s highest run defense grade at 95.1.

In fact, that grade is the highest by any FBS team in run defense since Ohio State’s 2019 squad featured Chase Young and several other NFL prospects. The Buckeyes defense allows just 3.9 yards per carry, less than one yard per carry, and has missed just 13% of its tackle attempts in run defense.

Similar to that 2019 team, the Buckeys' success comes from having a plethora of NFL-caliber talent on the field. Seven of the Buckeyes’ eleven starters own a run defense grade above 82.0 this season. They are one of just four teams, along with Alabama, Oklahoma and SMU, whose defensive line, linebackers, and secondary all rank inside the top 20 FBS teams in run defense grade as a unit. 

Changes to their coverage structure have also forced opponents to funnel runs inside to the teeth of their defense. Meanwhile, safety Caleb Downs has excelled in a heavier box role that allows him to roam between the tackles and stop any play that gets past the first level of the defense.

Normally, we would expect Notre Dame to be up to the task against such a stout run defense, but aside from Jeremiyah Love’s 98-yard touchdown against Indiana, it has struggled to get that aspect of its offense rolling in the postseason. If we remove that one carry, Notre Dame running backs are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry in the playoffs.

Part of those struggles has come about due to difficulties blocking up front, as the Fighting Irish have earned just a 55.5 run-blocking grade in their last three games. They’ve also created just 0.8 yards after contact per attempt. Riley Leonard has been their most productive runner over the past two games, but they need their running backs to create explosive plays. This task will be even more difficult without their starting left tackle, Anthonie Knapp.

Notre Dame’s foundation on offense is its explosive run game. The Fighting Irish face their toughest challenge yet in Ohio State and will need to overcome the struggles they’ve had in the postseason in order to lean into what should be their greatest strength on offense.

Ohio State’s pass game against Notre Dame’s pass defense (Dalton): Can the Fighting Irish continue to dominate in man coverage?

Texas did about as well as one could hope in slowing down Ohio State’s explosive aerial attack. Using a zone-heavy approach that limited Jeremiah Smith to just three yards, the Longhorns forced Will Howard to target other options and work methodically. That approach kept the Longhorns in the game, but Notre Dame’s coverage tendencies are the polar opposite.

The Fighting Irish lead the nation in their usage of Cover-1 as they are arguably the premier man coverage team in college football this season.

Notre Dame man coverage:

Even in star cornerback Benjamin Morrison‘s absence, the Fighting Irish have had other plays in their secondary perform at an elite level. True freshman cornerback Leonard Moore has posted a man coverage grade roughly equivalent to Colorado superstar Travis Hunter. Christian Gray, Jordan Clark and Rod Heard II have all contributed at the other cornerback spots. Standout safeties Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler have played very well all season too.

Due to their immense amount of talent, the Buckeyes don’t see a ton of man coverage, but they perform very well when they do. Will Howard ranks second among qualified FBS quarterbacks in passing grade versus man coverage. Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith’s 89.9 receiving grade against man is the third-best mark in the Power Four. Expect to see him get more downfield chances in this matchup with the contrast in style that Notre Dame uses compared to Texas.

Among the other threats on offense is Emeka Egbuka, whom the Buckeyes do a fantastic job moving around the formation to create optimal matchups. Carnell Tate, the team’s leading receiver against Texas, has also emerged as a legitimate third threat. Running back TreVeyon Henderson has also made several big plays in the passing game down the stretch, including a 75-yard touchdown against the Longhorns.

The biggest reason Notre Dame has been able to make this national championship run has been its ability to shut down opposing wide receivers in man coverage while creating turnovers in the process. If the FIghting can shut down Ohio State in a similar manner, they stand a chance to win a defensive game that is suited to their style of success.

Ohio State’s run game against Notre Dame’s run defense (Max): How will the Fighting Irish defend the Buckeyes’ new gap-heavy scheme?

Ohio State ran a very balanced run scheme during the regular season, 44% of its runs were in a gap-blocking scheme with 48% coming in a zone scheme. Since the loss to Michigan in the regular season finale, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has completely switched it up. During their three games in the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes have called gap runs 69% of the time with only 25% coming in zone. 

A major reason for that is likely that Ohio State is playing with a makeshift offensive line with a couple of stars done for the season in left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin. A gap scheme is a little simpler for both the offensive line and the running back since it’s all about picking a specific hole in a defense and exploiting it, which can help a unit that doesn’t have the chemistry of playing together for an entire season. A zone scheme threatens multiple gaps in a defense and offensive linemen must be able to know which defenders to pass off and which to attack after the ball is snapped, which often requires significant time to nail down, something the Buckeyes don’t have right now. 

Notre Dame has had some issues against gap runs this season, tying for 75th in the FBS with five yards per attempt allowed. The Fighting Irish are also 91st in America with 3.4 yards after contact per attempt allowed on such plays. Their defensive line in particular has had issues in run-defense all year, placing 71st in run-defense grade as a unit. Notre Dame is far better at the second and third levels, as its linebackers/defensive backs combined for the eighth-best run-defense grade in America. 

If the Fighting Irish can slow down Ohio State’s gap-heavy scheme, it could allow Notre Dame to drop more defenders back in coverage. If not, then Notre Dame may have to commit more defenders to the box which is always dangerous considering the Buckeyes have the best receiving corps in America that can take the top off on any play.

Predictions

Max: Ohio State 28, Notre Dame 17

The Buckeyes are finally looking like the best team in the country like their roster indicated they would be, which is why I picked them to win the national championship in the preseason. Ohio State’s defense once again shines as it slows down the Fighting Irish’s rushing attack while Will Howard and company make some big plays against Notre Dame’s defense that often puts its defensive backs on islands. The Buckeyes won the first national championship in the four-team era a decade ago, and they win the first national title of the 12-team era this year. 

Dalton: Ohio State 31, Notre Dame 17

It’s extremely hard to pick against Ohio State with the way the Buckeyes have been playing. Unless Notre Dame runs the ball in a significantly more efficient manner, I think they could have a tough time putting drives together. Notre Dame’s likely path to success is elite coverage and forcing multiple turnovers, but this Buckeyes team carries too much talent and too many obstacles for the Fighting Irish to overcome.