• A record-breaking quarterback class? There is a good chance Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels will be the first three players off the board. There is also more late first-round and early Day 2 talent, so quite a few teams will leave this year’s draft hoping to have found their quarterback for at least the next four years.
• A thin edge class: The 2024 edge defender class figures to be one of the weaker edge classes in recent history. There is a lack of blue-chip talent at the very top of the draft and a fairly thin class behind the Tier 1 prospects.
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With the 2024 NFL Draft set to kick off in just a few hours, it's time to identify the strongest and weakest position groups in the class.
To do this, we'll use PFF's big board and Arif Hasan‘s 2024 consensus big board, which is a compilation of over 100 big boards from draft analysts all over the country.
The consensus board has been proven to be fairly accurate at predicting the NFL draft, with prospects often drafted at similar spots to their ranking on the board. So, by comparing the board ranks of players at a given position to the historical draft allocation to that position, we can get a good sense of whether a certain position group is strong or weak.
Overview of positional strength
We measure the strength of each position in the draft class by the draft capital allocated to that position. To quantify draft capital, we use the PFF WAR draft chart, which assigns a numerical value to every pick. You can find a more detailed explanation of the PFF WAR draft chart here.
We will compare the draft capital allocated to each position over the last eight drafts to the (projected) draft capital allocated to each position in this year’s draft. For this case, we treat a prospect's consensus big board rank as his pick number.
Things will ultimately shake out a little differently when the actual draft starts, but as of now, it’s the natural way to measure the strength of each position in a way that is comparable to the drafts from past years.
Here is the overview of offensive positions:
This is a very good draft for teams in need of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Outside of running back, there isn’t a single position group that is worse than the eight-year average.
Here is the overview of defensive positions:
As the offensive positions are stronger than usual, it is no surprise that almost all defensive positions are weaker than usual. The only exception is this cornerback group. Four or five cornerbacks will likely be selected in the first round, which is right around the eight-year average.
A deeper look can help with draft decisions
The overview is valuable, but we can take an even deeper look to help with potential draft-day decisions.
For example, suppose a team has the 25th overall pick. In that case, they need to know whether a certain position is strong because of the abundance of top-15 talent and a deep Day 2 or because of several late first-round prospects who would likely be available when they are on the clock.
For that reason, we have created charts showing the available talent for each position at each point in the draft. These charts also compare the talent level to the ceiling, floor and average of the past eight drafts.
Quarterback
The chart consists of three lines and three series of points. The blue line (the middle line) describes the average number of quarterbacks taken with the first X selections in the last eight drafts. The green line (the top line) describes the maximum number of quarterbacks taken with the first X selections in the last eight drafts, while the orange line (the bottom line) line describes the minimum number.
For example, the maximum number of quarterbacks taken with the first 15 picks is five, as this occurred two years ago when Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones all came off the board early. The minimum of quarterbacks taken in the first two rounds (first 64 picks) is one, as only Kenny Pickett came off the board early in 2022.
On average, there have been between three and four quarterback selections in the first round.
Basically, the three lines give us an average and a range for the number of players picked through X selections over the past eight drafts.
The points give us the number of players at the position through Rank X on the 2024 big board. In this chart, the yellow squares describe the quarterbacks' board ranks on the PFF big board, and the teal triangles describe the quarterbacks' board ranks on the consensus big board.
We will use the same colors and shapes for all the other positions.
Loosely speaking, we can spot a weak class by the points below the average line and a strong class by the points above the average line.
So, this means the 2024 quarterback class is fairly strong. It includes a quarterback worthy of the first overall pick and several other quarterbacks with top-10 and even top-five talent or potential.
There is a good chance Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels will be the first three players off the board. There is also more late first-round and early Day 2 talent, so quite a few teams will leave this year’s draft hoping to have found their quarterback for at least the next four years.
There is even a small chance that the total number of QB picks from 2018 (when the fourth quarterback was selected 10th overall) and 2021 (when the fifth quarterback was selected 15th overall) will be overtaken this year. This mostly depends on how much the Giants, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders like the second tier of quarterback prospects, namely J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix.
Potentially elite: Offensive tackle and wide receiver
We continue with the wide receiver class, which is shaping up to be another record-breaking class.
We’ve gotten used to seeing a run on wide receivers in the second round, with more than 10 receivers being drafted within the first 64 picks in multiple drafts in recent years.
We expect the same this year, with the difference being that this class is also top-heavy, featuring three blue-chip prospects who are projected to be selected in the top 10: Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze.
Three receivers were picked in the top 10 in 2017, but no other receiver went off the board in the first round, and only three receivers were drafted in the second round that year.
We’ve seen top-heavy classes and deep classes. This class is top-heavy and deep.
According to data from GrindingTheMocks, 13 edge rushers have an average draft position within the first 64 picks. If that transpires, it would beat the previous record for the most edge rushers off the board in the first two rounds over the past eight years (12).
A similar observation can be made for the offensive tackle class. Joe Alt is a sure-fire, blue-chip prospect, but the class is also deep and could produce more Day 1 and Day 2 picks than we’ve seen in any of the last eight drafts.
A very good class: Cornerback
This year’s cornerback class is good in terms of the expected number of players to come off the board over the first two days.
Due to the lack of top-tier prospects — as we had with Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley Jr. two years ago — this class didn’t quite make it into the elite tier.
Top-heavy and thin: Tight end
The 2024 tight end class is headlined by Brock Bowers, a consensus top-10 prospect who will almost certainly be selected within the first 15 picks. Outside of Bowers, Ja’Tavion Sanders looks like a Day 2 prospect in a thin tight end class behind the TE1.
There will be a team that puts all its hopes into Bowers becoming an elite tight end, but this is definitely not a class where many teams will find their new three-down starter.
Average classes: Interior offensive line, running back, interior defensive line
The class of interior offensive linemen looks pretty ordinary compared to other years. There is no blue-chip talent at the very top of the draft, but quite a few teams will try to find new starters late on Thursday and during Day 2.
The same is true for the running back class, as there is no Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs in this class. The first running back will come off the board at some point on Day 2, and we can expect a run on running backs to begin shortly after that.
With the exception of a few perceived elite prospects in recent years, this is mostly how the draft has adjusted to the position.
The class of interior defenders is a bit thin for the first two rounds, but that has been more common than one might think over the last few drafts. So, it could be called a fairly average class compared to other years.
Weak classes: Edge defender, safety, linebacker
The 2024 edge defender class figures to be one of the weaker edge classes in recent history. There is a lack of blue-chip talent at the very top of the draft and a fairly thin class behind the Tier 1 prospects.
Nobody knows what each team's board looks like, but given the gap in the middle of the second round, one could expect the first-round edge rushers to go off the board fairly quickly in the teens because those same teams will face a lack of talent at the edge positions when they are on the clock 32 picks later.
The safety and linebacker classes look even worse, as they lack both blue-chip talent and depth.
Only one or two safeties may come off the board within the first two rounds, compared to the eight-year average of five safeties off the board in the top 64.
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