• A record number of quarterbacks: Six quarterbacks fly off the board within the first 15 picks, which would tie the record for most first-round signal-callers.
• Brock Bowers to the Big Apple: The New York Jets grab tight end Brock Bowers with the No. 10 pick, giving Aaron Rodgers another dangerous weapon.
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We’re nearly two weeks away from the 2024 NFL Draft, and there are still so many unknowns, starting with who the Washington Commanders will select at No. 2.
With close to a fortnight separating us and draft day, here’s how I think the first round will shake out.
You can write this one in Sharpie.
The draft really starts at No. 2, where it seems to be a toss-up between Maye and Jayden Daniels for the Commanders. Maye gets the nod here for having considerably more arm talent than Daniels and having two years of 90.0-plus PFF grades, whereas Daniels has only one.
The Heisman winner’s 94.7 grade in 2023 was the best we’ve seen by an FBS signal-caller in the past three seasons. While Marvin Harrison Jr. is certainly alluring, the Patriots need to find a potential franchise quarterback as they begin a new era with Jerod Mayo as their head coach.
The Cardinals will likely receive plenty of calls from teams looking to move up for J.J. McCarthy, but they stay put here and take a once-in-a-decade type of prospect in Harrison. Not only that, he fills the team’s biggest need following the departures of Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore this offseason.
Projected trade: Vikings receive Pick No. 5; Chargers receive Pick Nos. 11 and 23 and a 2025 third-round pick
The Chargers could follow the Cardinals’ route and take one of the top receivers to address a glaring need, but they’ll instead accumulate more picks as Jim Harbaugh tries to build his roster.
The Vikings trading for the No. 23 pick in March signaled that they were doing so to likely move up and take a quarterback. While J.J. McCarthy has some work to do before he can reach his ceiling, it’s hard to find a better environment for him to flourish than Minnesota. As a bonus, Harbaugh gets to be the one to send his former quarterback to a fantastic situation and make him a top-five pick.
The Giants desperately need to add talented pass catchers, and one falls into their lap here. Nabers has rare movement skills and was the best receiver in college football this past season. He would immediately become the Giants’ most dangerous offensive threat.
One of Brian Callahan’s first orders of business as the new Titans head coach was to hire his legendary father, Bill, to helm the offensive line. You can bet Bill will be in his son’s ear on draft night to select a franchise left tackle. Tennessee’s tackles in 2023 finished with the second-worst pass-blocking grade in the league.
Alt fits that description to a tee. He has multiple years of elite tape, in addition to being a 99th-percentile athlete, according to Kent Lee Platte’s Relative Athletic Score. He is the best offensive tackle prospect since Penei Sewell.
A record seven offensive players were taken to start the 2021 NFL Draft. There’s a good chance that the 2024 group could tie that mark, as it does in this mock.
Turner has a high ceiling as a pass rusher, something the Falcons have been sorely lacking. Atlanta has ranked outside the top 25 teams in pass-rushing grade in each of the past three seasons.
While the Vikings present the best situation for a rookie quarterback to walk into, their division rivals would be close behind if the draft fell this way.
Chicago would immediately give Caleb Williams one of the best receiver trios in the league — D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Odunze — with a very good tight end in Cole Kmet to boot.
Even after adding Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses this offseason, it would still make sense for the Jets to select an offensive tackle with this pick, given both players are older and aren’t under contract past this season.
With that said, the Jets’ Super Bowl window is closing rapidly with a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback. Giving him the greatest tight end in college football history would help maximize that window and fix what was the least productive slot receiver room in the league last season.
Projected trade: Chargers receive Pick Nos. 11 and No. 23 and a 2025 third-round pick; Vikings receive Pick No. 5
Jim Harbaugh’s offenses are known to play smash-mouth football, winning through trench dominance. Fuaga is a perfect fit for that philosophy, as his 90.9 run-blocking grade in 2023 was more than four points higher than the next-closest FBS tackle. He also slots in perfectly at right tackle, opposite Rashawn Slater, which is a big need for Los Angeles.
Denver’s quarterback room consists of Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci, making it a massive need heading into the draft. The marriage of Sean Payton and Russell Wilson didn’t work out, partly because Wilson relied so much on playing outside of structure. Bo Nix is nearly the complete opposite as a quarterback who perfectly ran Oregon’s offense the way it was designed.
The 1983 NFL Draft set the record for the most first-round quarterbacks, with six hearing their names called. This class not only has a strong chance of tying that record, but all six could go in the top 15.
Penix has NFL-level arm talent and was one of the best signal-callers in college football in each of the past two seasons.
It’s unclear how much longer standout right tackle Ryan Ramczyk will continue to play as he faces a setback from his knee injury. With Trevor Penning looking questionable at best through two years, the Saints could look to add another first-round tackle here.
While Olu Fashanu isn’t the strongest run blocker, you’d be hard-pressed to find too many tackles as promising as him in pass protection. His 84.4 grade on true pass sets since 2022 ranked in the 93rd percentile among FBS tackles.
DeJean to Indianapolis is one of my favorite fits in this mock draft. The Colts ran zone coverage on 76.9% of their plays last season, far and away the highest rate in the league. A zone-heavy scheme perfectly fits DeJean’s skill set as an athletic, highly instinctual cornerback who is a terrific run defender.
Not to mention, the Colts need help both at cornerback and safety, and DeJean can play both.
The Seahawks finished with the fifth-worst pass-blocking grade in the league last season and lost their starting left guard and starting center in free agency. Fautanu is capable of playing all five positions along the offensive line and should provide a boost in pass protection.
New Seattle offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb was Fautanu’s offensive coordinator at Washington, so there’s also some familiarity there.
The Jaguars released Darious Williams this offseason and replaced him with Ronald Darby. While Darby is a serviceable player, Jacksonville could stand to add another outside cornerback opposite Tyson Campbell.
After finishing as the highest-graded FBS cornerback in each of the past two seasons, Mitchell dominated the Senior Bowl before testing as the most athletic cornerback in the class.
Defensive tackle is arguably the Bengals’ biggest need after losing D.J. Reader in free agency. Newton was incredibly productive over the past two seasons, leading all FBS interior defensive linemen in pressures (102) and run-defense stops (55).
The Rams fielded one of the worst edge defender groups in the league last season, finishing with the third-worst PFF grade at that position (58.2). While Verse is a better fit as a 4-3 defensive end, he has plenty of experience as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He’d also inject some much-needed power into the Rams’ front four following Aaron Donald’s retirement.
The Steelers here spend their first-round pick on an offensive tackle for the second straight year and finally fortify a position at which they’ve struggled to build a foundation for the past few seasons.
Latham has excellent tools for the position and would allow Pittsburgh to flip Broderick Jones over to left tackle while he mans the right side.
After losing Christian Wilkins in free agency, the Dolphins should try to find another defensive tackle early in this draft. Murphy was the best pass-rushing interior defensive lineman college football had to offer in 2023, leading all FBS defensive tackles in pass-rushing grade (91.5), pass-rush win rate (20.5%) and pressure rate (17%).
The Eagles’ disappointing 2023 season can mostly be attributed to coverage woes. They finished with the fifth-worst coverage grade in the league (57.3).
Arnold would add some much-needed youth to Philadelphia’s cornerback room, which features two aging veterans in Darius Slay and James Bradberry. He has top-tier athletic traits for the position and had a major breakout year in 2023, finishing with the fifth-highest PFF grade among Power Five cornerbacks (88.4).
Projected trade: Chargers receive Pick Nos. 11 and No. 23 and a 2025 third-round pick; Vikings receive Pick No. 5
Although the Chargers passed on Malik Nabers by trading back from No. 5, they grab his teammate here. Thomas led the nation in receiving touchdowns (17) this past season and is the ideal vertical threat with his size (6-foot-3, 209 pounds) and speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash).
For the first time in more than a decade, Tyron Smith won't be the Cowboys’ starting left tackle. His departure to the Jets leaves Dallas very vulnerable at tackle, which is why the team would be eager to draft Mims here. While he lacks experience (944 career snaps), he has freakish tools and performed well on that limited workload.
Green Bay’s interior offensive line was the eighth-lowest-graded unit in the league last season, and starting right guard Jon Runyan left in free agency. Powers-Johnson falls into the Packers' lap here and can play either center or guard at a high level. He was the highest-graded center in the nation this past season and ranked third among FBS guards the year before.
Latu has a strong case for EDGE1 in this class but will likely be the third one taken on draft night. His 96.3 grade this past season didn’t just lead all players in the country; it was the highest-graded season from a Power Five player since PFF began charting college football in 2014. Tampa Bay should sprint this card in after releasing Shaquil Barrett this offseason.
After giving Kyler Murray an elite weapon to throw to in Marvin Harrison Jr., the Cardinals can turn their attention to the defensive side of the ball. It makes sense for Arizona to target a cornerback with its second first-round pick, as the team finished with the lowest-graded cornerback unit in 2023
Wiggins needs to add some strength at just 173 pounds, but he’s an elite athlete with excellent length for the position at 6-foot-2.
The Bills desperately need to add viable pass catchers after trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans. Adonai Mitchell has a high ceiling as one of the most athletic receivers in the draft, though he has some work to do to reach his ceiling. There may be no better quarterback to help him do so than Josh Allen.
Even after adding Carlton Davis III and Amik Robertson this offseason, the Lions could stand to improve their cornerback room.
While he’s not an elite athlete like the cornerbacks who went before him, McKinstry still deserves to be in the CB1 conversation. His 91.5 PFF grade from 2022 to 2023 ranked fourth among college football cornerbacks.
After losing three starters in free agency along the offensive line, the Ravens will likely target one with their first-round selection. Graham Barton could be a good fit as someone who can play any of the five positions for Baltimore.
Pass protection was one of the only weaknesses of the 49ers’ offense a year ago, as they tied for 24th in that department. While Guyton still has a ways to go before he can be expected to help fix that problem, he has an incredibly high ceiling. Besides, what better player to learn from than Trent Williams?
The addition of Marquise Brown certainly helped, but the Chiefs could still add more talent at wide receiver. McConkey is a route-running technician with excellent quickness.
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