- In a loaded running back class, Auburn’s Jarquez Hunter is a true sleeper: Hunter’s size and production compare favorably to Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson, who could be selected as high as 20th overall by the Denver Broncos.
- Virginia Tech’s Aeneas Peebles has a draft profile comparable to other recent Day 2 successes: Mississippi’s Walter Nolen is likely to be taken in the first round, but Peebles is a more skilled pass-rusher with similar size concerns.
- 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF's best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated reading time: 11 minutes
Part of drafting the best players is understanding value. Sometimes that involves taking advantage of depth at a position, which involves knowing when the safer prospect is the right prospect. First-round players tend to get selected where they do because of positional need and priority, as well as perceived upside.
In a draft like this year’s, however, we have far fewer players that fit the mold of having “too much upside” to pass up. It is likely to be repeated ad nauseam on every broadcast watched next week, but little separates prospect No. 10 from prospect No. 100 in this class, in particular at the deeper positions like running back, edge defender and interior defenders.
With this in mind, teams need to be able to construct a draft weekend plan that allows them to get the most value out of every pick, and not just their first-rounders. In some cases, that could mean passing on a Day 1 prospect they like in favor of a player of similar talents on Days 2 and 3. By taking advantage of the depth of certain positions, teams can potentially maximize the value of their entire draft class.
Let’s take a look at three quality first-round projections that, despite their obvious talents, should have teams asking themselves: Why draft this prospect here on Day 1, when we could instead take a prospect of similar value on our board on Day 2 or 3?
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Why draft TreVeyon Henderson in the first round when you can take Jarquez Hunter?
TreVeyon Henderson saved his best for last, rushing for 1,010 yards with 32 10-plus-yard runs while earning 4.4 yards after contact. He also made an impact in the passing game, grabbing 26 passes for another 281 yards, including a screen pass in the national semifinal against Texas, where he went 75 yards untouched for the score. He is a silky-smooth athlete who ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash and jumped 38.5 inches in the vertical at the 2025 NFL Scouting Combine.
While he ranks 59th on the PFF big board, he met with the Denver Broncos yesterday and the Pittsburgh Steelers on Tuesday. Those two teams hold picks Nos. 20 and 21 overall, respectively, and there has been growing speculation he could be selected with one of those early picks.
With such a deep class, however, I believe both squads would be better served by selecting a player at a different position with their first-round picks and targeting a different back on Day 2 with a similar style and skill set.
Auburn‘s Jarquez Hunter looks like just such a player, as he is just an inch shorter than Henderson (who measured 5-foot-10) and two pounds heavier at 204, and he ran an almost identical 4.44-second 40-yard dash at the combine.
He is a similarly smooth runner who can make one cut and explode downhill. He put up similar numbers to Henderson – 1,211 rushing yards with an average of 4.1 yards after contact – but there is one critical category in which he holds a considerable edge.
Elusiveness is one of the key stats I look for when trying to project college players to the NFL, and Hunter was superior to Henderson in this regard. Henderson forced 37 missed tackles on 145 carries last year, while Hunter forced 59 on 186 touches. PFF has an overall elusiveness rating that also factors in receiving, and Hunter finished eighth overall this past season, fourth in the draft class. Henderson ranks just 13th in the class in elusiveness.
The point of this comparison is not to claim that Hunter is necessarily the outright superior player, but it’s clear that, at the very least, both could be considered as having similar value depending on which team’s draft board is being viewed. With them being at the very least comparable players, why spend a first-round pick on Henderson when Hunter is more likely to be selected later on Day 2, or as the PFF big board suggests (via his 133rd overall ranking), early Day 3?
Why draft Walter Nolen in the first round when you can take Aeneas Peebles in the third?
Walter Nolen made the most out of his transfer to Mississippi this season, posting a 91.6 run-defense grade for the year, second best in the country to only Michigan’s Mason Graham. He is a bowling ball of a prospect who used his quick first step and power to register six sacks and 35 total pressures. As of this writing, his current odds of being selected in the first round stand at -320 at the DraftKings Sportsbook, meaning he is a heavy favorite to hear his name called in Green Bay a week from today.
While his first step and natural power pop on film, I’m not as sold as some others on his prospects for the NFL. While he showed the ability to win off the ball, he did not display a wide array of pass-rush and counter moves, and at times, he struggled to shed blockers. This can often be a sign of a player with short arms, and sure enough, he measured at just 32 ½-inches at the combine. He also weighed in at just 296 pounds and did not participate in the on-field workout. At his pro day ,the only athletic event he measured was the short shuttle, and his 4.76 seconds would have finished just eighth among the 10 interior defenders to time at the combine.
One of the interior defenders who bettered his pro day effort was Virginia Tech’s Aeneas Peebles (4.70 seconds). He also impressed with a 4.94-second 40-yard dash, but like Nolen, he measured in with short arms (31 ⅜ inches). He truly impressed the most on the football field in 2024.
A transfer from Duke, Peebles graded out as one of the best all-around defensive interiors in the country last season. He graded positively on a solid 20.4% of run-defense plays and ranked first in the nation with a 91.3 pass-rush grade. His 17.8% all-around pass-rush win percentage and his 27.3% win percentage on true pass sets both ranked No. 1. Comparatively, Nolen’s win rate on true pass sets was just 19.5% and ranked him 14th nationally.
He possesses first-step explosiveness just like Nolen, but he is ahead of Nolen at this point in terms of having a plan when taking on blockers. He doesn’t try winning with plain brute strength, as he has a variety of swims and rips that he syncs up with his quick feet, allowing him to gain consistent penetration.
A look back at the DraftKings’ first-round odds yields no results for Peebles, as he is not even listed as a potential Day 1 player. While Nolen ranks eighth on the PFF big board and second among defensive interiors, Peebles is buried in the deepest position class in the draft – He ranks 142nd overall, 19th among his peers.
Yes, Nolan has impressive film and has graded well against the run, but with underdeveloped hands, the question is, will his skill set translate at the NFL level to the expectations of a first-round selection? The value play may, in the end, make more sense here, as Peebles is far more skilled than a typical Day 3 selection.
There are examples of this all throughout the NFL, most notably in Los Angeles, as the Los Angeles Rams selected Kobie Turner late in the third round in 2023. He weighed in at just 288 pounds at his pro day and measured in with 31 ⅜-inch arms, but in two seasons, he already has 17.5 sacks and 105 total pressures. As it so happens, the Jacksonville Jaguars are expected to be one of the featured teams in the market for an upgrade at defensive interior, and newly-hired general manager James Gladstone comes to Jacksonville via the aforementioned Rams.
Considering the success Gladstone saw first hand in Los Angeles with Kobie Turner (and 2024 second-round pick Braden Fiske, who posted 14 sacks as a rookie last season and possesses a similar size profile), why spend a high first round pick on a player like Nolan (or Graham, for that matter), when you can take Peebles on Day 3?
Why draft South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori in the first round when you can get Penn State’s Kevin Winston Jr. in the second?
South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori was one of the true marvels of the 2025 scouting combine. He measured 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds and registered an explosive 4.38-second 40-yard dash and a 43-inch vertical jump.
That explosiveness was no surprise to anyone familiar with his film, as his burst and straight-line speed readily flashed on Saturdays this past fall. He posted an 86.3 coverage grade, registering four interceptions, three of which he promptly returned for scores.
With his memorable plays in coverage and intimidating frame, he looks like a sure-fire first-round selection, but his all-around production is a bit deceiving. On two of his interceptions, he was initially beaten on the play, but the quarterback was extremely late on his read and throw, allowing him ample time to recover. Another was a simple zone drop where the quarterback threw directly to him, and on the last one, he was aligned at free safety, and the ball flight was altered by a hit on the quarterback and thrown directly to him 25 yards downfield. When in man coverage, he showed some hip tightness and was, at times, late to react when trying to pattern match from off. He also showed a propensity to be fooled by play-action when aligned in the box, further bringing into question his true instincts. His play against the run was extremely uneven despite his size, as he missed five tackles and graded positively on just 3.0% of run plays.
One safety prospect in this class who absolutely looks like a first-rounder on film is Penn State’s Kevin Winston Jr. In 2023, his 89.2 overall grade was the highest among all safety prospects in this year’s class, as he posted a 90.2 run-defense grade with no missed tackles while allowing just 10 receptions into his coverage with an interception and four pass breakups. Unfortunately, his 2024 campaign lasted less than two games, as he tore his ACL just 14 plays into Week 2’s game against Bowling Green and missed the remainder of the season.
Looking back at his film from 2023, there is no deception in his game – he is as advertised. While not a truly explosive athlete, he flashes plenty of ability when breaking and closing on plays in front of him, not to mention the instincts and ball skills needed to time his attacks well and break up passes. He has the long speed to track effectively from a deep middle position or while in man coverage downfield, and he confirmed this long speed just six months after his ACL surgery, running a 4.50-second 40-yard dash at Penn State’s pro day last month.
He is ranked 29th on the PFF big board (second among safeties), although the expectation is clearly that he will be a Day 2 pick because he is still recovering from his injury. Compare this to Emmanwori, who we rank as our 67th overall player and No. 5 safety. A team is almost certainly going to take the leap of faith with him on Day 1, but comparable players from the past like Obi Melifonwu and Isaiah Simmons serve as cautionary tales. Assuming health, Winston is far easier to project as a reliable starter at the NFL level. His impressive 40 time at this stage of his recovery certainly suggests he is well on his way to a full recovery, which begs the question: Why take Emmanwori in the first round, when you can draft the much more polished Winston on Day 2?
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