Fantasy Football IDP: Rookie linebacker prospect model

Jihaad Campbell stands out as the clear top option in this class: Campbell’s prospect score and expected draft capital should make him the clear LB1 for IDP rookie drafts right now.
Red flags abound for Jalon Walker: The Georgia linebacker is a unique prospect coming out of college, and even with high-end expected draft capital, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll translate right away for IDP.
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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

NFL draft season is in full swing, which naturally comes with a plethora of ways to evaluate how potential talent coming out of college will translate to the next level. This article series is no different, as we’ll add a fantasy football spin to the evaluation process to identify which incoming prospects have a shot to become fantasy-relevant early on in their NFL careers.

Next up is the linebacker position for IDP fantasy football, which has long been one of the trickier positions to find stable and quantifiable metrics worth trusting in prospect evaluation. After years of tinkering, I have identified a combination of metrics that have correlated best to IDP success at the next level, leading to this prospect model that takes into account those factors and metrics for each player to devise a prospect score, not unlike the edge position that was covered yesterday. Again, like any position, no one metric will tell us whether a college prospect will be good or not in the NFL, but the purpose of this model is to combine the metrics and factors that data has proven to be most relevant, providing weight to those that are more important than others.

For the linebacker position, in no particular order, we’re looking at career PFF grades, run-defense grades, coverage grades, draft capital, tackle efficiency, athleticism and level of competition faced. Underlying metrics were found to be much more reliable than overall production when accounting for all prospects. While production often comes with strong underlying metrics, one can exist without the other, and the underlying metrics have a better success rate than overall production alone.

Keys

The prospect pool for this model consists of 377 linebacker prospects dating back to 2018.
22 linebackers drafted since 2018 have become a top-12 IDP finisher for their position at least once (5.8%).
33 linebackers drafted since 2018 have become top-24 IDP finishers for their position at least once (8.7%).
49 linebackers drafted since 2018 have become top-36 IDP finishers for their position at least once (13.0%).
This is an important context when understanding hit rates as many more prospects will not become fantasy-relevant than most given such a large pool of players.
However, using this model, the higher the prospect score, the better the success rate will be for each prospect, as highlighted below.

With all this in mind, it’s time to look at this year’s linebacker prospects to identify our future IDP contributors. It should also be noted that these scores should not necessarily be used so much as your rankings as they should be more of a guide toward the quality of the player. Draft capital and landing spots can and will play a big part in the actual rankings.

2025 linebacker class

JALON WALKER, GEORGIA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 12th overall

Walker is expected to be the first linebacker drafted this year – though, because of his college prospect profile, he is arguably the most interesting name of this year’s class due to the red flags highlighted in this model.
Expected draft capital provides a nice enough boost to Walker’s prospect score that it isn’t impossible for him to find success in the NFL and for IDP, as that capital will more than likely create playing time, which matters more than anything else for IDP production.
However, he owns by far the lowest prospect score of any first-round prospect in this model dating back to 2018 due to his lack of experience playing that position.
Walker has just 439 total career snaps as an off-ball linebacker coming out of college due to splitting his time between playing edge and linebacker, and not thriving at either has hurt his overall score.
The concern for Walker will be that he isn’t ready to step into a true linebacker role for a while in the NFL due to his inexperience, which will likely lead to him being used as a situation-specific weapon, rushing the passer and spying the quarterback most likely, which does not translate to trustworthy IDP value.

JIHAAD CAMPBELL, ALABAMA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 25th overall

Campbell is the top-ranked linebacker for this 2025 class, according to this prospect model, and finds himself among the top 95th percentile of prospects since 2018, which gives him the best shot to return high-end IDP value from this class.
When breaking down that top 95th percentile into linebackers drafted in the first round, 11 of 19 received that Day 1 draft capital, six of which became top-12 IDP linebackers at least once so far (54.5%), a slight increase from the overall 50% top-12 hit rate indicated above.
Two young linebackers can be viewed as top-12 hopefuls since they’re quite early in their NFL careers, Jack Campbell and Edgerrin Cooper.
Campbell isn’t guaranteed to get first-round capital, but he should still be drafted highly among this year’s linebacker class, which will make him the most covetable IDP linebacker in this class and my personal rookie LB1 for 2025.

CARSON SCHWESINGER, UCLA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 62nd overall

Schwesinger is in the running to be a second-round pick in 2025, which is the ideal range for a rookie linebacker to get drafted from an IDP lens in most years, and even in a class with two potential first-round linebackers, Schwesinger is in a good spot to be IDP-relevant based on his prospect profile.
One of the attributes that IDP gamers will fall in love with when it comes to Schwesinger’s profile is that he owns a 100th percentile tackle rate (18.8%) for his college career.
There are a few things to be aware of before investing too heavily in that metric alone though, especially when it comes to Schwesinger.
First, Schwesinger’s production and tackle rate is essentially the result of one year as a starter, as he barely even cracked 100 defensive snaps in his previous two college seasons. Therefore, this is a smaller sample compared to most prospects' career numbers.
The other aspect of betting on tackle rate translating from college to the NFL is that, on its own, tackle rate is not a stable metric from college to the NFL or even season to season in the NFL.
Among 31 prospects since 2018 with a 90th percentile tackle rate or greater for their careers, four have gone on to finish as top-12 IDPs (12.9%), five have finished at least in the top 24 (16.1%), and seven have finished at least in the top 36 (22.6%).
Of the four top-12 finishers, three (Nick Bolton, Roquan Smith and Leighton Vander Esch) all finished with over 1,000 defensive snaps in their college careers.
The lone exception was Shaquille Leonard, who will be the hopeful comparison for Schwesinger as an inexperienced starter who was drafted on Day 2 in a class with multiple first-round linebackers ahead of him (2018).

DEMETRIUS KNIGHT JR., SOUTH CAROLINA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 87th overall

Knight appears set to be a third-round pick right now, according to most consensus draft boards, which is about right based on the average linebacker prospect scoring between the 85th and 95th percentile.
For Knight, he is in this really small group of linebacker prospects who own a 95th percentile career coverage grade and a 95th percentile tackle rate, joining Roquan Smith and Ben Burr-Kirven as one of just three linebacker prospects since 2018 to achieve both of those feats together.
Obviously, those are two very different outcomes for NFL career and IDP value between Smith – a perennial LB1 candidate, and Burr-Kirven, who was a fifth-round pick and played just 15 total defensive snaps in the NFL.
It’s also a good reminder of why we need a larger collection of metrics to evaluate all prospects instead of just focusing on one or two, and even then, the success rate, especially for linebackers, is not ideal.

BARRETT CARTER, CLEMSON

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 100th overall

Carter is the last of the linebackers currently projected to go within the first two days of the NFL draft, and he scores well in this model all things considered.
IDP managers may not fully trust Clemson linebackers based on recent history, though Carter does boast a relatively positive profile to back up his potential.
A common theme among Clemson linebackers in the prospect pool (since 2018) is that they are all below-average tacklers for their college careers. Carter actually owns the worst career tackle rate of the bunch.
Again, tackle rate alone does not make or break an NFL prospect (Fred Warner had a 9.7% career college tackle rate), and part of this with Carter was his role in Clemson’s defense, as he spent more than 20% of his career snaps in the slot, which is well above average for the position (10.4%).
A good landing spot with Day 2 draft capital and a typical off-ball role would be significant for Carter’s IDP potential, as it would for any linebacker, but that becomes slightly more appealing considering the prospect score.

CHRIS PAUL JR., OLE MISS

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 114th overall

Paul’s prospect score immediately makes him the most intriguing Day 3 linebacker in this class, and while he’s already the highest-ranked of this class according to consensus boards, the fact that he owns a better prospect score than some of those expected to go ahead of him in the draft is a bit more encouraging.
Paul spent three years at Arkansas before transferring to Ole Miss, where he really took off as a promising prospect, as he was able to build on his higher scores in this model coming out of this past season.
If Paul does end up getting drafted on Day 3 instead of the first three rounds, he’ll join a group of four prospects who were drafted in that range and also scored in the 90th percentile of prospects in this model.
Among those four linebackers (Josey Jewell, Tyrice Knight, Cedric Gray and Troy Dye), only one (Jewell) has finished among the top 24 at his position for IDP, though Knight Gray and Dye have all had moments, and for Knight and Gray, specifically, there’s still hope as it’s early in their NFL careers.
This should have us feeling optimistic about Paul sticking around in the NFL and eventually getting a starting shot, even if not right away, making him worth a late-round flier in IDP rookie drafts.

DANNY STUTSMAN, OKLAHOMA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 117th overall

Stutsman is your typical early-down thumper looking at his college numbers, where the majority of his value comes from defending the run and tackling compared to what he can provide in coverage.
This isn’t to say that he won’t be valuable for IDP, but it does provide a little less hope around his potential success rates highlighted in the image above.
Among the 52 linebacker prospects within the top 85th percentile prospect scores, Stutsman owns, by far, the worst career coverage grade, ranking in the ninth percentile among all prospects since 2018.
To widen the scope, looking at the 85th percentile overall prospects, nine scored below the 50th percentile in career coverage grade.
Of those nine, two (Jordyn Brooks and Rashaan Evans) managed top-12 finishes, though both were first-round picks. Jerome Baker was the only other linebacker from that cohort to find lesser fantasy success (top 24) so far.
Combined with the draft capital, this doesn’t necessarily bode well for Stutsman finding IDP success in the NFL, which is important to keep in mind come rookie draft season.

SMAEL MONDON JR., GEORGIA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 125th overall

Mondon is the other Georgia linebacker in this year’s draft class, along with Jalon Walker, though aside from expected draft capital, Mondon at least owns some slightly better metrics for his college career.
For Mondon, that draft capital could ultimately be the killer even if a 70th percentile score isn’t bad. It’s still rare for a linebacker with that score who is drafted outside of the first two days of the NFL Draft to become relevant for IDP.
There have been six of a possible 44 linebackers that meet that criteria who delivered at least a top-36 IDP finish in a season (13.6%). Of those six, only three managed a top-24 finish (6.8%), and just one (T.J. Edwards, UDFA) finished top 12 so far.
Unfortunately, for Mondon, when adding that context, those success rates are significantly lower than the general success rates highlighted in the image above.

JEFFREY BASSA, OREGON

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 127th overall

Bassa owns the worst prospect model score among the consensus top-10 linebackers for this year’s draft at the moment, which is a significant concern for his IDP potential.
Bassa may become an IDP starter at some point in his NFL career, as there have been players to do so who scored lower than him as prospects.
These names include Nate Landman, Azeez Al-Shaair, Tae Crowder, Tyrel Dodson, Kaden Elliss, Quincy Williams and Henry To’oTo’o, but that is still only seven names of a possible 176 eligible linebackers (4.0%), and only Williams and Elliss found top-12 success so far.
Bassa also owns the worst career run-defense grade of that group as well, which likely hurts his chances of being considered for even a rotational early-down role to start his career if he continues those struggles in the NFL.
Bassa is not worth a draft pick in IDP rookie drafts based on this score right now, though a combination of improved draft capital and landing spot could always help.

JACK KISER, NOTRE DAME

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 147th overall

When it comes to Day 3 linebackers worth targeting as potential sleepers, Kiser stands out alongside Chris Paul Jr. as a linebacker that teams might be able to work with.
Kiser has experience, as he played 55 games for Notre Dame across six college seasons. However, he was only a full-time starter in that sixth season, which hurt his score a small amount.
That experience also means he’s on the older side for prospects, which IDP dynasty managers might not love, though age isn’t accounted for in this model.
What does matter is that Kiser has an ideal combination of strong grades across the board to go along with a strong tackle rate, and if not for the red flag of taking a long time to become a starter, he would have earned a higher score.
Age and starting experience earlier in his college career likely would have also helped his potential draft capital, making him a more desirable prospect.
That being said, Kiser compares to 12 other NFL linebackers who were drafted outside of the first two days of the NFL Draft and scored among the top 85th percentile.
Of those 12, three (25.0%) delivered at least a top-24 IDP finish so far, with an additional one added on who had a top-36 finish (33.3%) – none have achieved top-12 yet.
It’s a limited success ceiling for Kiser based on those numbers, but as always, a good landing spot would make him an intriguing sleeper candidate.