Fantasy Football: Rookie wide receiver prospect model

The intriguing case for Travis Hunter: While Hunter’s usage in the NFL seems to vary depending on his landing spot, looking at him from a wide receiver lens puts him in the conversation for WR1 in this class.
Tetairoa McMillan doesn’t disappoint: McMillan doesn’t necessarily carry the locked-in elite wide receiver moniker that past top-10 picks would offer, he’s still a clear top option in this class.
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Estimated reading time: 15 minutes

NFL draft season is in full swing, which naturally comes with a plethora of ways to evaluate potential talent coming out of college with the potential to translate to the next level. This article series is no different, as we’ll add a fantasy football spin to the evaluation process to identify which incoming prospects have a shot to become fantasy-relevant early on in their NFL careers.

Next up is the wide receiver position for fantasy football, where there are several potential first-round picks seemingly every season. This year brings a new crop of options to choose from. To help sort through this year’s options, this model will account for the data and metrics that correlate best to NFL success for college prospects and utilize the key factors for each player to devise a prospect score. Like with any position, there is not one metric that will tell us whether a college prospect will be good or not in the NFL, but the purpose of this model is to combine the metrics and factors that data has proven to be the most relevant while providing weight to those that are more important than others.

For the wide receiver position, in no particular order, we’re looking at career receiving grades, yards per route run, performance versus single coverage, level of competition faced and draft capital, among a few others.

Keys:

The prospect pool for this model consists of 212 past wide receiver prospects dating back to 2019.
21 wide receivers drafted since 2019 have become a top-12 PPR finisher for their position at least once (9.9%).
33 wide receivers drafted since 2019 have become a top-24 PPR finisher for their position at least once (15.6%).
41 wide receivers drafted since 2019 have become a top-36 PPR finisher for their position at least once (19.3%).
This is an important context when understanding hit rates as many more prospects will not become fantasy-relevant than most, given such a large pool of players.
However, using this model, the higher the prospect score, the better the success rate will be for each prospect, as highlighted below.

With all this in mind, it’s time to look at this year’s wide receiver prospects to identify our future fantasy football contributors. It should also be noted that these scores should not necessarily be used so much as your rankings as they should be more of a guide toward the quality of the player. Draft capital and landing spot can and will play a big part in actual rankings.

The 2025 Wide Receiver Class

TRAVIS HUNTER, COLORADO

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 3rd overall

Hunter is arguably the most unique and intriguing prospect in recent years in that he currently projects as more of a hybrid cornerback/wide receiver at the next level because that’s what he did during his time at Colorado.
As a result, Hunter may not play a full-time wide receiver role, which hurts his potential fantasy value, though that may be his primary role in the NFL, depending on where he lands in the draft.
Focusing on Hunter as a wide receiver prospect, there is a lot to like with his game, as he ranked among the top 90th percentile in career receiving grade (90.7), putting him among eight other first-round wide receivers who accomplished that feat in their college careers.
The eight other wide receivers drafted in Round 1 with a 90th percentile career receiving grade include DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Malik Nabers, CeeDee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Treylon Burks, Marquise Brown and Marvin Harrison Jr.
Burks did not work out at all, while Brown was only able to reach top-24 status as a PPR wide receiver. It’s early in Harrison Jr.’s career, and there’s reason to believe he can still be a fantasy WR1. There is still a 62.5% top-12 hit rate from this cohort, which is encouraging for Hunter if he does, in fact, take on a full-time wide receiver role in the NFL.

TETAIROA MCMILLAN, ARIZONA

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 9th overall

McMillan is currently on the fringe of being a top-10 pick in this year’s draft, though he doesn’t necessarily boast as strong of a profile as past top-10 picks for his position, even as he scores in the 95th percentile of this model.
This doesn’t mean that McMillan isn’t a top prospect, as he owns a great combination of encouraging metrics, which allowed him to score among this top-tier percentile range.
Across all the data collected for use in this model, there isn’t really one key area that is a weakness. Even if he’s not truly elite in any of those areas, he’s just really solid.
And that is kind of how McMillan is a little different than past elite prospects, though being really solid across the board and getting that first-round capital is a good thing overall for our wide receiver prospects, which is why he scores so highly in this model.
He was productive in college thanks to running over 1,400 routes but wasn’t overly efficient to be considered among the elite, as his 2.37 career yards per route run ranks 65th percentile among prospects since 2019.
Here is the full list of first-round wide receivers with over 1,000 routes run for their careers and ranked 65th percentile or lower in career YPRR: Zay Flowers, N’Keal Harry, Jahan Dotson, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall and Jalen Reagor.
This is only one metric, and it shouldn’t be viewed as the definitive statistic regarding McMillan’s profile – that’s the whole point of putting together a larger cumulative model – but instead it should highlight that there could be a limit to his potential WR1 ceiling.

MATTHEW GOLDEN, TEXAS

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 21st overall

Golden is getting buzz as the first non-Travis Hunter wide receiver drafted in this year’s class, but looking at his outlook using this model points to a player with significantly more risk than all the other potential 2025 first-round wide receivers.
One of the key metrics in this model, and one that has been a good indicator of NFL success, is yards per route run, and for Golden, that is arguably his biggest red flag.
Golden’s career YPRR (1.85) ranks just 24th percentile among prospects since 2019, while his best mark for a season (2.10) is just a 12th percentile mark.
As a potential first-round pick, Golden joins a rare group of prospects since 2019 to be drafted Day 1 who also owns a career yards-per-route-run total below 2.00, including Ricky Pearsall, Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Legette.
All three wide receivers in that cohort were drafted last year, and Brian Thomas Jr. has already become a success in that regard.
Unfortunately, the larger sample of sub-2.00 yards per route run prospects to include Day 2 of the draft is quite a bit less encouraging with a group that includes Joshua Palmer, Jonathan Mingo, Terry McLaurin, Van Jefferson, Adonai Mitchell, D.K. Metcalf, Chase Claypool, Keon Coleman, Tyquan Thornton, Miles Boykin, Ja’Lynn Polk, Devin Duvernay and Terrace Marshall Jr.
Golden’s draft capital is fueled almost entirely by potential and athleticism, and while he can succeed over time in the NFL, history points to him being far less than a sure thing and not on the same level as the typical first-round wide receiver prospects, which should be taken into account when it comes time for rookie drafts.

EMEKA EGBUKA, OHIO STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 28th overall

Egbuka owns a much more typical production profile as a first-round wide receiver compared to Golden, and as a 91st percentile scorer in this model, his place as a late first-round pick is more aligned with what we’re used to from the position.
Among the 90th percentile, Egbuka joins 18 past first-round wide receivers who scored 90th percentile and above, and nine (50%) have delivered a top-12 PPR finish while an additional three (66.7%) became top-24 finishers – creating a better outlook than the general 90th percentile outlook, highlighted in the image above.
Egbuka’s 8.45 prospect score has him sandwiched between Drake London and Justin Jefferson in the prospect model – and Jefferson’s college production and metrics compare much more similarly to Egbuka, as Egbuka delivered a slightly better career YPRR total and single-season-best YPRR total.
It’s also worth noting that Egbuka projects as more of a slot receiver in the NFL, so that makes his projection slightly different from London and Jefferson in that range, as there are only five other wide receiver prospects, Egbuka included, among the top 90th percentile who have spent at least 70% of their offensive snaps in the slot.
The other four wide receivers who match that criteria are Jaylen Waddle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Treylon Burks and Elijah Moore, so there are some high-end hits for those with mostly slot experience in college.

LUTHER BURDEN III, MISSOURI

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 30th overall

Burden is currently projected to be drafted near the end of the first round in the NFL draft, and similarly to the previously mentioned Egbuka, he spent the majority of his college snaps in the slot (60%), which is where the bulk of his production has come from.
Burden’s usage shouldn’t be expected to change too much in the NFL considering his profile and production when lined up out wide, where the data points to below-average performances.
When lined up outside, Burden ranks just 26th percentile in YPRR (1.79), 43rd percentile in receiving grade (72.8) and struggles against press coverage, ranking just 27th percentile in YPRR versus press compared to prospects since 2019.
Burden’s receiving grade out of the slot (89.0) ranks 86th percentile, and his YPRR (2.63) ranks 69th percentile, as he creates more value in that specific role.
Burden is in a good position to be a fantasy contributor, especially as a first-round pick where he could land on a top offense, which should make him a worthwhile first-round pick in rookie drafts as well.

ELIC AYOMANOR, STANFORD

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 50th overall

Ayomanor is the first consensus non-first-round wide receiver in this class, and judging by his profile, he represents a larger drop-off from the previous five names already covered.
Ayomanor is very clearly suited to be an outside wide receiver, and he doesn't have a lot of versatility in that regard, as his strengths are long speed, production and performance versus single coverage, and beating press coverage.
Meanwhile, his work in the slot, which is minimal (13% of routes), resulted in a below-average receiving grade (72.6) and yards per route run totals (1.75) to go along with a 39th percentile first-down-plus-touchdown per route run rate (0.11).
Ayomanor’s career yards per route run total (2.12) ranks 45th percentile among prospects since 2019, amd there are 12 Day 2 or later prospects who scored below the 50th percentile in career YPRR and ranked among the top 60th percentile in this model.
Of those nine, only Jayden Reed is the lone top-36 PPR finisher of the bunch, while the other qualifiers include Denzel Mims, Devin Duvernay, Jermaine Burton, KeeSean Johnson, Cedric Tillman, Alec Pierce, Terrace Marshall Jr. and Malik Washington.
Again, since we’re using this model as a guide and not a true ranking, Ayomanor shouldn’t be ignored in rookie drafts, as he may become relevant for fantasy, but it should give us a general idea of what his NFL projection could be.

TRE HARRIS, OLE MISS

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 57th overall

Harris is one of the more productive receivers from this year’s class, amassing over 3,500 receiving yards and a career 3.00 yards per route run – a 94th percentile mark.
A career YPRR total of 3.00 or higher isn’t a guarantee for fantasy success, but it does come with a decent track record among nine players selected in the first two days of the NFL draft since 2019.
Of those nine players, five have delivered at least one top-12 PPR finish (55.6%), and two more have been at least top-24 (77.8%), and the two outliers are Laviska Shenault and D’Wayne Eskridge.
This is an improved hit rate than Harris’ general prospect score range, though the point of the model is to be inclusive of other metrics that matter as well, so it’s far from a guarantee that he’s a lock for fantasy-relevance, but there is a lot to like from Harris across the board which is why he scored so highly in this model to begin with.

JAYDEN HIGGINS, IOWA STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 64th overall

Higgins is another likely outside wide receiver set to go on Day 2 in this year’s draft, not unlike the previously mentioned Ayomanor and Harris, boasting some strong metrics in his favor that put him in consideration for being the first Day 2 receiver drafted.
Higgins puts himself in that conversation with his success against single coverage, earning a 93.1 receiving grade for his career (95th percentile), which joins nine other wide receiver prospects who also scored at least 90th percentile in this model, two of which are Tre Harris and Tetairoa McMillan.
The other seven in that cohort include DeVonta Smith, Ja’Marr Chase, Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Chris Olave, Andy Isabella and Tyler Johnson.
Isabella and Johnson clearly didn’t work out, but the WR1 upside is stronger than not with this group.

JACK BECH, TCU

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 67th overall

Bech, unfortunately, owns the bleakest outlook of the top-10 wide receivers covered in detail here, as less than 5% of 117 prospects who score below the 55th percentile in this model have finished top-12 for fantasy so far.
However, those that did emerge are encouraging names that are still mostly relevant today, including Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin and Hunter Renfrow.
Other than St. Brown and Renfrow, the other three were also drafted inside the top-100 in their respective drafts, as Bech is slated to do.
Unfortunately, there aren't many other common denominators between the five outliers that can be shared with Bech, which makes him one of the more wide-ranged evaluations of this class from a data perspective.

JAYLIN NOEL, IOWA STATE

Consensus Mock Draft capital: 71st overall

Noel’s data profile suffers from one of the same historical comparisons as Ayomanor’s, as both players are below average yards per route run earners for their college careers and are expected to go on Day 2 of the NFL Draft.
Noel also doesn’t have Ayomanor's size, and he spent the majority of his offensive snaps in the slot (73%).
Unfortunately, as a slot-heavy wide receiver, the outlook for Noel isn’t ideal among prospects who score 60th percentile or lower in this model, as there are only two receivers who spent more than half of their college snaps in the slot (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Hunter Renfrow) that found top-24 fantasy football success out of a possible 125 (1.6%) since 2019 so far.