• Jayden Daniels heads to Washington: The former LSU signal-caller leapfrogs the oft-mocked Drake Maye at No. 2.
• Two edge defenders sneak into the top 10: Alabama's Dallas Turner and Florida State's Jared Verse join the Falcons and Bears, respectively.
• PFF’s 2024 NFL Draft Guide is now available: Our latest draft guide is loaded with more than 600 pages of PFF-exclusive advanced stats, grades and analysis on some of the top 2024 draft prospects.
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Pick 1: Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams, USC
The Bears should still do their due diligence before locking in this pick, but all indications are that Williams will be the team's next quarterback. Working in Williams’ favor is that he led the nation with a 94.3 clean-pocket grade in 2023, one of the more stable predictors of future performance.
Pick 2: Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
Based on 2023 alone, Daniels was the best player in college football. His track record of elite production isn’t quite as impressive, but he’s always been a dynamic and decisive runner and rarely puts the ball in danger. Daniels’ career 1.7% turnover-worthy play rate is the best by any FBS quarterback with at least 700 career dropbacks in the PFF College era.
Pick 3: New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
New England needs a franchise quarterback. The Patriots ranked 31st in passing grade and expected points added per pass in 2023. Maye has the requisite arm strength to succeed in harsh conditions. Though he needs to work on processing the entire field, he leads all FBS quarterbacks in passing grade when throwing to his first read over the past two seasons.
Pick 4: Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Arizona couldn’t pick a better year to need a top-flight receiver. Marvin Harrison Jr. led all FBS wideouts in PFF receiving grade and touchdowns over the past two seasons. His addition along with Trey McBride’s ascent gives the Cardinals a nice foundation in their passing game.
Pick 5: Los Angeles Chargers: WR Malik Nabers, LSU
Rumors are swirling that Mike Williams could be a cap casualty, and Quentin Johnston disappointed in his rookie season, so the Chargers add the incredibly talented Nabers with this pick. His stop-and-start ability may be unmatched, even in this loaded receiver class. He can burn defenses out wide and in the slot. Nabers would give the Chargers a vertical element they didn’t have last year.
Pick 6: New York Giants: WR Rome Odunze, Washington
This may be a trade-up spot for a team in need of a quarterback or wanting to draft Joe Alt. There may also be some Brock Bowers consideration here, with a Darren Waller retirement decision looming. For now, the pick is Odunze with New York desperate for a WR1. Odunze led the nation in receiving yards in 2023 and totaled at least 100 in 10 of his 15 games.
Pick 7: Tennessee Titans: T Joe Alt, Notre Dame
This is another potential trade-up spot for a quarterback-needy team. With the top three receivers off the board, the Titans take the best lineman in the draft. Alt tore up the NFL Scouting Combine despite a massive 6-foot-9, 321-pound frame. He also led all FBS tackles in PFF overall grade over the past two years, and here he combines with 2023 first-rounder Peter Skoronski to create a potential elite left side of Tennessee's offensive line.
Pick 8: Atlanta Falcons: Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama
There are loud whispers that Kirk Cousins could wind up in Atlanta, which presumably takes the Falcons out of the first-round quarterback discussion. Instead, they’ll add a talented pass rusher. It’s a tough decision as to which edge rusher they prefer, but if Raheem Morris leans toward standup rushers like he did in Los Angeles, Turner could be the choice over someone like Jared Verse based on scheme fit.
Pick 9: Chicago Bears: Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
Like the Turner pick above, an edge defender decision in Chicago could come down to scheme fit. Matt Eberflus leans toward four-man fronts and rarely blitzes. Verse is the premier pass rusher in this draft when he’s in a three-point stance. Verse and Montez Sweat would be a fearsome duo for the rest of the NFC to handle.
Pick 10: New York Jets: T Olu Fashanu, Penn State
Much of the decision with the Jets’ pick comes down to their free agency acquisitions. If they land someone like Tyron Smith, they could opt for a right tackle like Taliese Fuaga or JC Latham. For now, Fashanu, who owns a terrific 89.2 pass-blocking grade over the past two years, is the pick. He’s the most proven pass protector in this draft, and the Jets need to protect Aaron Rodgers at all costs.
Pick 11: Minnesota Vikings: QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Minnesota’s quarterback situation is in serious flux if recent rumors of Kirk Cousins’ departure are true. McCarthy lands in an ideal situation with a team that finished 2023 in the top eight in pass-blocking and receiving grades. The Vikings also have an elite play caller in Kevin O’Connell who would use McCarthy’s athleticism to his advantage.
Pick 12: Denver Broncos: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
Denver is in a tough spot with no second-round pick to fall back on in case Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. drops that far. Instead, they opt to fortify a defense that finished 31st in coverage grade in 2023. There is a ton of draft talent at cornerback this year, but Mitchell seems like the best fit for a defense that frequently runs single-high looks.
Pick 13: Las Vegas Raiders: T Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
Three of the Raiders’ five offensive line starters were set to enter free agency before center Andre James agreed to a new deal with the team. Their quarterback situation is a question at the moment, but none of that matters if they can’t block. Fuaga is a plug-and-play starter at right tackle who would fit seamlessly into Luke Getsy’s zone running scheme. He led all FBS offensive linemen in run-blocking grade in 2023.
Pick 14: New Orleans Saints: T Troy Fautanu, Washington
Fautanu’s stock is rising after an incredible NFL Scouting Combine, and he fits the Saints’ need for a natural left tackle. They can move Trevor Penning inside to guard, where his aggression may be a better match. Fautanu could stand to improve his run blocking, but his 88.2 pass-blocking grade in 2023 ranked fifth among all qualified tackles.
Pick 15: Indianapolis Colts: CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
The Colts run as much zone coverage as any NFL team. DeJean excelled in it at Iowa. He may be the most fundamentally sound cornerback in this draft and should test incredibly well at his pro day. There will be some Brock Bowers speculation with this pick, but Indianapolis desperately needs help in the secondary, especially if Kenny Moore II leaves in free agency.
Pick 16: Seattle Seahawks: DI Byron Murphy II, Texas
Seattle needs reinforcements in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Murphy would fortify a run defense that faltered down the stretch last season, as well as bring an imposing pass-rush presence. He had as good an NFL Scouting Combine as any defensive tackle outside of Braden Fiske and proved himself worthy of a first-round selection.
Pick 17: Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
The Jaguars recently made some moves, including re-signing guard Ezra Cleveland, in an attempt to stabilize their offensive line. The cost is that they had to cut cornerback Darious Williams, who led them in coverage grade last season by a wide margin. Terrion Arnold steps in after a breakout year in Tuscaloosa, finishing with an 84.9 coverage grade and leading all SEC cornerbacks in run-defense grade.
Pick 18: Cincinnati Bengals: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
Serious consideration will be given to a tackle here, but it’s too hard to pass on arguably the best tight end in college football history. Bowers' 94.1 career receiving grade is the best in the PFF College era by a Power Five tight end. He’s a monster after the catch, and his talents combined with the rest of Cincinnati’s weapons could make them unstoppable.
Pick 19: Los Angeles Rams: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
The Rams ranked dead last in coverage grade in 2023. McKinstry had another excellent season for the Crimson Tide, though he wasn’t targeted nearly as often as he was in 2022. Notably for the Rams, McKinstry posted an 83.8 zone coverage grade this past season, ranking fourth among Power Five cornerbacks with at least 300 coverage snaps.
Pick 20: Pittsburgh Steelers: T Amarius Mims, Georgia
The Steelers take a freaky athletic Georgia tackle for the second straight year. Mims is an outstanding athlete at 340 pounds. He just needs to stay healthy. He posted an 80.0-plus pass-blocking grade in each of the past two seasons. Pittsburgh would just need to decide whether he or Broderick Jones would play on the left side.
Pick 21: Miami Dolphins: CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
Despite the presence of some big-name players, Miami’s cornerbacks ranked 27th in coverage grade this past season. Their need at the position only grew after the recent cut of Xavien Howard. Wiggins is comfortable in press coverage and ran an incredible 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Pick 22: Philadelphia Eagles: C Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
Jason Kelce’s retirement leaves a hole at center in Philadelphia and, despite other needs, they would have to at least consider Powers-Johnson here. They could leave Cam Jurgens at right guard for the sake of continuity and add a player who gave up just one pressure across the entire 2023 season.
Pick 23: Houston Texans: DI Jer'Zhan Newton, Illinois
Newton, a former high school running back, is a tad undersized but brings outstanding athleticism on the inside. He’s the only Power Five defensive tackle to post at least a 90.0 grade in run defense and the pass rush across the past two seasons combined. He would be a massive help for a team that didn’t have an interior defender grade above 65.0 last season.
Pick 24: Dallas Cowboys: WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
Dak Prescott operates best when he has someone to threaten safeties vertically. Thomas filled that exact role at LSU and was incredibly productive. He led the nation in receiving touchdowns and deep receiving grade this past season and would be a phenomenal complement to CeeDee Lamb.
Pick 25: Green Bay Packers: C Zach Frazier, West Virginia
The Packers thrived offensively last season despite below-average production from their interior offensive line, and starting right guard Jon Runyan Jr. is a free agent. West Virginia’s Zach Frazier has some positional flexibility and allowed just seven pressures, including zero sacks, at center last season.
Pick 26: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA
The Buccaneers roll with the best player available in Latu. While he isn’t an A-plus athlete, Latu has an outstanding pass-rush arsenal and was extremely productive during his two years at UCLA. Among his many other accolades, Latu’s 94.5 true pass-rush grade led all defensive players in 2023.
Pick 27: Arizona Cardinals: LB Payton Wilson, NC State
Arizona’s linebackers ranked last in overall grade this past season by a wide margin. We haven’t seen a first round without an off-ball linebacker selection in more than a decade. They select Wilson as their cornerstone linebacker after his incredible NFL Scouting Combine and a 2023 season in which he earned an outstanding 89.9 overall grade.
Pick 28: Buffalo Bills: S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
Many mock drafts pair the Bills with a receiver here, but they can wait and select another player at that spot from a loaded class. The same cannot be said for the safety group. Tyler Nubin stands above the rest and would be a nice scheme fit in a defense that runs a lot of two-high safety looks, similar to the one Nubin played in at Minnesota.
Pick 29: Detroit Lions: WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
The Lions have needs on defense, but this mock hasn’t fallen their way on that front. Instead, they opt to upgrade an outside receiver spot with Josh Reynolds possibly leaving in free agency. Nobody throws in routes better than Jared Goff. And nobody in this draft class runs in routes better than Adonai Mitchell. While it isn’t quite that simple, Mitchell would bring a size-speed element that the Lions don’t currently possess.
Pick 30: Baltimore Ravens: WR Troy Franklin, Oregon
Baltimore wasn’t particularly efficient throwing the deep ball last season. Troy Franklin posted a 99.1 deep receiving grade in 2023 and averaged 3.32 yards per route run, the sixth-best mark in the FBS. The Ravens need to continue to add weapons around Lamar Jackson, and Franklin’s frame and long speed are a good match.
Pick 31: San Francisco 49ers: T JC Latham, Alabama
Admittedly, this is a dream scenario for the 49ers. They need to upgrade on the offensive line, and the massive Latham would be a steal. He finished 2023 with the eighth-best overall grade among college tackles and allowed just two sacks across nearly 1,900 pass-blocking reps during his career in Tuscaloosa.
Pick 32: Kansas City Chiefs, WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia
Lost in the shuffle of Xavier Worthy’s record-breaking 40-yard dash was Ladd McConkey’s solid NFL Scouting Combine performance. McConkey has the requisite speed to threaten defenses deep. He battled injuries in 2023 but displayed his value in Athens, emerging as a top threat when Brock Bowers missed three games with an injury of his own. McConkey has a very high floor and should be a seamless fit in Andy Reid’s offense.
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