• Aidan Hutchinson delivers an elite sophomore season: Hutchinson, who recorded 11.5 sacks, could have had an even bigger year, considering his high-end pass-rush metrics.
• Kayvon Thibodeaux highlights the greatest overachievers: Thibodeaux was another sophomore edge who had a big year in the sack column, but poor underlying pass-rush metrics are a cause for concern and potential regression heading into 2024.
• Justin Madubuike was the biggest overachiever among DTs: Madubuike’s 11-game sack streak was just one of the reasons he hit such high marks in 2023.
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
It’s easy at the end of each NFL season to look at where players ranked in fantasy football, but understanding why they finished where they did is often more important when projecting for the future.
For the defensive line position, sacks are a huge part of their IDP success. Knowing which pass rushers delivered in that regard — and, more importantly, which ones didn’t — can help identify potential positive regression candidates for the following season. By the same rationale, players who over-delivered in 2023 sacks could be potential regression candidates for 2024.
All expected sack numbers are derived from a player’s playing time (pass-rush snaps) and a combination of all pass-rush metrics. Average pass-rush metrics come from three-year averages in pass-rush grade, win rate and pressure rate.
We start with the players who delivered above their expected sack totals in 2023. This list comprises potential 2024 regression candidates, depending on pass-rush metrics and playing time the following year.
EDGE DEFENDER NEGATIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES
• Kayvon Thibodeaux tops the list as the biggest overachiever at his position, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who studied his pass-rush metrics this season. There isn’t any way around it; he posted incredibly low pass-rush metrics, finishing 100th or lower at his position in win rate (6.4%) and pressure rate (8.6%) and ranking 81st in pass-rush grade (63.1). If that keeps up, he shouldn’t be expected to come anywhere close to 11.5 sacks in 2024.
• Leonard Floyd delivered six sacks over expected with slightly better pass-rush metrics than Thibodeaux but significantly less playing time, which is where his lower expected total mostly stems from.
• Trey Hendrickson (+5.4), Josh Allen (+4.8) and Jaelan Phillips (+2.9) were all highlighted in this article last season, as they finished well below expectations. They all delivered in a big way in 2023, as expected.
• Key regression candidates to keep in mind heading into next season, assuming pass-rush metrics don’t vastly improve, include D.J. Wonnum, Travon Walker, Kwity Paye, Yaya Diaby and Darrell Taylor, among others with lower expected sack totals.
DEFENSIVE TACKLE NEGATIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES
• Justin Madubuike tops this list after tying the NFL record for games with at least a half-sack (11). Madubuike’s pass-rush metrics were solid all year, as was his playing time, but it's going to be incredibly difficult for him to match 13 sacks in 2024. Seven or eight is a more reasonable expectation, assuming all remains the same.
• Daron Payne topped this list last year (+6.3) after delivering 11.5 sacks in 2022. He was one of the key regression candidates heading into this season, and regress he did, despite still performing above expected. His four sacks are far from what he was able to accomplish last season despite playing slightly more snaps.
• Other potential regression candidates at the position from this season who are likely to be targeted highly in IDP drafts next year include Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler, Ed Oliver and Kobie Turner. Though they should still be good IDP options, assuming playing time and stable metrics hold, it’s going to be difficult for them to replicate their 2023 sack totals.
There are also plenty of great IDP targets for next season who performed well in 2023 but didn’t necessarily enjoy the sack luck of their peers. Here are those who could be due for some positive regression in 2024.
EDGE DEFENDER POSITIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES
• Cameron Jordan recorded just two sacks, the lowest total of his career since his rookie season (one). Jordan didn’t boast the greatest pass-rush metrics, but his playing time was among the highest in the league, which is why his expected total is relatively high.
• Coming off a Defensive Player of the Year season thanks to 18.5 sacks, Nick Bosa suffered from some regression in 2023. He went from +4.3 sacks versus expected last season to -4.6 this season. Bosa’s elite pass-rush metrics keep his expected sack total around 14, so expect him to bounce back in 2024.
• Josh Sweat also had a top-10 number in sacks over expected in 2022 (+3.4) and faced natural regression, despite a significant increase in playing time this year. He should also be considered a decent bounce-back candidate for 2024, assuming his playing time and strong pass-rush metrics continue.
• Aidan Hutchinson and Alex Highsmith are two of the best examples of players who should see positive regression in 2024, based on their high-end pass-rush metrics and playing time. Both players overperformed in 2022, with Highsmith doing so with the second-highest mark at his position (+5.3). Now each will have a chance to bounce back in a big way in 2024 after coming well short of their expected sack totals this season.
DEFENSIVE TACKLE POSITIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES
• The ping-pong effect of expected regression either way from one year to the next along the defensive line affects almost all players, including one of the greatest overachievers last season: Quinnen Williams (+5.5). This year, Williams finished with only 5.5 sacks despite his continued high-end playing time and pass-rush metrics. Considering that Williams’ underlying metrics actually increased this season, he should not be viewed with any less value than last offseason, when he was many fantasy managers' dynasty DT1. As long as we understand that sacks are wildly unstable, Williams arguably increased his value in 2023.
• Dexter Lawrence and Derrick Brown both finished near the bottom of this list last season and continue to be among the unluckiest interior defenders in the league at producing sacks. Lawrence and Brown boast strong pass-rush metrics and playing time, so they are worth betting on heading into 2024 as potential positive regression candidates.
Lastly, we'll look at the larger group of players who finished closer to their expected outcomes. Finishing among this crop of players and within a reasonable range of expected sack totals is not a bad thing. It should just be viewed as what it is — expected production. Some players' expected totals are higher than others based on playing time and pass-rush metrics, which makes finishing in this range impressive in its own right.
EDGE DEFENDERS WITH EXPECTED PRODUCTION
• Bryce Huff did slightly surpass expectations when looking at his year as a whole, but 10 sacks for a player who played only 316 pass-rush snaps and finished within two sacks of his expected total is impressive nonetheless. His elite pass-rush metrics, which include an 86.8 pass-rush grade (10th), 22.8% win rate (third) and 20.9% pressure rate (second), make him a very intriguing pending unrestricted free agent heading into 2024.
• Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, Haason Reddick, Maxx Crosby and Bradley Chubb all hit double-digit sacks and finished within this expected range.
• IDP managers likely had higher hopes for Yannick Ngakoue, Azeez Ojulari and Zaven Collins, among others, but performed as expected when looking at their pass-rush metrics and playing time.
DEFENSIVE TACKLES WITH EXPECTED PRODUCTION
• The interior defensive line position often boasts much lower sack totals than the edge defender position, making the range of outcomes much tighter in this middle group that met expectations.
Understanding that delivering above expectations in terms of sacks is a big indicator for regression, and underdelivering can mean the opposite, is important when looking at these metrics. While it isn’t a guarantee that this will happen, as highlighted throughout, it’s more often than not the case, especially at the high and low ends of the spectrum.
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